Re: North will prevail at the end
 

or maybe play the lottery because that bad luck will be countered with an extreme chance of good luck!

Re: North will prevail at the end
 

You mean an indie province did better than my nicely equiped Son of Niefel! (Siiighhh) http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/frown.gif

Re: North will prevail at the end
 

Happy Holiday all! The only victory that I can claim is that I watched others battle to the end. At least this game I got to watch.

NVA - do you mean the Northern Virginia Army? I have to disagree that they won the conflict by themselves.

Re: North will prevail at the end
 

Bah humbug! Happy Horrordays! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

NVA - North Vietnamese Army.

Re: North will prevail at the end
 

Hm i think i have the solution now :
I don't remember the battle exactly ( i.e. your gear etc. ) but an ID has a base strength of 18-20 .
Iirc you had as weapon a blood thorn , no strength boosters .

So depending on your ID you would have had 20-22 ( wpndamage of bloodthorn 2 ) + 2d6 oe vs. 20 protection + 2d6 oe damage throw .
If i am right ( not really sure if i used the probability right http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif ) you should have a chance of about 75% to do damage .

With 18 attack vs. 13 defense you have 85,5% chance to inflict damage .
With 24 strength+wpndamage vs. 20 protection you have 79,7% hitting chance , with 23 strength+weapondamage ( if you used the Cimejes ID ) you have 72,6% chance to inflict damage .

If you hit but don't do damage then i think no blood is shown . So you can't say if you did hit but did no damage or simply didn't hit .
The new probabilities for 2 attacks should be then :
Cimejes ID :
Probability to hit and do damage : 0,855x0,726 = 0,62073
-> Probability to do no damage = 1 - 0,62073 = 0,37927
for 2 attacks : 0,1438...

Other IDs :
Probability to hit and do damage : 0,855x0,797 = 0,681435
-> Probability to do no damage = 1 - 0,62073 = 0,3185
for 2 attacks : 0,1014...

So depending on your ID you used you would have a chance to do no damage with both attacks in a battle round of either 14,38% or 10,14% .

For 4 attacks it should be then 2,06% or 1,03% .

Thats still rare but possible .

And there is finally 1 additional thing :
Are you sure your IDs had 18 attack ?
Every 20 points of fatigue lower the attack value by 1 .
I am not sure if that is shown .
With buffing + encumberance you should have at least about 20 fatigue before fighting though , maybe after the first combat round even 40 .

In case these values are not shown correcty you would have had an attack of only 17 in first combat round and of only 16 in 2nd combat round maybe .
Every point of such reduction gives almost 7% less hitting chance .
If this is true your odds would be even a bit worse .

Depending if my Last theory is true or not the chance for happening what happened to your ID should be in the range of 1:20 - 1:100 .
So you still had very bad luck but the odds weren't as bad as you thought ( if all my theories were true , which might not be the case http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif ) .

Stats
 

87% of all statistics are made up.
Yours sound sooo convincing though Boron that I would give them a 1% chance of being incorrect. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif
Are you a mathematician?...seriously!
Kick a$$ doood.
Now work out what Stonebrows chances of winning were. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

Re: Stats
 

No i am no mathematician. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif

In case you don't have them already :
Download the att-def excel makro from sunrays site and look at saber cherries attacking odds thread here in the forum .
They are very helpful http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/smile.gif

Then a good rough estimation can be made in 30 seconds , a quite detailed one in about 2-3 minutes http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif

Re: Stats
 

Ah man Panther if those indy knights didnt route then you would of lost another ID.

Also Mictlan died this turn and Machaka put up Gift of Health.

Oh and it is snowing in New York again.

Re: Stats
 

Hey the Giants werent the second to go. Thanks Beorne http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif

Re: Stats
 

only vanheim and jotum left