Quote:
Renegade 13 said:
- Israel invades Lebanon on the ground, says it's just defending it's sovereignty and trying to root out the terrorist Hezbollah.
|
Basically happening right now, only it isn't a full-scale invasion (at least last I checked this morning). They are blowing up buildings, and firing mortar shells into Lebanon, blockading ports with their navy, and blew up the runways; but so far, no invasion.
Quote:
Renegade 13 said:
- Syria joins in on Lebanon's side, with Iran joining a little later.
|
I'm going to disagree on a technicality here. Iran and Syria give ideological support to Hezbollah, and more under-the-table financial and munitions support, but Syria will not go in on Lebanon's side. If anything, they would go in on Hezbollah's side, but I don't think that will happen because it would be suicide. Syria and Lebanon are enemies, and Syria was evicted from Lebanon IIRC about a year ago. Hezbollah is NOT Lebanon, it is a militant group with a political wing inside of Lebanon.
Quote:
Renegade 13 said:
- Now it's Israel against Lebanon, Syria and Iran. Israel can't take that much punishment, so it calls on it's allies in the region and around the world to help out...the US included. This would leave the US in quite the dilemma. Do you help the state that you've supported militarily for the past 60 years, or do you stand back and see what happens when the dust settles?
|
Israel wouldn't need to call in help. If Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and for good measure I'll even throw in Jordan and the Hamas portion of the Palestinan forces... if all of them went to war with Israel, they would be in a bind fighting on multiple fronts, but Israel would win handily. Israel has total air and sea superiority in the region, and has superior well trained ground forces. Any large resistance would be quickly decapitated, and degenerate into much smaller guerilla skirmishes, where Israel is not as strong as far as resources and tactics, but such fighting in no way would threaten the existence of the state of Israel. After the armies of the arab nations are quickly dispatched, there might be international help for Israel to police the area, but it won't really be needed. Of course, it will happen anyway, as western nations get another taste of imperialism and get their quick fix from the resources in the Middle East.
Quote:
Renegade 13 said:
- Some of Israels allies join in, followed by a whole bunch of the Arabic nations in the area.
|
Should all these countries be so foolish to try to challenge an obviously superior foe, the rest of the Arab countries would not join in, because they know after the initial defeat of their neighbors (which would happen before anyone else has a chance to join in the fight on the side of Israel), there will be many more countries to defeat if another attempt is made. They will opt to save their own necks, and not get involved.
Quote:
Renegade 13 said:
- War spreads all over...
|
I still think war will eventually happen on a very large scale, just not from this alone. More likely candidates for causing a global conflict would be a Middle East that is already chaotic from perrenial clashes between Israel and its neighbors, with the added unrest caused by poor transition of power in Iraq from US Military to Iraqis, being ignited by an overflowing spat between India and Pakistan. Since the US has given support to India in their nuclear program while spurning Pakistan, the military government of Pakistan will seek nuclear power through other means, most likely Russia via Iran. An escalating fight between India and Pakistan will cause a corresponding buildup of troops in Iran and China; Iran because they will be allies of Pakistan because of a shared nuclear program, China because they will be concerned about fighting spilling over into their territory. Iran would take the opportunity of this distraction to quietly move forces into Iraq, where the pupils of Iran's religious extremist leaders will have solidified their power. China's buildup of troops will escalate things more between India and Pakistan, and some of their agression will be directed back at China, since it would be much easier for China to take the parts of Pakistan and India that they still claim if the two are busy fighting each other; an initially defensive move then becomes seen as agression. China getting involved will get North Korea involved, because it would be an opportunistic time to flex what might they have and maybe try to cross into South Korea, or maybe just toss some more missiles around. Once North Korea gets involved in things, Japan gets really worried, and by this time, North American and European governments will be getting involved thinking "how the #ell did all this happen?"
