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-   -   MP: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Running (http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/showthread.php?t=42590)

Jarkko March 18th, 2009 03:49 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, starts March 21st!
 
Heh, this is getting funyn :) Always interesting how people fail to understand basic chance calculation :) Just for the record, I am not a mathematician, I am a pharmacist, but that hasn't stopped me from being able to figure out how to calculate probabilities; probabilities are after all quite simple if you think about for more than three seconds :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Starshine_Monarch (Post 680819)
... Or they could just be trying to make a joke. I think you need to ease up on them about 80% more. I don't know if you're a math teacher or not but this is a *game*. You may as well leave your textbooks in the classroom for all the good they'll do you here.

No offense meant of course.

Heh mate :) It never did cross your mind that my above post per chance (sic) was a joke? All those smilies might have been a give away, you know ;) Perhaps *you* should lighten up a bit, and not believe everybody are dead serious all the time; it is after all about a *game* :) Still, when people talk about bananas and somebody walks in and trumps the discussion with "But apples are always red!", it does leave one a bit baffled.

No offense meant, of course :)

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dragar (Post 680832)
there is a large and one would think inherently false assumption in the derivation of there being a 79% chance of someone not showing up - it assumes the actions of all participants are independent

The joke here is that nobody claimed a 79% chance of *somebody* not showing up. You *are* actually missing the point, are you not? :)

The point, I believe, was that it is practically 99% certain each individual will show up. You know, one might get run over by a car, the computer might fry, etc. Nobody can be 100% sure they will even wake up tomorrow. The ~79% chance thus derivated has no hard evidence behind it, but it is based on the fact that nothing is certain in life; lets give the unforseen a 1% chance. As a matter of fact, in human sciences it is customary to give that 1% chance for unforeseen phukk-ups per individual, because life has proven it *is* true: There is always about 1% chance something phukks up in an unforeseen way when you are dealing with humans :)

Thus the derived 21% (which I still think is a very clever gig from Cleveland, my hat is off in respect!) chance is not the chance that *one* player fails to appear (as you seem to be believe), it is the chance that one *or more* players wouldn't make it. It would be very bold indeed to assume people who sign up to not make it in 79% of the cases; in fact, if that was true, basically no MP games ever would launch :eek:


It would be interesting to calculate the chance for one or more people failing to comprehend this post and getting angry. But given human nature, it is practically guaranteed somebody will not understand and get angry ;) :p I believe I have now pissed off enough people (always a smart move to piss off people right before you start a game where diplomatic skills are needed... :doh:).


To Incabulous: If you want a better than 50% chance the answer is 23 :)

Starshine_Monarch March 18th, 2009 04:01 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, starts March 21st!
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Jarkko (Post 680915)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Starshine_Monarch (Post 680819)
... Or they could just be trying to make a joke. I think you need to ease up on them about 80% more. I don't know if you're a math teacher or not but this is a *game*. You may as well leave your textbooks in the classroom for all the good they'll do you here.

No offense meant of course.

Heh mate :) It never did cross your mind that my above post per chance (sic) was a joke? All those smilies might have been a give away, you know ;) Perhaps *you* should lighten up a bit, and not believe everybody are dead serious all the time; it is after all about a *game* :) Still, when people talk about bananas and somebody walks in and trumps the discussion with "But apples are always red!", it does leave one a bit baffled.

No offense meant, of course :)

Never once did cross my mind. Dang, now I feel like an idiot. To me it just sounded like you were making fun of them.

Lavaere March 18th, 2009 05:10 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, starts March 21st!
 
If we have a couple days to post pretenders, then were the game at. Because I ain't seeing no 'Magellan'

chrispedersen March 18th, 2009 05:28 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, starts March 21st!
 
Pretender all set and ready to go..just need a place to send it too.

cleveland March 18th, 2009 07:43 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, starts March 21st!
 
Right. I'm home now, haven't yet gotten around to uploading everything to llamaserver. I have a conference call in a few hours that I have to prepare for...I'll set it up during the con call. It's not like anything will actually be accomplished during the con call, whose sole purpose is to ensure all members have prepared for the con call, and are sober enough to operate a telephone. After that, you're free to zone out. :D

cleveland March 18th, 2009 09:32 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, starts March 21st!
 
http://www.llamaserver.net/gameinfo.cgi?game=Magellan

:up:

So if you're new to llamaserver, have no fear, it's very simple to join the game. First, install the 2 mods linked through the above link (i.e. CBM 1.41 and Standards & Streamers). Then activate them. Then design your pretender using the Dom3 pretender creation tool. Then follow llamaserver's FAQs:
http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/showthread.php?t=35160

GrudgeBringer March 19th, 2009 01:42 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Upload Pretenders!
 
I guess we now need to Re-Patch to 3.23b before we start.

They said it was on the main Dom page but I didn't see it, if we could get someone to put a link in here it would surely speed up the start and cut down on the confusion.:confused:

fungalreason March 19th, 2009 01:44 PM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Upload Pretenders!
 
Yeah it's on this page in the lower right: http://www.shrapnelgames.com/Illwint...DOM3_page.html

cleveland March 21st, 2009 12:29 AM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Upload Pretenders!
 
2 announcements:

1) Pretenders are due in around 8 hours, so make sure you get them in!

2) House Rule: No Trans-Continental sailing is allowed across province #215 (aka "The Maelstrom")

A last-minute announcement, I know, but I think it's necessary to avoid a potentially unfair situation...Long story short, if a sailing nation starts adjacent to that province, they'll have sailing access directly into another player's capital. By forbidding trans-continental (i.e. from one continent to the other), this problem is avoided. Flavor: a massive maelstrom perpetually swirls at the center of this province; no sane sailor would dare try to cross it. Any Questions?

cleveland March 21st, 2009 11:06 AM

Re: Magellan: All-EA Nations CBM game, 3D spherical map, Upload Pretenders!
 
So pretenders were due 3hrs ago, and 3 players haven't yet submitted.

But it turns out to be a blessing in disguise. This will give me a chance to alter to map to eliminate the unsightly house rule I had to announce last night.

I've sent PMs to the 3 players asking if they still intend to play. Hopefully they won't all submit before I finish modding the map!


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