Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

I believe the following to be a very good appraisal of the situation and how Turkey will end up I believe supporting Finland and Sweden's applications to join NATO. I also like it's sourced from the Middle East; the perspective is valuable in that lest we forget, Turkey is a Islamic nation.
https://themedialine.org/top-stories...weden-finland/

Another perspective but first, Humeyra Pamuk co-author of the next is from Turkey and in Ankara for Reuters.
https://news.yahoo.com/nato-expects-...152511980.html

Well, what are we doing? The normal diplomatic stuff but materially a whole bunch of new advanced F-16 fighters. "Uncle Joe" is already laying the groundwork for this and you can expect bi-partisan support for it.

And yes, the F-35 is still off the table since Turkey bought and has since fielded the S-400 system.

This vote could happen possibly by the end of this week.

The Baltic Sea and the strategic Gotland, Fårö and Gotska Sandön Islands are the major issues for countries like Norway and Germany and by extension-the U.S. and others (Like Finland and Sweden).

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

I'm betting "The Transcarpathian Beavers." sounds better in Ukrainian......

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

Vol. 1 or Vol. 2?

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

I wouldn't bet big money on it going either way.

I only have a urethral understanding of what the Swedes or Finns may have done to annoy the Turks but thinking perhaps it involves the Kurds in some way but........ the bigger and more diverse an alliance gets, the more chance of internal conflict arising. We'll have to wait and see how this plays out.

The range of possibilities is wide

Not that long ago in the big scheme of things Russian, Great Britain and the United States were "allies" too.......

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

I believe the following is a fair assessment of the current situation in the Ukraine.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...f89d655015bef6

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

I haven't posted anything on this story until I saw this one that supports some of what I've seen come out of the UK government sources. This is more about what is described in this article on what's going on "behind the lines" that I referred to above concerning the UK sources.

From the below as to the source of this article:
"Speaking with DW on Saturday, Nico Lange, a German lawmaker and chief of staff for the country's Federal Minister of Defense,"

Might be worth a look, the "dinner bell is ringing!!" :p
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...34a0fbf742799e

UPDATE:

After dinner the following is reported to support what was posted above Russian appointed administrators are being assassinated in Russian held territory for some time now.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...87eabbaaf484fe

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

I find the following worthwhile in posting here as it represents a major shift to the situation in the Ukraine specifically in the Kharkiv region in the North. It appears a rout of Russian forces is at hand in that area as reported by MOD/DOD and some very well-known military thinktanks. If so; this is very bad news for the South and possibly Crimea (Though for now that might be a reach.).

What is important here is the clock has shifted in favor of the Ukraine. They need to keep pushing and maintain pressure on the Russian forces. And more importantly, it looks like they'll make it to Winter as this will allow them to train, resupply, rearm and more importantly reduce the OPTEMPO.

The "suspicious" or "contrarian" side in me is wondering if Russia is doing this on purpose. Maybe they might just want to consolidate some of their forces on the border and shift the rest to the South or just reenforce Crimea. As the article points out, "Amid the progress of Ukrainian forces, Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said on Sunday that Russia would be prepared to sit down for peace talks."

Russia's goal will be to sue for terms to reestablish the 2014 border. However, Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s President they intend to reclaim their rightful pre-2014 border which even Russia had approved after the fall of the Soviet Union by UN resolution.

My answer would be to take down that bridge from Crimea to Russia and "bottle up" their Black Sea Fleet North of it and isolate the rest to the South of it unless Turkey will allow them to withdraw the remaining ships through the Turkish Straits (the Bosporus and Dardanelles). Obviously, this would also cripple their ability to both reenforce and resupply their units. I would see what Russia offered, that being said if the terms aren't acceptable the bridge must go. :p

Of course, the last 3 paras are my simple analysis and opinion of the current situation. :D
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...7f123421faca73
And related to the above...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...9c5699240ee9df

In war you'll find out who your friends really are by the weapons they supply you.

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

That bridge from Crimea to Russia has been an obvious target from the start and I've thought that Ukraine must be waiting for just the right moment to render it unusable.

Timing is everything...

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

Now that bridge is in range of their new missiles along HIMARS/MARS II/MLRS-E rockets.

"Great battles are won with artillery."

Napoleon Bonaparte

I would say"...with better artillery."

Russia had the advantage and instead of using it on the battlefield as they did to great effect in WWII, they chose to focus mostly on shelling cities beyond the front for no tactical or strategic purpose. It sure wasn't for "winning the hearts and minds" of the population living in those areas.

You have to keep your "eye on the ball" which is where the enemy is directly around you. Ukraine is showing us how a smaller focused force can be effective against a larger and "better" equipped one.

I'm certain some western armies will/have taken away many "lesson learned" from this war to date and beyond.

But it is too soon to say the Russians are completely out of this war. However, reports in the last 24hrs. are indicating great quantities of tanks and other vehicles and large stocks of ammo are just being abandoned on the battlefield.
https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-war-.../32029623.html

There's plenty more out there besides this above. This from 8hrs. ago.

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: International Defence Green and White Papers
 

That one photo of the Orlan-10 with duct tape on the horizontal stabilizer was "interesting" and the one showing "The vehicle was partly covered by a tarpaulin that would have helped to hide it from drones. "
........ had it been camo or netted maybe but a BRIGHT GREEN tarp only attracts attention and the way it's been set up seems to show it full of rainwater...........thinking something else was going on.....repairs maybe