odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

how are the odds for random events distributed ?
lets say you take luck 0 .
some events have conditions/requirements to fire like the temple kill events .

so does dominions simply check if the requirements are fulfilled and move all events where they are into 2 pools one for bad and one for good events ?
then when a random event has to be chosen first at luck 0 with 50% probability either a good or bad event is chosen .
then dominions just choses one random event out of the good / bad random event pools .

do there all events have the same chance of being chosen of 1/number possible events in pool ?
or do the chances for a temple kill event increase the more temples you have ?

furthermore are there additional event triggers like you may get no +1000 gold event in the first 10 game turns ?

furthermore , inspired by an old statement of norfleet :
no more random events than 3 / turn can happen .
doom horrors create bad events though .
norfleet said he once got 8 bad random events from doom horrors in one single province .

are there special rules for doom horror events or are they the same as for every event from the bad events pool ?

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">There is a complete list of all possible events somewhere out there, together with thier requirements. You may try searching for it in the forum or on the net if you are interested in some particular events.


As for the probabilities, the chance of events is evaluated on province by province basis. That means that your scale only directly corelates with probability of events if you have the same "luck" scale in all your provinces and they have positive dominion.

The other side of this coin is that if let's say - you have Misfortune 3, and strong dominion with temples on your border, than your neigbors will suffer necause of *your* bad luck. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif I especially like wathing water provinces near my shores controled by my neigbors (while I have Misfortune 3 and pushing it into the ocean with my land temples), being plagued by nasty events turn after turn, like rampaging Sea Kings with dozen of mean sea Trolls tearing everything apart. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

How sure are you?

I've been under the impression (based on forum postings) that the frequency and quality of random events was totally dependent on the order/luck scales in your home province only.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">No, no, no, no, no. Frequency and quality of random events is determined by local luck scale.

This is one reason why Strange Opening for example is not such a very good magic site to find despite the 2 Astral gems per turn, becauses it causes +3 Misfortune in province, so you will have Misfortune to some degree unless your dominion is Luck +3 in which case they cancel out. Totem Poles on the other hand does just the opposite, it increases Luck in the province.

Edi

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">I am pretty sure Sheap. IIRC devs have posted such info, in some old thread where they were discussing luck effects. It also corelates with my pwn observations.

[ July 30, 2004, 08:29: Message edited by: Stormbinder ]

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

Hmm.

Well, OK then. I certainly like this much better as it makes Misfortune hostile dominion like any other (although somewhat less severe since even with misfortune, maybe still nothing will happen).

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

ok thnx stormbinder that was a clear answer http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

the event list is puplished on sunrays site http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
unfortunately still down .

one Last question :
only 3 events may happen per turn right ?
how is the probability for a random event with common event settings ?
i mean can you be sure that once you have conquered e.g. 30 provinces then with common event settings with 99,999% probability you get now 3 events each turn as long as you keep them ?

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

What I should have said is that events are determined by local luck scale as long as you have luck scales to begin with (i.e. positive luck is considered only if it's from your own dominion and/or from sites that increase such scales locally).

The three event limitation is per province. I've had as many as a dozen events happening all at once, but no more than three per province.

Edi

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">If yo have a dozen events happening at once, then you must have either a large number of doom horrors, or a large number of ladies of fortune and jade emperors.

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Luck/Order scales after 2.06 Patch

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

Thanks for posting that link Graeme. It was fun to revisit a time when the majority of the discussions around here were both constructive and dominions-related.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">If yo have a dozen events happening at once, then you must have either a large number of doom horrors, or a large number of ladies of fortune and jade emperors.

Quote:

Originally posted by Kristoffer O: Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects.

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Luck/Order scales after 2.06 Patch </font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">It is possible. It collarates with my example of pushing bad luck into enemy dominion, since it will be *your* bad luck who will doom your neigbor, even if he have luck 3, assuming you push your dominion over the border.

However it is not totally clear what "scales of the province" means. Let's say you have dominion scale luck -3, that would give you very bad events, but in that particular province you have positive dominion and luck 0. The dev's statement seem to suggest that the worst events assosiated with very bad luck will pass over province, since it has luck 0 scale despite having luck -3 in your capital. If this correct, than the events will be determine on province by province base by the local luck, but with home capital having overal influence over all provinces with your positive dominion.


That brings an interesting thought. There is a fairy useless spell, that along with its main effect, set Dominion luck to -3. It's pretty cheap, but nobody ever cast it in MP, since its effects are too weak. However, if what Kristoffer said is correct (he implyed that he was not sure), than it can be a great spell that nobody uses because they don't undestand the mechanic of luck. If the capital's indeed affects the ratio of random events for the whole dominion, that you can screw some Empire royally for many turns, if somebody have for example luck 3 and you change it to luck -3. Instead of a typical 3 or more good events your enemy will suffer a lot of bad events for several turns to come, until his dominion will restore his luck. Than you can "rinse, repeat".

It's like you are puting a Curse on entire enemy nation. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon8.gif

I like it. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif It would be good if somebody would confirm it. It would be pretty simple to test it, if you choose luck 3 nation to experiment with.

[ July 30, 2004, 19:13: Message edited by: Stormbinder ]

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

As far as I understand you have a chance of (hypotheticaly speaking) 5% of an event happening in each one of your provinces.
Those 5% are then modified by the scales in action in the province (more for turmoil etc.).
After it has been decided if you recieve an event or not and in case you are, the luck scales in that province are then consulted to see wether you get a good or bad event.
So to have a high chance of a good event happening in a certain province, the scales in that province have to be on the side of luck (preferably +3).
Enemy dominions can mess your luck up in certain provinces, so to get the full effect of the +3 luck you are going to have to have your dominion in your provinces.
Hope that makes sense and wasn't just stating the obvious.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">That's not what KristofferO said Agrajag, in the link that Graeme have posted.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">That's not what KristofferO said Agrajag, in the link that Graeme have posted. </font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">So according to him, the chance of an event occouring are only modifed by the capitol, the chance of it being a good or bad even is influenced by the local luck scale of the province.
So if someone has a high order dominion, bad luck won't be too bad, but if he has turmoil+3 and luck+3 he is totaly screwed in any province of his that hasnt dominioned up to luck+3 (especially if that province has been dominioned/spelled to misfortune+3).

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

I don't read the posting in Graeme's link the same as everyone else I guess. This is the original posting that convinced me only home province matters at all.

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">(It's on page 5)

This seems very clear and straightforward to me. Did he make a mistake in this statement? The only thing province scales would seem to do is restrict whether nor not the extreme events (i.e. barbarian hordes, caspar of the cave) are allowed there or not. Since most events both good and bad are allowed with any scales, this wouldn't have a huge effect.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

new question :
a norna e.g. prevents bad events with 15% probability .
do they simply stack so 7 nornas are enough to prevent every bad event or 15% cancel chance for each norna , but no stackup ?
then for 7 nornals the chance to prevent a bad event should be ~68% .
while ulms fortune tellers have only 5% .
so even 15 fortune tellers in capitol would only prevent ~54% of bad events .

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">No, actually it is other way around. KristofferO said that random event being good or bad is determined by the luck scale in the capital, *than* restricted by the local scales.

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Not really. He is not screwed since standart luck zero give you 50/50 chance of good or bad events. And turmoil just affects the chance of the event happening, not the ratio between god or bad. Also, regardless of your order/turmoil scale, the max number of random events per turn is still limited to 3, baring special cases like Doom Horrors, etc. And that limit will be reached relatively quickly as you empire grow.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">(It's on page 5)

This seems very clear and straightforward to me. Did he make a mistake in this statement? The only thing province scales would seem to do is restrict whether nor not the extreme events (i.e. barbarian hordes, caspar of the cave) are allowed there or not. Since most events both good and bad are allowed with any scales, this wouldn't have a huge effect. </font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">Generaly I agree, although local scales do effect events to significant degree, because a lot of events are scales related (not only luck scales but all scales). But the main point about home capital's luck seem to be pretty straight forward, unless KrissO is mistaken.

That's why I suggested that casting bad luck spell on somebody's capital could screw his entire empire for several turns, if this information is correct.

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

"Home province Luck determines number of events and good/bad effect IIRC. Scales of the province restricts event effects."
So if I have Luck+3 in my home province I will have the extra event % that luck brings and will have a higher chance of good events happening.
BUT if a certain province has a luck of -3 then the good event generated for it by the home province might negate that event leaving you with no event at all.
And Im guessing its the same thing for Turmoil/Order.
Its still hard to understand exactly what he meant...
We need a new post clearing things up... :/

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

<font size="2" face="sans-serif, arial, verdana">No, that's not how I think it works. I don't have the source code of Dom2, but I could try to make a good quess from programer's perspective based upon available information and previous developers Posts. Obviously all events in the dom2's Events datebase have the flag of being "good" or "bad". The home province's (meaning capital) Luck determines what type of event it will be, as Kris said in his post. The local scales(*all* scales) restrict what type of possible events that can happen in this particular province, based upon the number of scales (and also other parameters, such as province type). But it does not influence the ratio between the chance of good or bad events happening in this particualr province, which is constant for all provinces with your positive dominion and is determined by your capital's Luck scale.


Again, I am not Illwinter's programer and I don't have the source code in front of me, but it seem to be quite likely scenario to me, both from Kris's statement, from general logic perspective and based upon previous developers explanations how other similar semi-random algorithms work in Dominion2, such as random magic sites placement/searching algorithm.

Anyway, it would be great is somebody would run the test with Luck 3 nation and Baneful Star spell, that I sugested earlier. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/rolleyes.gif That would clear this matter once and for all.


Regards,
Stormbinder

[ July 30, 2004, 20:42: Message edited by: Stormbinder ]

Re: odds of random events : constant or dependent on amount ? (temple kill event etc. )
 

All right, since nobody volonteered, I've decided to test it myself. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif


Here is what I did:

In SP I;ve created nation with Turmoil 3, Luck 3. than I've played it until it expanded to about 30 provinces, and builded temples until I had dominion 10 in most of the provinces, adn luck 3 everywhere. As expected I was receiving about 3 random events per turn, most of them were good. Than I've convereted all my gems to astral and started chaincasting Banefull Star spell on my capital, until The luck there changed from 3 to -3. Than I kept it at -2/-3 for 10 turns, to make sure that there is no mistake, while gathering statistical information.


The results were not what should be expected, based upon KrisO comments. Despite having permament bad luck in my capital, due to chaincasting Balefull start, there was no significant changes in the global patters of the events in my empire. Other than standart "few units are cursed" events in capital due to Balefull Stars, there large majority of random events (about 80%) were still good, despite having permament bad luck in the capital. The capital itself was devasted once due to the plaque event, which is not surprising given that it had -2/-3 luck in it.

The results of this expereiment are very clear: the luck in the capital have no infulence over the random events good/bad ratio or event frequency.

All random events aredetemined on purely province by province basis based upon local scales, just as I said originaly in my very first post of this topic in this thread.

I guess this is the rare case where devs are mistaken, which of course should no be hold against them, given the very high compexity of the game and the fact that Kristoffer actualy said "If I remeber correctly" in his comments.

I hope the results of this test will be useful to some people.

Regards,
Stormbinder