Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

The lucky shots trouble me too.
I'll be honest here, I am a cheat! I always save my games at the begining of a turn, and if I loose something important to a 1% shot, or if my last milan round fails to hit the enemies last tank, despite a 99% hit chance, I simply load the turn up again. It is because to do otherwise makes the previous two hours of playing feel pointless, if everything else was done right.
I am torn though, because I do see that there should be wild cards, and a 1% chance to hit, is still a very real chance. In games terms however, I sometimes think I want some things to be more concrete.
I sometimes wish you could have a 'fluke cut-off' point ie below 10% to hit, will always miss and above 90% will always hit. That sort of thing.
Or an optional firing button that instead of firing each shot seperately, it would fire all 'at once' and guarantee your odds ie if you have 6 shots and a 50% hit chance you would always get 3 hits.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Statistics don't work that way, you may fire 6 shots at 50% and still come off with 0 hits IRL http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif It's as tossing the coin, you can get a short-term sequence of same results, however in the long run they tend to even out.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Sorry, you miss my point. I'm talking about deliberately suspending that short term 'real life' chance in favour of the long run results.
This is because I 'get' nothing from winning or losing a battle when the lucky shots might affect the final result.
The very facts and figures used in SPMBT surely come from 'long-run' results, so sometimes, it would be nice to actually get those results.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

rfisher,
I understand
I disagree
http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

If you fire a milan at an enemy tank with very low % and hit it and destroy it, do you reload because it "shouldn't" hit it?

Saying that you cheat (or "cheat") to get favourable results in shots/battles and then saying you have a problem with low percentile hits, is...lame to put it nicely.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

I personaly find that low hit %[1-5%]to hit more then say 20%

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

I'd say that the low % hits are more "visible" - ie you take 90% hitting as something ordinary, but notice each hit at 2% ...

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

that makes sence,i will try to run a test tonght battle and see what the results are.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

And you're right, it is lame, but let me explain myself.
Its clear that most of you guys are very serious about this game and its subject and are very knowledgable on how to fight battles, what to fight them with etc.
I, on the other hand am an idiot on these matters, but am trying to learn. Lucky shots (weather in my favour or not) can give a battle such a radically different outcome that it is hard to discern weather a tactic I'm trying has worked or failed.
Doing my little reloading cheat, has shown me numerous times that you can do exactly the same thing the second time round, and the results can be the complete polar opposite to what happened the first time.
This is fine, but you can surely see how it is difficult to learn from?

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

If you need to redo/load something to make your plan work, then perhaps your plan isn't the best as it is. Try to avoid getting hit.

I understand you, but the only way to learn the game is by losing, big.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Your plan should be robust enough so that few lucky hits don't upset it and at the same time flexible enough to change direction when losses are too high. Unfortunately, as all of us, you have to lose big time before winning big time http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

I never lost big time! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

@rfisher:
If you want to know the important lesson here it is that a plan that can be thwarted by a single or even two or three lucky hits by the enemy (or bad luck misses from your troops) in a short time is a bad plan. You need some redundancy in your approach. Lucky hits and misses WILL happen and should happen.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Ok guys! Give the man some breathing space here! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif
Yes reloading is a standard way to improve your knowledge, tactics and gaming style. One word of advise though. There are some great scenarios & campaigns in the game. Don't "waste" them in the "learning phase". They're so much fun to play when you have "settled" on your game style and play them """honestly""". What I'm saying is if you think you need more "training" don't do it with the scenarios that appeal to you. Manage your future enjoyment!!! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/cool.gif

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Good training is also PBEM against someone experienced (if you don't mind you'd get destroyed in the process) http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif But as he'll be mercilessly killing your units, you will see how he prepares his luck.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

True, just be careful to not kick his ***, during a whole battle or against a unit or two of his or he might start thinking you cheat.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

The only "compassionate" PBEM opponent would be your mother, provided she had some recent victories so her motherely instincts can resurface. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Hmmm, I'd better be clear: I only cheat against the computer!
I've never played a PBEM game let alone cheated in one, honest! (Can you do the reloading cheat thing in PBEM games?)

Anyway, I'd like to flog this one to death for those of you not yet bored of my dumb comments, as the extremes of the lucky shots still trouble me. By extremes, I mean the shots that hit with a 1% chance, as well as the shots that miss with a 99% chance.
This appears to be a deliberate decision that there are no absolutes, and it is fair enough, but I feel that even a 1 in 100 chance is too generous in many cases.
As an extreme example, a tank with an unstabilised gun is bouncing along a rough road, full tilt and taking pot shots at a sniper. With the best intentions of the gunner,the sniper is still far less than 1% of the total area that the gun might be pointing at when the trigger is pulled (even allowing for an area effect weapon, there is a lot of sky for the shell to sail off into), so a 1% hit chance is exceedingly generous, yet as long as the target is in range, this is what the game gives it.
And I see a lot of 1% to hit chances in the games I play.

So I think that the real reason we feel we witness an excess of low probability hits, is not just because they are memorable, though that is undoubtable a large part of it, but rather it is because there is an excess of low probabilty targets being offered as viable, when really they should be counted as targets at less than 1% chance of hitting and therefore be ineligible as a target.

I've got other statistical queries, but I should probably receive my beasting for this post first.

Be gentle.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

I am not sure about that. For example in the greek borders every year there are deaths of illegal immigrants, drug carriers etc trying to pass through the borders and in at least a couple of cases each year there will be a misfire from a dropped gun (greek border patrol) that managed to kill a few of them on the opposite ridge or something. The chances of that happening must be under 1% too, but it happens.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

Personally I think percentages are fine, but they only tell part of the story on the battlefield. The Fog of War plays into these things on a regular basis, certainly one of the strengths of the game. The only time I might belabour a percentage is when I'm down to my last rounds. In training high scores on the range are measure of proficiency, and the hope is the more one becomes an extension the weapon better the chance the weapon will do what it was designed to do.

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

I personally think that strategy,morale,and training is more inportant then woieing about the percentages.

once played a game{one of my firsts in mbt]the enemy was getting lucky all over the place but thank to strategy,training,and morale i was able to pull of a draw

spelling sucks!

the battlefield is were it all comes together or fall's apart[as i leard last week]

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

BTW, and to return to the subject, the primary "cheat or not" test would include multiple shots with the same "to-hit" probability. "Sampling" the whole probability range... well it takes some more "advanced" statistics.
I mean, after all, the question is if a "reported" 3% hit probability is statistically 3% also. Right?

Re: Results of 200 shots.
 

The initial hit probability displayed in the game you see before you fire is the basic, unmodified chance of a hit. (call it the units WAG ) It is only after a unit fires that the factors such as experience, morale, leadership, weapon accuracy etc etc get factored in.

Then there are always random numbers tossed in. If the game didn't use random numbers to simulate that all things in life and especially combat is not simply 1+1=2 the game would be boring and predictable. Sometimes you do get lucky, sometimes no matter how well prepared you are S**T HAPPENS and that is why those intial to -hit probabilities should be taken as a rough guidelines only.

Also, the to-hit percentage is based in the weapon in slot 1 only so if you have a squad with a rifle in slot one and a Inf AT weapon in slot four and your aiming at a tank you're not getting the Inf AT weapons probability and, as I mentioned above , your not getting the morale, experience etc ( and random ) factors. Those only get calculated once you "pull the trigger"

Don