Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

Heh thanks.
I always wondered: If there is a 1% chance of an event happening, and you looked at 100 possible event-worlds, what are the chances of it happening once? If it is 1/100 + 1/100 ..., wouldnt that make it 100/100? Does that mean there is a 100% chance of it happening? That just sounds absurd to me. Obviously, "chances are" that it will happen, but what the heck does that mean? (Is my question clear or must I be more precise?)

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

Happening once or atleast once? That is a world of difference... Interesting question, anyway.

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">eheh, probabilities... Your additive method only works with very small chances/small number of occurences, but in this case it's faulty.
A 1% chance event has an *average* chance of NOT occurring (at all) of (1-0.01)^100, that's 33.6%, so chance of occuring *at least once* is 66.4 %
However the average *number* of occurence is 1 (ie it will sometimes occur 0 time, other 1 time, or more, but average still is 1%*100 = 1)

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

I dont know.
I'll put it this way.
If you flip a coin, there is a 1/2 chance it will come up heads. If you flip it twice, there is a 2/2 chance you will get heads in one out of those two times -- right? So I think that means "once"?
But it would be absurd to say there is a 100% chance of you getting heads, so I must be confused somewhere, or maybe it is a language thing.

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">No. There is a 1/2 chance you will get heads the first time, and a 1/2 chance you will get heads the second time. Past results have no effect on the future results for a coin.

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

OK, but I thought that statistics were also used over time to consolidate possible worlds?

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

ok, but then, in this case, there are 4 equi-probable possible worlds:

1. first toss heads, second toss heads
2. first toss heads, second toss tails
3. first toss tails, second toss heads
4. first toss tails, second toss tails.

Thus, each of the 4 possible outcomes has a 25% probability; and the chance that heads will be tossed at least once is 75%, as that would be 3 of the 4 possible worlds.

http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

[ March 11, 2004, 15:16: Message edited by: archaeolept ]

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">You're confusing "probability" and "average", and forget to .. forget past http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/tongue.gif http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
So for example :
If I plan to flip a coin 2 times, what I know is that heads has a 50% chance of coming out, so in average will appear 1 time out of the 2.
Now this is different from the probability to see *at least once* heads, which is the inverse of the chance to never see it (50 % of 50% = 25%), so 75%
But suppose heads comes up the 1st time. Now for the second time our previous expectations are obsolete, and again heads has a 50% of showing up.
Even if heads comes up 99 times ina row it has STILL a 50% chance of coming up next time - even if AT START the chance of that particular series was very tiny (0.5^99 = nada approx http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/tongue.gif ).
Clearer ?

[ March 11, 2004, 15:29: Message edited by: PDF ]

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">No. The coin no memory.

You are committing the same error that makes people bet on lottery combinations that have not won yet.

The universe does not care that the coin came down heads or the lottery 1-2-3-4-5-6-7 Last time.

Hehehe. This is nearly the right time to introduce tinkthank to the Monty Hall problem http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

OK thanks, think I got it now. I knew that events dont remember past events, and have heard of the casion fallacy, but I didnt know what it meant in statistics terms. Thanks guys. Actually, Arceolept's explanation was the most clear to me.

Are some randoms more random than others?
 

I know that some units get random magic picks ranging across the whole board, while others only get random elemental or random sorc picks. My question however is this:
For those units which get a random pick from all 8 paths, is it the case that one (or more) paths come up more often than others (weighted randomness)? I am thinking here for example of Machaka Black Sorc, where I get a random death more often than a random anything else, and almost never a random astral, or S&A Celestial Master, where of the 2 I get a random water very frequently -- is this just my odd luck or are the random picks weighted in some cases?

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

Equal distribution as far as my observations indicate.


The odds of NOT getting an extra water on a S&A Celestial Master would be ~76.6%. In other words, you can expect almost 1 out of 4 Celestial Master's to get at least 3 water, which certainly leads to the feeling that a lot of Celestial Masters get this bonus.

However, it should be noted that the number of mages of the same type recruited in a single game are often too low to use for any sort of statistics. I player a S&A game where 3 out of 5 Celestial Masters recruited in the first ten turns 1 blood, and by the end, 7/17 recruited had 1 blood - which are too few to use for a good statistical analysis, really, and certainly fall within the range of an "equal distribution" hypothesis. (It was fun though)

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Thanks much sir. Suspected as much.
I know too little about statistics to remember standard deviance and what not, but may I ask an unqualified question?

- If 1 out of 4 CMs gets at least 3 water, then isnt the chance also that 1 out of 4 CMs gets 2 Fire, Astral or Air? (Chance of getting +1 water = chance of getting +1 to anything else they already have, right?)

Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Depends on how you phrase the question http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

If you ask, what are the odds of a Celestial Master to get at least 2 Fire, it is indeed ~23.4% under the equal distribution hypothesis. [And likewise if you ask specifically about 2 Air or 2 Astral]

If you ask, what are the odds of a Celestial Master getting at least 2 Fire or at least 2 Air or at least 2 Astral, the odds are much, much, higher. Since the chance of getting NO extra fire, air, or astral would be 5/8*5/8 ~ 39.1%, you can expect 60.9% of Celestial Masters to have at least 2 picks in one of the minor default paths.