OT: What is the biggest
 

What s the biggest threat we now have facing us and the planet?

I would say over population, lack of resources (Namely Oil), and laws for just about everything from breathing air to sleeping.

There was a time when we had far more freedom to do as we wanted than we currently have now. You could go to the woods and camp, now you need a permit and you have to pack out your waste. (ALL WASTE! Yup, 1 & 2 are included).

As the population increases, resources dwindle and freedom to be free is dramatically reduced. Hell at one point I bet many of you could simply walk out side at any hour and take a whiz, but to do that now you'd more than likely end up on some survalence video.

What used to take 20 minutes to drive now takes an hour with all the traffic, new signals, road revisions, etc. The more people we have, the less mobility we enjoy, hence the less real freedom we have.

Only 20 years ago it was ok hunt, now it is impossible to find an area. 10 year ago we could ride our dirt bikes in the woods, now that area is all houses and closed off for logging. 5 years ago we could ride our quads on the beach, now that is being closed to preserve the sand.

What used to be free camping is now reservation only. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon9.gif

I know that many call this evolution, but I call it what it is, a sincere and continuing threat to the freedom and enjoyment of life.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Humans, of course: Homo Homini Lupus Est!

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Humans are the wolves?

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<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Really? I know a lovely place in southwestern PA where the only thing you need to do is carry out your garbage. No permits, and you can piss on as many trees as you like.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

the biggest problem is probably the gouverment in general, which is getting more lazy and corrupt with each year passing without people noticing it.
its not a local problem, i think the entire world is afflicted, from germany to the united states to japan and even poor countries like africa etc.
With corruption the will of every single to do what is good for himself, which makes things more worse with each day.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Resources is going to be a BIG problem also when the climate changes in the next 50 years that will really be bad. Fortunately the US is really not that crowded compared to the rest of the world so this is probably one of the best places to be.

To answer some of your points though:

When I go camping I don't want to have to see or smell any one else's "business" so I don't know why you are complaining about that. If you are the tenth person in a particular camping spot it would make sense that you would not want to deal with what the previous 9 visitors might have left behind.

The whole purpose of permits is really not that sinister. It's basically so that rangers can know know where the Yahoos are when they need to be saved or are missing.

Also I presume you would not want go into the woods and worry about someone shooting you because they think you're a deer. So hunting, IMO, should be highly regulated especially near crowded areas.

Voting for candidates that are pro-development regardless of the social cost is part of the problem especially here in CA.

Anyway it seems that the "war on terror" AKA let's turn the US into a fascist state is taking away more civil rights than any of the things mentioned.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">I can see that happening in some popular camping places, but in general, I wouldn't want to go to a campsite that had many people visiting it. It seems to defeat the purpose of camping.
<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Lol, I still am free to step out wherever I want to on my property and do my business. But maybe that's because I live in the middle of nowhere....

Someone said the US isn't very overcrowded, and will likely be one of the Last places to become overcrowded. I agree with this, but I have to say that I think Canada will be the VERY Last place to become overcrowded. We have about 10% of the population of the US, and we're bigger http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

What about getting hit by a large asteroid? This could end all life. There is only a tiny amount of funding and effort being expended on looking for these things. And little or no effort going into planning what we would do if we found one on a collision course. We may not even be able to stop something like this, but the sooner we discover an asteroid on a collision course, the more time we have to react. The idea is we find out 30 or 50 years beforehand and then maybe we could deflect it. A those ranges, even a tiny change in its course would make it miss earth.

Slick.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Never take a walk in the bush with some brushwood on your head...... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Slick, You are right about your astroid BUT,

On this moment I think a bigger threat will be:
Terrorist with some nucleair bomb, Poetin going for dictatorship, overpopulation and the rest of all the stuff Atroc. mentioned.

Very smart to put all your money in building some huge Asteroid killer but maybe first clear things out at home.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">yea i saw something on TV about that. I think it was the discovery channel or whatever, but it said that its not a question of IF we will get it, but WHEN. They said that earths gravitational pull will attract an asteroid sooner or later, and that if they do find out that there is somehting coming our way the will just shoot missiles at it to knockit off course.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Fortunately, developing an anti-asteroid system probably isn't going to prevent dealing with other problems at the same time. The course of action there is pretty clear - continue to research, develop, and deploy a solution. It's a risk, but the course of action is clear, and even looks like bozo politicians can be made to understand and agree to do it. "Oh, so I get to be seen by the voters as a movie-star-like person building a ray gun to save the Earth from destruction? Cool - where do I sign?"

Unfortunately, other problems (environmental and political) seem more certain, more urgent, and less easy to solve. Even with intellectual solutions, getting populations and corrupt/foolish/preoccupied governments to act on the solutions can be really hard. Gotta try though. Keep thinking and expressing intelligent opinions to other people, and to goverment and media.

PvK

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

The Asteroids hits about once every 100 Million Years.
That should give a 0.000004 % change (if I get my zeros right) for it to hit during the next electorial period (4 years in most countries). Good to know we still have politicians able to find more urgent use for our taxmoney http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">"Man is a wolf to(wards) Man."

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

So many opinions in such a short time! I'll have to respond to all of them in one post. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif Let's see...

First, I have to agree with the first response by Master Belisarius that humans are the biggest threat to humans. Even if we can avoid deliberately killing each other (unlikely) this newfangled 'science' thing has got everyone greedily trying to figure out how to manipulate their environment to make themselves 'rich and powerful' without thinking of the possible consequences. Industrial poisons and maybe an outright plague could do us some terrible damage even without war.

And then along comes Ragnarok-X and observes that governments seem to be collecting the most dangerous humans together into cooperating Groups... Also true! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif

I don't understand why Atrocities thinks that loss of open wilderness for hunting or moto-cross is any indicator of a 'big threat' to mankind in general. I'd be more concerned at loss of good farmland than open unused land. Animals can adapt to living in farmland, and some of them can even adapt to urban environments -- witness the comeback of the coyote and raven and racoon in the Last few decades. It's kinda hard to grow grain or veggies through asphalt, though. We must stop paving our farmlands for parking lots and suburban strip malls. Other than that, over-population is just a trigger for the first problem mentioned: war.

The asteroid threat is quite real, but we don't know how imminent. That's why we need to spend a little bit (a very little bit in government terms) to at least continue to search for near earth objects. The naysayers are exhibiting a classic misunderstanding of what statistics are about.

Statistics are not laws of nature, they are just observations about averages. The "odds are" there won't be anyone coming the other way the next time you are approaching some rural 4-way stop between some fully grown cornfields where you can't see the road on the right or left. Are you gonna just charge through it at 60 mph without stopping since 'the odds' are in your favor? Or are you smart enough to realize that if there actually is a car coming the other way you'll be just as dead as if you'd driven actoss a busy highway without stopping? Statistics don't tell you about reality. They just give averages. You have to look for yourself to see what is actually the case right now. It doesn't matter what the 'odds' are per year of an asteroid hitting the earth. If there is one on course to hit us next year it WILL hit us next year.

In relative terms it really would cost very, very little to keep of a good search for asteroids that might hit us. A few tens of millions of dollars when NASA gets about $15 billion a year Last I heard?

[ March 29, 2004, 01:40: Message edited by: Baron Munchausen ]

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">"Man is a wolf to(wards) Man." </font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">OOOOOooooh. Thanks. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

I personally am not worried about an astroid. If one hit, we would be dead before most people would know about it. Running out of resources kinda worries me. My main concern is polution. Who cares if we run out of oil in 15 years, when the air will be unbreathable in 50 to 100 years. Why should we care if the rich oil companies go out of business when most of the worlds animals will be extinct because we care more about a making a quick buck than spending a little more to make it safer for our home, the Earth. In our lifetimes we will never have a permanent colony on another planet. Our only hope is if we get our heads out of a@#$% and realize there are more important things than money and who owns what. Unless we evolve beyond greed, we are doomed and so is this whole planet.

[ March 29, 2004, 00:26: Message edited by: Dragonswrd ]

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

I dont think the entire planet will become extinct in like 50 years. I think that before all the oil resources on Earth are gone, that there will be some sort of replacement for it. Hydrogen fuel cells are in development, not quite perfected yet, but we are getting there. Humans will not die out just because we run out of oil or anything. And the earth will most definatly not be destroyed anytime soon. Asteroid or not.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

I didn't mean we would die because of running out of oil. I meant we have almost reach the point of no return on polution and such. We will run out of oil in about 15 to 20 years. Hydrogen fuels cells are non polluting but to produce them is very polluting (sorry on the bad english). We can run out of oil and survive, but if we cut most of the trees down and kill most of the corral reefs (which we are very close to doing), and kill most of the algea (again we are fairly close to doing) we will run out of air. And Last time a checked we needed that.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

lol yea. i didnt want to spark a debate or anything about how messed up we made the panet or anything...but alot of people dont care about what happens. they figure. "hell! Im gonna die in a couple years! why not make it a living hell for everyone who is born after this point in time!"

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Bad example Baron M.
Statistically, the faster you drive the less chance you have to hit someone at a blind intersection. On the other hand, driving faster will give a more severe accident so it will probably be wise to do the snails pace anyway http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

As for the Asteroids; the chance of them hitting is so small its ridiculous to worry about. There are hundreds of potential disasters more capable of exterminating all/most intelligent: Nuclear war, pollution, diseases (both natural and genetically tailored and wilfully released), country music.

The real danger: Lack of energy.
There are simply not enough energy sources available to upgrade everyone on the planet to “western” living standards. At the moment it is other factors that keep the poor down, but sooner or later it will come down to the availability of energy. Then the tough question will be: Keep it for ourselves and expect local conflicts and terrorism to skyrocket, or share it and live with the *****ing of the people who have to park their SUVs. Gonna be a tossup.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Biggest threat I would say is pollution. More specifically pollution and depletion of our ground water. For those places who get water from snow run off then the problem would be air pollution that would pollute the snow runoff.

Beyond that in general I would say the second biggest threat would be Fundamentalism. Get a group of people together and they'll find a reason to hate, kill, or repress another group of people and say that it's god's will. I find myself drifting that way sometimes. When the Arab world says that all Infidels should be killed, I think the only way to eradicate the threat would be to kill all of them. Hope I don't go that way for real!

I also worry about rising sea levels. Not me personally but just a few more feet (1 or 2) and many people will be displaced. Beautiful islands will be inundated and those peoples culture and homes gone till the next ice age.

Maybe a Nuclear Winter will counter Global Warming!

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Fundalmentalism, world poverty which in turn festers hate and turns many to violence, greed and power, look at all the revolutions and coups especially in 3rd world countries, Jealousy which turns into Terrorism, this will increase as more and more become disenchanted with way things are and where all the power and wealth resides. Those who have not, wish for that which others have. Pacifism, look at what happened just before WW2, when everyone let Hitler do what he wanted and believed his crap because they didn't want to take a solid stand against what he was. We again have this type of feeling in the world today. Give them what they want and leave them alone, they'll behave and come around (RRIIIGGGHHTT)

Humanity is on course for self destruction unless we all get along. we've come close a number of times and sooner or later the buttons will be pushed whether by terrorists or others...

just some ideas Mac

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

I guess it all depends on how you want to define threat. If we are talking about capital T threat as in, the end, no more people, then about the only thing that's likely going to do that is a really big asteroid.

On the other hand, while there's a chance of us all getting done in by a big space rock, there's pretty much a certainty that a whole lot of us are going to get done in by all those self inflicted issues we are talking about, pollution, lack of resources, bad hair days, etc. If things keep going the way they are that is. About the worst we could do to ourselves though is probably knock ourselves back a few hundred years on the civilizational scale. It would really suck, but as a species we'd survive it.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Boardom

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

A better world is only achieved by people bettering themselves. Nothing less will do it.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Move to South Dakota. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif The pub across the street actually has a "landmark" rock out back that is the urinal.

I used to drive 7 miles to work in Portland and it took about 30 to 45 minutes. I drive 30 miles to work now, and it takes 25 minutes.

I have a creek in my back yard and I can fish with out a permit, don't know if that is legal or not?

Everyone knows everyone here, so you just ask Elmer if you can help him with his dear problem.

This life style isn't for everyone, I admit I miss the city, but I would have to say we are pretty free to do as we please within respectful manners.

I would have to say our biggest threat is winter! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif Then the next biggest threat would have to be some fanatic that wants to poison the food supply with Mad Cow or something. So I guess people are are biggest threat, good call Atrocities, but I beleive that there is a great deal of land left, maybe not resources, but there are alternatives.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Ummm, that Last one...Someone is going to sing the ultimate sad country song and everyone suicides? http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

I don't think we'll run out of oil in the next couple of decades. I thought there's oil in the ground but the deposits that haven't been tapped yet are more difficult to get at. So the price of oil will keep rising as the cost of extracting the oil gets higher and higher. But we won't suddenly run out of oil; that will take much longer.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Actually, current estimates put us at 15 to 20 years left of oil. So yes it will be soon.

[ March 30, 2004, 13:57: Message edited by: Dragonswrd ]

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">They said that during the "energy crisis" during the '70's too. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Slick.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">No... anything but that... please...

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">OK, now that statement scares me.


<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">I agree Mac, fascism is on the rise again, and I think it is a serious threat to humanity. Bush seems determined to push the entire world into irrational fear, hysterical hatred and uncontrollable conflict, and then to dominate the survivors and strip away any kind of freedom from them. IMHO he is a major threat to the future of civilisation.

Re: oil. We will run out eventually, no-one can deny that there is only a finite supply of it (unless you want to wait a few million years for some more to be naturally formed). When it will run out I don't know, but most estimates I've seen seem range from around 5 to 100 years, depending on the agenda being pushed.
however much is out there, it all depends on how quickly we burn it up, and in particularly, how quickly the 3rd World catches up with the 1st in terms of consumption. If everyone in Africa, India and China went out tomorrow and bought a Ford each (and magically had sufficient roads/ fuel stations/ money to run them) we'd all be living in 3rd World conditions by the end of the decade. We will proabably have sufficient alternative energy sources by the time oil runs out, so that doesn't really worry me, but what are we going to do about pLastics and other oil derivatives? Imagine having to build everything out of wood, metal and other materials again. Many (most?) manufactured goods we take for granted would be impossible to build out of anything else without making major sacrifices in terms of weight and/or cost and/or strength. Look around the room you are sitting in, and try to imagine the contents without pLastic. Just think about how much pLastic you throw away every day...
Maybe pLastics could be manufactured without oil somehow, but that is bound to cost a lot of money and energy.

Re: environment. Global warming/ climate change are going to cause a lot of devastation, suffering and extinctions, but humanity and the the environment will adapt and survive. That's not to say we shouldn't work against it, it's still a very very bad thing, just not *quite* as bad as some other problems we face. Pollution is a problem and a potential planet-killer, but I believe we have what it takes to beat it and we have been on the right track for quite a few years now. Big companies and their pocket politicians are determined to change/bend/break the rules in order to continue polluting, but the world's public is against pollution, and I think eventually the will of the ppl will win.

Re: Asteroids. I'm not worried about asteroid threats- we probably (statistically speaking :-p )have a long while until we are forced to deal with that one, but we ought to be watching the skies more carefully, just to be sure, and we also ought to colonise the moon and mars, just in case.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Regarding Oil: I think the actual fear is running out of CHEAP oil. I think Atrocities had a link to a scary site about that. When it starts costing alot of money to pump out, process and protect the oil, people are gonna freak. Society will crash, and more wars will break out as countries try to protect or posess more oil to offset the costs.
I'm not worried, I'm counting on it. I hate this oil based society and being forced to change is a good motivator.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

When we run out of 'oil' or the price at least runs up to stratospheric levels, the tar sands in Canada will become economically viable to extract. It's not likely to take long for US industries to make some sort of deal and start 'refining' (messy as it might be) when the price is finally high enough to support the business. The reserves in Canada's 'tar sands' (or 'oil sands') are estimated to be larger than Saudi Arabia's crude oil reserves.

http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/com/Sands/default.htm

http://ffden-2.phys.uaf.edu/102sprin...ects/M.Sexton/

And even if this gets used up, there have been all sorts of clever processes tried over the years to make 'syntheitc' fuel oil, including some remarkably successful processes developed in Germany during the WW II shortages. Like the tar sands, price compared to the easily available form is all that keeps these processes from being used. So it seems much more likely that we'll have to give up oil burning due to pollution before we actually run out.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Maybe we should buy stocks in Alberta oil sand companies like Syncrude or Suncor. We'll be rich when the oil prices go up. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Buy stocks in farmland; there the only thing that'll hold.

Sorry. Well, not really. I'm laughing while i'm writing. PUNS!

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

No more new "Good and Original" PC games.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

I also read a few years ago about how the Cubans were working on turning sugar cane into a substitute for oil-based fuels. ANyone know about that?

They were also using it to make super glue and about a zillion other things they couldn't import due to sanctions, IIRC.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Thought this might be interesting to a few:

http://www.cnn.com/2004/TECH/space/0...eut/index.html

Slick.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Atrocities hit the nail on the head right off: Overpopulation!

If we had only 1 billion on the planet instead of 7 billion, 95% of the problems mentioned would disappear. There's a trade off of course. Fewer geniuses, fewer inovations and discoveries; you can't have it all!

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">It's not a threat it's a symptom. Of both overpopulation and erosion of freedom.

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Yeah, but you go through more intersections that way. It balances out. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">I won't listen!! La la la la la... I'm not listening! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Unfortunately I have no faith in the human race to do the right thing. We will dig our own grave then whine when we struggle to clamber out again. But when we rise again, we will have fewer resources to work with so we will be forced to do it better next time. This may be the only way the human race can continue evolving.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif well said Grandpa Kim. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

at least there will be beer.

ummm.... yea

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

And more beer to go around. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Yep, country music will do it for sure.

PLastics can be made from other resources than oil.
Corn and other organics has been used successfully, but to be able to nake the variation of pLastics that we get from petroleum will take lots of research,as the oild based pLastics has been around and developed longer.

[ April 09, 2004, 14:41: Message edited by: Ruatha ]

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif
Don't forget Super Volcanoes

Or Mega Tsunamis

Of course I could be hit by a bus tomorrow crossing the street.

Lets see no one have mentioned the Earth's sun dieing out or going nova yet.

Deadly alien viruses brought to earth by meteorites. (Andromeda Strain)

And don't forget the monster black hole in the middle of the Galaxy that will eventually swallow all of the milky way.

I guess that means that we are all going to die.

Re: OT: What is the biggest
 

Ok, I just couldn't resist. I normally resist posting anything political (and I didn't actually see the news conference) but this snippet on it just tickles me (in a scary way):

"Toward the end of the news conference, Bush was asked what lessons he had taken away from events since the Sept. 11 attacks. He stopped, shook his head, looked quizzical and then came up empty, although it was the kind of question he must have been told to prepare for. "I'm sure something will pop into my head here in the midst of this press conference, all the pressure of trying to come up with an answer," he said. "But it hasn't yet.""

source: WashPost, Today (April 14, 2004) fm:http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2004Apr14.html