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Is The Computer Gaming Industry Finished?
Over the Last few years we have seen many long time PC game developers go under, be aquired, or simply close their doors because they saw no future in the market, could not sustain themselves, or simply could not aford to continue to develop their products.
In the day where consule is king, and one of the largest game publishers, Activision, dedicates 73% of its gaming resources exclusively toward consule games and only a pitance of 23% to PC games, has we begun to see the end of PC Gaming? The spactacular failures of such staple PC games as Moo3 to mention one, in the Last year have only added fuel to the fire that now threatens to devour what is left of the once dominate PC market. Microsoft, Activision, and many other staple game publishers and developers are all gearing up for strictly consule games have clearly shown us that we as PC games are on the short list for extinction. The list is so short that even TechTV has altered its game play magainze eXtended play to focus exclusively on consule games and even have gone so far as to rename the once PC dominate show Xplay. (To denote that is now is dedicated to consule games) In the Last two years we have seen a significant reduction in PC game releases and games that were slated for PC release have been put on hold, pushed back, or out right cancled in favor of cnsule games. It was discussed in a thread a while back about the possibility that SEIV could be developed for Consule play in addition to many other fine games offered by Shrapnels, and if true great, but what will that mean to us, the PC players? I suppose the sme as it did to those who used to play such games as board games. The market will always be there but not at the level it was at its peek. Game developers Lucas Arts and ID Software, have both stated recently that they expect to phase out PC game development completely no later the then end of 2005. We all know from past experience where ID software leads, the industry will follow. I shudder to think what it will be like having to sit in front of my old TV and play a game designed for a plasma tv, an HD system that I can ill aford, and try and play a game of SEV. [ November 07, 2003, 12:50: Message edited by: Atrocities ] |
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Computer games will still be around, there are just some games that you can not play with a controller, like most war and strategy games.
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Hey Atrocities, check your Calendar. It isn't April Fool's Day.
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AT may be on to some things here.
1) The main game genres that sell big nowadays (1PS, RTS, flight simulator, etc) do well on consoles, which are cheaper and also specifically built to handle the graphics for these games. Also, the transition of internet access (away from strictly PC's to cable/satellite/console as well) will eat up the PC's share of MP Online gaming as well. And a LOT of games now out are dual releases, PC and console. 2) The genres that do do better on PC's (TBS, 4X, strategic simulations) are no longer driving the market (if indeed they ever did). These games will certainly still be produced, but probably more and more by small outfits like MM and Shrapnel. Which is not a bad thing, as we all can testify... 3) These games are all starting to look alike. You can complain about mass production and degraded quality all you want (and rightly so), but let's face it, how many variations on "run around a maze and blow baddies up" are really necessary?!? When was the Last time a really groundbreaking game (like Myst) came out? These genres are reaching the limit of their capacity. |
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Myst was a game like no other. It defined PC gaming as a genuen market and never looked back. To bad they closed their doors. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon9.gif The Sims most recently have been the ticket and before them was Everquest (bla bla bla bla everquest) Half-life came out but it was Counter-Strike that made it a success. There have been many hits, but recently the market has declined dramatically in quality and inspiration. There are really no new games coming out, they are all formula X or sequels. Most good PC games are being converted to consule as that is a blooming market right now. Hey why not, I mean you have to follow the money in order to stay in business right? But the flip side to that is that the PC market will become a neglected redheaded step child. And that is no april fools joke deccan. |
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People have been sounding the death knell for PC games for ten year Atrociites. You just had this stunning revalation today? http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
As long as there are still PC's there will still be PC games. They may not dominate the market like they used to. But 90% of what was sold during the hey day was trash anyway. You may have to wait a few months for the console games to be ported to the PC, instead of teh other way around like used to happen, but it will still happen. And there will always be a place for games like SE4 that frankly don't work on a console, and don't have the kind of sales to make putting it on a console feasible. By the way, where did you get this rumor that SEIV was being developed as a console game? I am not saying it's not true, but this is the first I have heard of it, and frankly it doesn't make a lot of sense in my opinion. All of the reasons SE4 is only available Online and not in retail stores are even MORE true for console games. Edit: To remove some comments that sounded harsher then I intended. Sorry Atrocities. Geoschmo [ November 07, 2003, 12:14: Message edited by: geoschmo ] |
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Money rules everything. The money market for gaming these days has become kids. Kids whose parents buy them everything and let them live at home till age 20-something. They get jobs that maintain the Mustang that mommy and daddy bought for them and the rest goes into feeding the (usually) multiple game boxes connected the TV to be used for entertainment purposes when they aren't out at one of those stupid movies made for that same age (translation: "Jack ***" etc.).
Ahhh, but I digress. IMHO (yeah, right!), there will always be someone to make games for the PC platform. After all, if EVERY company quit doing it, SOMEONE would have to wake up one day and smell the customer's coffee and think, "Hey, we could be the ONLY company making a game for the PC! No competition!" (and then the cycle would start all over again as everyone hopped on the band wagon because 90% of the businesses out there don't have an independent thougt...hence the overloaded bandwagon of stupid-*** reality TV shows!) |
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i agree aswell. The industry is moving back to its old format. Small companies making games they want to make and dedicated following. I am guessing in about 10 years or so this will take off and companies will join in on the band wagon. Wash Rinse Repeat. Or we will go the way of board top games... Which is ok as well.
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The gaming industry in general is slowly approaching maturity. Whats going to happen is the same as happens in every other industry that grows out of the boom phase. The mass marked will be dominated by a few large companies with some niche companies (like Shrapnel) providing games for the fringe markets (like us http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif ). Expect to see an even higher number of bankruptcies, mergers and acquisitions in the gaming industry over the next few years.
PC vs Console. Some types of games just plays better on one type of system. But, it’s the money who rules; if there’s a market then there will be suppliers. |
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[ November 07, 2003, 12:44: Message edited by: Atrocities ] |
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If you didn't worry abotu the interface, but just about the requirements of the stock game, how primative, how old of a consol could you run SE IV on?
I would be most amused to find, one day, a SNES port of Space Empires IV. |
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Really if you stop to think about it, SEIV is pretty much point and click. You can include a game keyboard for adding names and such to ships, but for the most part set data files can handle that.
And since most consules now link, you can play head to head or even use an on line web site to host the game and turns much like PBW does now. I wonder if their is a market? This has all been discussed before though. I think under the topic or disucssion of alternate uses of SEIV or branching SEIV out. I honestly don't recall its been so long. |
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I guess you are right you wouldn't need a keyboard. I just don't see a market for a console Version of the game. I think you might be able to sell a fw copies if you could port it to work on a PDA or something.
My own dream would be to have it run on the machine that does the show at the planetarium. wouldn't that be cool? Course those are a tad bit expensive. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif |
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Unfortunetly I tend to agree that there really wouldn't be a strong market for the game. And that is truly a real shame for the game would bring something entirely new to the consule market.
Hey I have this philosophy that if they say its not going to work, or its a bad idea, jump on it. Examples: "Peanut butter, who would want to buy that? Here you can the formula for free." "You want tectronix to make something called a mouse? I think not." "Why would any one want a home computer Mr. Jobs?" "Who the hell will buy coffee from a coffee shop in seattle?" "You want me to invest in something called Microsoft? Sounds like a toilot paper product to me." DO IT AARON! Make it into a console game! Do it now!!!!!!! Oh by the way I think this is the original thread on the subject. I have not read all of the old Posts yet so I could be wrong. http://www.shrapnelgames.com/cgi-bin...3;t=004715;p=3 [ November 07, 2003, 13:59: Message edited by: Atrocities ] |
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Wouldn't need a keyboard? If you don't have a keyboard how are you going to mod anything! Cutting and pasting everything would be a real pain in the butt. As would those little on screen keyBoards that you point and click at! The HORROR!!!
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Everything revolves around the almighty dollar, so Atrocities' prophecy of doom doesn't sound all that implausible http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
Why exactly are console games cheaper to produce than on PCs? The only thing I can think of that would reduce cost would be the lack of responsibility console game makers have after they release a game. On the PC a game maker could spend the next 5 years patching and resolving problems with their inital design (multiply this time by 50 to get an idea of how long it could take to fix MOO3). But if you put your game on a console, there's little to no updating or patching required (ok, it's required just as much on the PC side, but console game makers have the excuse that they can't update their software as easily as they could on the PC). Granted that Online capabilities & the inclusion of hard drives in newer consoles (ie: X-Box, and the upcomming PS3 or whatever it'll be called) are making this "post-release quality control" easier, but I don't see console game makers ever fretting over their product the way the way they do when it's developed on the PC ('cause us PC people are picky & savvy, deservedly so). Anyways, I don't think the hardware vendors on the PC side will sit idly by and watch their support structre vanish like a fart in the wind. Video card manufactures make money hand over fist by cranking out a new video card every 2 months, and they aren't going to let that money just dry up. And I don't think we would have optical mice this soon had PC games not been around, so i'm sure there are other technologies out there on the cusp of production that are strongly driven by the existance of PC gaming. Would we realize the existance of a great game right away if there wasen't a glut of garbage games to compare it to? That could be worrisome... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon9.gif |
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Feh... A few years from now there will be very little distinction between a home PC and a
console anyway. Just as the gap between your palmtop and your phone is narrowing, and the gap between your phone and your digicamera, and your camera / portable data storage, and your portable data storage / mobile mp3 player... "Serious" PCs (for commercial and industrial use) will remain a seperate market but as the average power of the hardware continues to outstrip the actual requirements of all but the most demanding user, any home machine will be able to take on the role of any other with ease. Also, all the hardware in your house will be automatically wirelessly networking together, sharing resources, whispering behind your back and secretly perverting your next-generation intelligent kitchen appliances, which will completely obsfucate any remaining distinction between the platforms anyway. 10 years from now your copy of SEVII will follow you from TV to microwave as you walk around the house, and when your fleet runs out of organics the fridge will automatically order you a pizza. The Blob is coming! You have been warned... |
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I'm really surprised that you've noticed the primary fact of the 'game industry' -- money rules all -- and not recognized what have got to be the strongest forces driving this shift. The all-important profit margin is much improved by selling both hardware and software. A "PC" is a generic thing that can be bought from any of thousands of dealers all over the world. A 'gaming console' is a proprietary device that you can claim patents on and so make a bundle of extra money by keeping anyone else from selling it. A legal monopoly! Also, has it occured to anyone that piracy might be a problem in the game industry? The 'generic' PC is a vulnerability in that sense, too. As a general purpose machine it is very easy to manipulate and crack any attempts at copy protection of your software, not to mention basic game security that prevents cheating (whether single or multi-player). A proprietary console helps dramatically in all of these areas. Sure, you can hack a console and/or copy a game cartridge but it's far harder and so it's done far less often.
I think MM will have to resort to something clever to reduce piracy of SE V very much. Perhaps the 'multiplayer' mode should require an external 'third-party' server that requires a commercial license. The 'client' (the regular game) would have to have a unique registration code from MM to run on the server. Only sell the server to a few carefully vetted people and let them run the on-line multiplayer systems, and co-operate with MM in watching for faked codes (of course the 'codes' will be figured out... but if you control the multiplayer field you can still catch the crackers). That way, at least 'pirates' could only play the solo game, not the full game. The incentive to buy would be strong if you wanted a serious opponent smarter than the AI. [ November 07, 2003, 17:14: Message edited by: Baron Munchausen ] |
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I disagree with making "smarter" security protections to protect the software. It is a losing battle that can never be won. No matter what you design others will still break/hack/whatever it and do what they want with it.
Time and time again I have purchased a game only to have it not work/work poorly due to the copyright protections the company built into it. When this happened what did I do? I went and downloaded a simple patch that removed those offending protections that hindered my game enjoyment. Special servers you say? You mean like B.net? Ermm... well they have that cracked now as well and I doubt MM could afford the same legal fight to prevent it that Blizzard can. PS: Software piracy isn't as big a problem as many think it is and companies attempt to lead us to believe it is. Most of the people who pirate the software wouldn't have purchased it in the first place or spent their money purchasing a different piece of software and ran out for that one but still want it. This being the case they either A> wouldn't buy it OR B> couldn't afford to buy it. There have been studies and surveys to demonstrate this but they are largely ignored. The companies want to have an easy scapegoat when profits fall instead of saying it is something they did (damn those hackers and pirates making my perfect business plan fail!) PPS: Does anyone else hate those anti movie piracy commercials before movies in the theatres now? Hello, if I am in the theatre watching the movie I am probably not pirating it! And when did set designers/makeup people/whatever start getting payed on a royalty basis for the movies they make http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/confused.gif ? Just wondering. |
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Baron,
I don't really think the profit from selling the console is all that great compared to the games themselves, although I could be wrong about that. I am pretty sure the margins are much lower on the consoles, and couple that with the fact that for each console you might typiclaly buy a dozen or more games. But one thing I am fairly certain of is that profits from sales of consoles is not going to be a factor for a company like EA trying to decide whether or not to put their resources into a console game or a PC game since they don't sell consoles. But your point about piracy is certainly a factor I am sure. Think about what happens if you are at your buddies house and try this great new console game he bought. What do you do? You go buy one yourself. But if it's a great new PC game instead? "Hey man, great game. Burn me a copy will ya?" http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon9.gif |
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Actually... you can get "mod chips" for most (maybe even all) semi-modern console platforms that allow you to play copied games... going to CDs/DVDs was not a wise move on the part of console companies. And you know that hard drive on the Xbox? Just rent a game, copy it on the drive, and run it from there! CD drive + hard drive = piracy guarantee.
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Heh, I'm showing my age. I keep thinking of console games as cartdiges instead of the CD's they went to now.
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What really makes such things difficult are cartriges, which you can't copy or read without equipment specialized for each specific platform. This equipment can be reverse-engineered, so it is possible to copy games from cartriges or read them into your PC. However, that takes hardware manipulation and know-how, not a simple driver or program you can just download off the net, making it considerably more expensive and complex. For now, console gaming companies don't seem to be going the cartrige route, for the most part. Nintendo still does (I think), but as far as I know, they are the only ones doing so. |
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FYI on the hardware aspect: most console companies LOSE money on each console sold. They make it up with fees on the games.
That's one reason consoles are so much cheaper than PCs- PC hardware makes money, console hardware doesn't. |
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Jack Smith: Even Nintendo has stopped using cartridges for their consoles except the Gameboy. The Gamecube uses a mini-DVD. Both the PS2 and the X-Box use full sized DVDs that can even be used as DVD movie players. Game Consoles don't even use CD's anymore. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
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I think back to 1998-1999 when SSI and Microprose were Hasborged. The next year, practically everyone made a RTS game. Megacorps suits looking for hit games based on marketing misunderstandings dominated most of the money being spent on game development - or should I say, on graphics showcases with fragments of old games randomly glued on.
It's a bit depressing how much money and effort is spent developing uninteresting games. Perhaps it's an even worse proportion compared to the amount of uninteresting megacorp dreck churned out in the music, film, and pulp fiction industries. There are very few megacorp game releases that I have any interest in playing. There are practically zero games on consoles that I have any interest in, either. Megacorps have determined that the most money lies in sales at Walmart etc., to unsophisticated players. Consoles offer concepts that attract suits, like built-in obsolescence and difficulty to pirate. Megacorp offerings almost never interest me, though. If they all go to consoles only, it'll mainly just mean less distraction by crud. BTW, Myst is a puzzle, not a game. It only seems like a game for as long as the player doesn't notice he's just watching a bunch of QuickTime animations linked with hot-spots to click on. PvK [ November 07, 2003, 22:08: Message edited by: PvK ] |
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PvK |
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Also, technical support costs for this reason is probably very much more expensive for PCs than for consoles. |
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yeah, but if you like puzzles, it's great.
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I have to be honest with you all, I really see no need in my life for a console game system. I am sure that something might change my mind in time, but right now I prefer my PC. I will admit that I have had great fun with console games before, especially games like Zelda and stuff, but that would be the limit. I like games that are far more challenging and have a purpose and not just some midway game designed to rewrite history over the battle of middway. (Old NES game that you could not win)
Consoles are moving away from the two dementional Duke Nukem 2 side scrollers into the PC era of 3d high quality 3d graphics. (Been coming for year now.) Console games are a family gaming system, baby siter, and after school kiddy toy more then they are for adults. Adults prefer the privacy of a computer. (And the internet) One day I am sure both systems will completely merge into one system and your Console PC gaming Internet platform will be all you will want or need. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif |
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The PC game industry may take a dive for a few years, but there will be a renaissance later. Look at what happened to boardgames. Hasbro bought up all of the classics, several important companies went under, and the 'death of boardgames' was announced. Then suddenly the Germans arrived on the scene and turned the market in a new direction.
If the big PC game companies all move over to consoles, someone will take up the PC market. |
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Q1: How many PC games do you know of that are on DVD?
Q2: How many people do you know with a DVD burner on their PC? If your answer shows that Q2 > Q1 then what incentive do publishers have to make games on DVD? What is a company to do when the 'means to copy' has already been inserted into the market? Why would a publisher take the risk of selling to a market where the 'Pirates' have such a huge head start? Remember 'Myst' the all-time greatest seiing PC game ever in the history of PC games? Can you tell me why it sold so well?.. When it came out on the market there were virtually no other 'made for CD' games out there. Sure there were many 'floppy games' that were transfered onto CD. But myst was the first to take full advantage of the CD. Also, CDRW's were virtually non existant. So everyone with a shiny new CD-Rom wanted something to show it off. What did they do? they bought Myst. That kind of success will never hapen again, it can't, simply because the 'novelty' and 'close to pirate-free' enviroment will never happen again. Why? because (as we see whith the DVD situation) the means to pirate have won the battle and now precede the game market. A few more questions.. Q3: How many people do you know with a game console? Q4: How many of these do you know have pirate copies of console games? If Q3 > Q4 then there is (in the eyes of publishers) a better chance of making money (profit) in the game console market. Why then would they turn away from this potential cash cow? What the PC market needs is a 'TRUE' way to curb piracy. Whether it needs to be 'physical' or 'soft' in nature I don't know, but something needs to be done, or the PC game market will be left to the indipendant development companies. (not to say this is a bad thing but without the 'Big-Guns' in the PC game development market, things will just never meet their potential.) Nuf said. Cheers! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif [ November 08, 2003, 11:28: Message edited by: David E. Gervais ] |
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I pretty much agree with DEG. Many people bought Myst as a means to show off their CD-Roms. We are talking about people who never bought another game before or since. So Myst did not sell as a game so much as a CD-Rom accessory. That opportunity will not come again.
I am not certain that piracy (or the lack of it) was a relevant factor, but that's just my opinion. |
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The relative lack of piracy of console games is only going to Last a couple more years (if that). Once DVD burners come down in price... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif You can already find ISO images of most modern console games on the internet. The only real way to prevent piracy (other than requiring a constant internet connection to authorize the running of the program from a central server...) would be to make the games come in a form that is very difficult to duplicate, such as game cartridges, AND to not have a hard drive on the console. The introduction of the hard drive + internet + ethernet more than anything just opens up the console to piracy to no end.
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I dont think pc games will die...
the whole thing about PC games is that you can minimise word or whatever, launch SEIV play a turn or to then when the boss comes over alt tab back to word... well ok maybe not but you get the general idea, its easy to launch a game then exit it and run something else and visa versa. that being said though, I would not be suprised if eventualy PCs Consoles and TVs merge somewhat... hell, I can already watch DVDs on my computer, I can also watch TV with a TV tuner card. |
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