New chinese MBT
 

From Jane's:
http://www.janes.com/defence/news/jd...0617_1_n.shtml

Chinese are testing new MBT, Type-99, armed with 140 mm cannon. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif ( I wonderit has something in common with Rheinmetall NATO 140 mm gun?)

Anyway: can China, using european / israeli tchnology create MBT that would easily defat its western counterparts?

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Depends how you look at it (that is, either from an arrogant Westerner's view, or from an arrogant Chinese's http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif)...

Look at the Type-98G: it already has a front turret modular addon armor pack said to be similar to that of the Leopard 2A5 plus advanced ERA, their new 125mm 50cal gun is NOT an improved Russian design but a derivate from their own 120mm gun, firing DU sabot round that could very well be derivates from Israeli technology, the turbodiesel 1200hp GMP derivates from German WD396.
It is also said that Chinese manufacture AT-11 gun-fired missiles.

Apart from all that, the Type-98 is the first an yet only tank in the world to field a laser soft-kill active defence device.

Don't believe what is too often said, China moves forward like everyone else, maybe even faster right now, but quietly...http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image.../firedevil.gif

Look this unofficial site for good info about the Type-98.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

With information like this, I wonder what the prospects are for the Army's Future Combat System? I know that we need lighter armored forces/medium weight forces, but is the FCS it? I think they might be going too light.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

If you are hit you are probably screwed anyway. As long as you have enough firepower, then speed is a good protection as anything.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Pergite, open the game, launch a battle in "tank heavy" mode with enough points to have at least one tank squadron on each side. Place both on ridges at gun range. How many shots per kill? Last time I tried this (M1 IP vs. T-80b), there were about 4 shots for one hit and 5 hits for one kill.
Now try that on medium armor, even the best of IFV (NOT Strf-90C, that's cheating http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif ).

I can understand why some say that thick armor and big guns will die hard. Light mobile forces with long-reaching smart weapons are fine so long as you keep the edge and a good standoff. As soon as you'll lose the initiative you're done.

Anyway I don't understand why the US military fear the Chinese that much? Do they fear an invasion? Would the Chinese manage what even the Japanese didn't try, when they have a whole continent as playground as long as they don't start playing silly buggers?

Oh, anyway, I guess some people can't feel good without an enemy, and that on both sides of the Pacific ocean... mmh, quite anywhere, indeed http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Seeing as America didn't tolerate to have to share the world with the USSR, America will still not tolerate to have to share the world with China. Developing econimically and militarily in ways no one anticipated, China is truly a competitor for the title of The World's Largest Superpower.
Not only are they developing a blue-water fleet that in not many decades will rival that of the US, but they are also drooling over "re-uniting" Taiwan with its motherland, and this latter is of great concern to USA and Japan. America has already taken the side of Taiwan, and should a Chinese strike be launched, she has little to do but join in the melee. Officially, of course, there is much else to do, but if an invasion is launched, then by God there aren't many alternatives left. I doubt any US president is willing to tolerate to lose face in such a battle.
Also, the Chinese will perhaps not be as careful with their nuclear weapons as the Soviets and westerns were. They share many of the basic understandings of moral and ideology, while China's (the men in charge, of course) perception of the world is a completely different one.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Pacific coexistence, anyone? No interest? Last bid! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image.../firedevil.gif

I guess it is also part of the political game for the Chinese leaders to show off their new shiny power (at least the parts where it IS shiny http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif) to stand up against the almighty USA. Quite alike Kim Jong-Il's stand in North Korea, only more successful.

The point is that China is progressing impressively fast indeed, but not enough to stand against the US forces in the Pacific area, let alone invading Taiwan. One practical hing is that they don't have the amphibious capacity for that.

Besides, if Taiwan gets reunited to mainland China in the next years, it will be progressive an bloodless, like Hong-Kong with more rant http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/happy.gif
I don't want to be overly optimistic, but Chinese power apparatus is so intricately cross-controlled that no single power-crazed general is bound to launch a surprise strike anywhere just to get at the head of a war-torn country!

All progressist and thriving it may appears now, the country is deeply divided. The average Chinese is a poor farmer or worker without education, in some forsaken and trackless outback county, ruled by a distant, tax-thirsty and Kafkaïan administration and corrupt, incompetent and tax-thirsty local delegates.
The wealth generated by the new economy is more concentrated than ever, and the leaders of the next generation tend to be sharks the like of which has never been dreamed of by the combat guppies of Wall Street.

Any bump in the fast-lane road to progress could very well topple the country into an endless and bloody continental civil wars. Enough factions want more air as it is. BTW, the next Olympics could be a pretty tribune for the unheard masses of the Empire... Let's wait and see.

Shortly put, that is why I don't think China will risk a military intervention against Taiwan and a war against the US in the real world.

This is purely off-topic, but hey, I thought that was worth explaining. For what my sources are worth.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

I could try that IRL in a war and that would be devestating. You cant afford waging war like that anymore and the modern battlefield would probably not even allow it. You cant just dig your tanks in on a hill and wait for the enemy to come rolling and start up a big tank duel a´la potential Fulda Gap. There wont be one big front and if you stay too long in one place, you will soon have something with a rather high Armour penetrationg value dropped on your roof, while the enemy effecivly have taken another route around your position.

I would never compromise firepower, I would rather increase it (more atgm´s). But a lighter fast moving tank could be effecitve anywhere on the battlefield and be depolyed where ever it would be needed without a enormous logistics train.
But that is just my philosophy, and I have never been that much fond of tanks anyway http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Oh Boy!!! We are really hitting all my favorite topics this week. My Bachelors Degree is in Chinese and Japanese history. Where do I begin?

I don't think the US Military fears China. It makes a good Hollywood story line to portray warmongering Generals playing up fear to get more budget money. I am the type of nerd who watches Congressional Briefings, and China has rarely come up in the last ten years. Generally the concern is:
1. Development of Long-Range, hypersonic, huge anti-ship missiles (practical only for sinking US Super Carriers or Oil SuperTankers)
2. Weapons proliferation, which China has cut back on since 9/11

The Chinese and the Russians are very different people, whether they are communist or not. Calling China communist today is a joke, since they are selling the last of there state-run industries. I think the Chinese Leadership is not so fatalistic as to be cavalier with nuclear weapons. They do have the attitude that the Chinese people are "peasants" who serve them, and I don't think they want to loose that power.

China does not have the power to invade Tiawan. They do not have enough amphibious capability. They can launch a large Air and Sea battle (astride the world's most busy shipping lane) and China can beat Tiawan do to sheer mass. But, to what end? They have the WTO, world acceptance and they need oil.

The Chinese power structure is somewhat unique. So far, the emerging middle and wealthy classes have not demanded a seat at the leadership table, as has happened with every other Western nation when a middle class arises. Chinese culture, emphasizing the family over the individual, and harmony over agitation, may allow an open market economy exist in a totalitarian political system. (I wrote a paper on this very subject.) Admission into the WTO, (undeserved in my opinion, but we needed them not to Veto and Enduring Freedom UN resolutions) has solidified the ruling faction's grip on power. This is the faction that wants engagement and commerece with the West.

The final thing worth noting is what I call the "Walmart effect." After 5 years the US / Chinese economies are now so thoroughly linked that trade sanctions and threats are not practical. China is growing by manufacturing dinky little things that Americans scoop up for cheap. So in the end, it is still American dollars and most Americans understand this. (ok no they don't, but those are the dumba**es that don't vote anyways) There is no need to fear the big Red Chinese Machine.

I think you will see China make a slow, very slow transition to democracy, an "Asian Democracy" much like Japan, different in form and style, just as the US and Europe practice Democracy in different ways.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Wow, I would really like to read your thesis papers on this Kevin! I would never have hoped for such a specialist around!

Now you agree that China has no interest in attacking any neighbouring country without threat. They seem to have mastered quite well the tricks of 'economical warfare' and to be well beyond force shows.

Now everyone here says that agreeing that China and USSR are different, and gabbling about mad generals and so on... Should I recall that NO mad Russian general has made any silly attempt as described yet?

So, in the same way that many here play cold-war breakout scenarios without it ever having a fair chance to happen (and stay playable in this game, IIMSS), why not, in full gear paranoid gamer's imagination, consider a potential Taiwan conflict as a good scenario mining patch http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif

Now whatever you say, Kevin, I remain quite frightened that there be a good level of political instability in China right now, external influence or not. Some people who also know China from first hand have raised this question, but I think the 'opportunity window' for any really chaotic political turnaround for China only will close quite soon.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Lighter vehicle doesn't mean lighter logistics. If you equip your Light Combat Vehicle (LCV) with a gas turbine, you will have something lighter but as fuel-thirsty as an Abrams. Suppose now you find a way to field effective hydrogen cells or ionic batteries, for instance by quick-changing them and reloading in your rear area. Do you imagine the logistics behind this?

And the price counts as well, also that is easily forgotten in a tactical wargame. One advanced ATGM is about ten times as expensive as an equivalent tank round. Granted, it is also guided. Now there should be an average between one light-armored Stryker brigade and the 2000 T-55 you'll get for the same price http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...es/biggrin.gif... I guess everyone is precisely looking for that;)

You can still consider armour the Israeli way... I don't know how mobile could Merkava IV get if needed.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

China is no way near superpower status and won't achieve it in the foreseeable future, if ever. It simply hasn't got the economic basis for it.

Statistics can look impressive but don't mean anything out of context. China's economic growth is build on quicksand. Remember the fear of a japanese (economic) takeover of the US in the 80's? The threat of the booming asian tigers in the 90's? Those didn't quite live up to the expectation and neither will China now. For one thing (among many) it's economic progress is kept alive by a government vouching for loans by business (often run by relatives, cronies, etc). However a default percentage of up to 40% is already being expected on those loans. Ouch!
When the chinese economic bubble comes crashing down it'll make the earlier asian ones (japan and the tigers) look like nothing. Especially since china has managed (very cleverly!) to integrate parts of the US economy and US companies into it's bubble.

Narwan

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Remember the Thailand crash in 1997 and how some crazed NY traders ran down the Thai currency in some weeks, taking apart the whole Asian economy, like some later did to Argentina? Now THAT ended the Asian boom, for whoever would percieve that as a threat.

Oh, and quite every stock-based economy on the world right now is built on hot air. I won't extend on the dangers of stock-options, and how some more Enron-like affairs could turn it all to ashes precisely because of the US-Asian dependence.
Look how Boeing is trying to sue Airbus on EU-government loans? Where is the difference with China? The Chinese government is horribly corrupt, but the rising generation is bound to make it their own way at whichever cost.

The Asian bubble can plop anytime now, but itis too late for making profit whit it, since that would be at everyone's expense. So I guess everyone will go on filling it up with sheer faith, just like the dollar bubble or any other!

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Wow, this really puts a cramp in my current US vs. China campaign in Taiwan!

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Oh, well this may be a better topic for a campaign anyway!

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Also the Chinese take the long view to a strategy as opposed to the Western short view. I have to say the Chinese to look at getting Taiwan. Back. But not in the next 25 years. They will work on the Taiwanese people first and go for peaceful reunification as opposed to fighting.

Besides the Chinese have 2 billion people and they have an open land to the north and another nation with 1 billion people who share a border (a small and mountainous) with. Some will need land to expand into and Taiwan is too small and really not worth fighting for at the cost it would take to win.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

@Shadowcougar
India and China have a population of respectively 1,1 and 1,3 billion (2004, I think). http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/smile.gif

@Kevin
What I perhaps did not emphasize, or remember to point out, was that wars aren't fought unless there is a proper catalyst. Before the first world war, there had to be an assassination (remember how quiet and peaceful international politics looked the months ahead). Before the second world war, Hitler had to rise to power.
What I am saying is that at the current level, I (who have no master in anything) don't anticipate the relationship between China and America, and China and Taiwan, to worsen enough for a war to escalate. Something sudden would have to happen, I believe.

Remember the rockets that were launched off Taiwan, and what this resulted in. Misunderstandings can easily result in a war, the way a rocket with a scientific mission launched from Norway nearly resulted in a nuclear response from the USSR.
My bottom line is that because a cadet spilled some Coke on the control panel he was manning, we might wake up one morning to a war between nations. Be it Indonesia and Malaysia or America and Soviet, war ain't good.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

AB, don't worry about your campaign. China vs. US and Taiwan will always be interesting to explore

I agree with Narwan about China's superpower forecast. The Chinese economy has been built by American Consumer's need to buy crappy little trinkets like the piggie figurines that my girlfriend has placed all over my house. Dear lord woman! I don't care if you got it on sale, you didn't need it in the first...... woops wrong forum.

Oh Plasma.... Plasma, Plasma Plasma, let me put my Finance cap on and figure out where to begin. The Chinese currency (the Yuan) is pegged to the dollar. This means that there is a fixed exchange rate instead of a floating rate like the $ to the Euro. This was true of the Asian Tigers before the crash in 1997.

This crash was not the result of "some crazed NY traders." Currency fluctuation is a natural part of the economic cycle. Cash cannot continue to flow in one direction forever. The more the $ goes out of the US, the more its value goes down. If no one buys the things the US has, then US workers loose their jobs, then they cannot buy as many Asian products.

As the value of the $ falls, deflation becomes a problem. Deflation happens when there are too many products and not enough $ to buy them, so prices need to be lowered. Deflation is much worse than Inflation because it is harder to get out of. Deflation is a downward spiral where a company is building too many products and charging too much money for them. So they lower prices and lay-off workers they can't afford to pay. But then, with more workers laid-off, there are even less people to buy products.

Now the Asian Tigers are in trouble. Since their currency is pegged to the $, its drops in value too. A country pegs its currency to the $ so that their currency remains weaker. Having a weaker currency makes your goods more competitive in foreign markets, and imports less competitve at home. For example: China makes a widget for 4 Yuan. They have the Yuan pegged 4 to 1 to the $. You get 4 Yuan for every $. China ships the widget to the US and sells it for $4. They then take those $ back to China and exhange and get 16 Yuan.

The value of the Asian Tigers are falling, pegged to a $ that is sinking. They have no choice, they must float their currency, which allows it to be traded on the open Market. The results are predictable, painful, but neccessary. The Asian Tiger's value shoots up, way up. Their economy and currency offers the best return at the moment. But.... what comes up, must come down. The Asian Tiger's currency is rising, the $ is falling. All of the sudden: Asia's exports become more expensive in America, and America's exports become cheaper. To prevent this, the Asian Tigers started printing money, lot's of it in an attempt to flood the market and lower the value. This happens, but guess what? Inflation skyrockets.

Inflation is the great big brake to economic development (although not as bad as deflation) You have more and more money that is worth less and less. In addition, sales are plummeting so you're taking in less money. And that money is loosing value. Before you know it, you can't afford to pay back your bank loan. Not that this matters too much to the bank because it is already loosing money. The fixed amount of money it collects cannot cover things like bank employee salaries, that have to rise with inflation, so that people can afford to eat.

This is called the bubble bursting.

In regards to China, I have to disagree with Narwan about it being worse than the Asian Tigers in 1997.
1st: China has invested heavily in US bonds, guareenteeing a steady cash flow no matter what.
2nd: In 1997, China was able to take advantage of price hikes on Asian Tiger goods. They managed to establish a foothold in US markets because they could still supply goods cheaply. There is no such entity who can "slip-in" and take advantage of China's misfortunes
3rd: Having wittnessed the Asian Tigers in 1997, the world will approach the situation in a more sytematic way. For example, China will gradually loosen the controls on the Yuan. It will not free float overnight, instead changing the peg slowly to better reflect actual conditions. The bubble will not burst, but gently get smaller.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Saying that those traders caused the collapse of the asian economies is like saying that the assassination of archduke Ferdinand was the (sole) cause of the first world war. It was bound to happen and pretty soon too, it was unavoidable. Same thing with asian bubble in '97. Those traders didn't cause it, they flicked over a single domino stone and down came the whole house of cards. It was just as bound to happen.

Stock bound economies aren't necessairily build on hot air either, it's build on 'expectation'. Those expectations can be manipulated and it is that amount of manipulation that determines the amount of 'hot air' (Enron indeed). The chinese are doing just that on a scale larger probably than what caused the end of the japanese boom of the 80's (bank defaults and bad loans/investments mostly).

The chinese will slowly improve their lot, but don't forget that most of them are living in abject poverty, that the country lacks most of the needed (industrial and economic) infrastructure to improve the situation in China as a whole.
At best they can hope for gradual and substantial improvements in some regions, provided they can 'isolate' them from the rest to prevent their poverty from dragging down the succesful regions with them (as they say, China didn't take over Hongkong, Hongkong took over China! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif).
But it's unlikely that the masses that will be left behind will take kindly to it. Which is the real problem of the chinese government; they can't improve the whole of the country at the same time, but how to manage localised growth and improvements without triggering revoltes (both by the masses and by the local fiefs running their regions like the warlords of the old days)?

Edit: wrote the reply before I saw yours Kevin; I think the chinese are trying to work around the bubble by joining with others economies (the US especially) as close as possible under the assumption that 1) it will be in the US' economic interest (short term at least) to keep China's bubble alive and 2) the view economic power as a relative; if you can take down the adversary with you you may even end up on top!

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Alright, economy is not my domain, but you won't persuade me that the current world economic mechanisms can be subject to any level of instability, precisely because no one can tell the level of 'hot air' in the overall 'expectation'. What I meant was that the whole stock trading, where the percepted success of a firm generally leads to a rise in its stock value, which rises its funds and over you go again. This phenomenon encourages equally performance and fraud. And fraud is much easier, particularly when you are persuaded you'll never be caught, and if ever you're caught you'll never be punished (which is what comes up from the general news reports on many of these fraud affairs). And when fraud is uncovered, the percepted value of the stock appears wholly virtual, and then... I think I don't have to explain that to anyone. Anyway I won't try short explanations anymore, I've just seen the result http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/frown.gif

And (in the same summary flaw of mine) when I talked about traders running down the Thai economy, I didn't envision some crazed traders plotting to take over the world; I think Narwan corrected it alright: the situation was potentially unstable and some guys took advantage of it to make profits, kicking the pebble on top of the mountain. They weren't the single cause of the fall but (as for WW1) there is no way to tell what would have happened if they hadn't.
You can call this behaviour normal or irresponsible, but you have to admit that currencies don't move around and change value by themselves: there have to be people, everyday people whose job is to see that money is made somehow. Don't come and talk about some Invisible Hand of the Market, there are just humans around.

OK, that was the less short explanation (not as long as it should have been maybe), let's hope I won't look like a know-it-all moron this time! http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif Pardon me everyone, but I just wanted to start making things clearer here. I am glad to see that some of my betters have followed the path I have open...http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/rolleyes.gif

By the way, I think this thread derivates somehow, don't you find? Now that we've all stated WHY the Chinese will NOT attack Taiwan, maybe we can get back to seeing to those who want to make fictional scenarios get info others that "no! you can't do that! can't happen!" http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image.../firedevil.gif

Re: PlasmaKrab
 

Hehehe, it's rather fun to see threads such as this one take leaps where it does, over the fence and then back in.
I stumbled over this report from RAND, well actually the link was given to me by another. It might be interesting, sketching up the general perception of a conflict before the US might interrupt.
http://www.rand.org/publications/MR/MR1217/
Here, one also discusses the issue of China not having the amphibious strength to launch an invasion. The idea is that after securing sea- and air superiority, a reverse Dunkerque (sp?) is launched! Quite interesting, all of this. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/smile.gif
God, I hate these smileys...

Re: New chinese MBT
 

I think the comment "to what end" probably sums up the situation. It is ironic, since Chinese already conquered Taiwan, the losers took it when they lost the civil war in China. Now the winning side wants control of it. The operative word being "Control". I don't think it does the Chinese any good to ruin the Taiwan in its take over, no more than it would have made since for them to ruin Hong Kong in getting it back from the British. I would guess, that eventually, Tawain will go the way of Hong Kong. Just as it was mentioned that the US and China economies are intermixed, multiply that several times over when speaking of China and Taiwan. They are already one country but don't want to admit it yet. It would also eliminate a political hot spot for the US.

As for amphibious assault, I bet there have been many wars lost by assuming an opponent can't do something because they can't do the way they thought it should be done.

But I think I am contributing to getting this way off subject. I would be interested in knowing more about the new tank and its specs. Is there an official name for this tank now?

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Some food for thought
China is I believe the richest nation in the world & since taking back Hong Kong has made major moves to improve trade & become a major player in the world.
It wants a voice thats listened to & yes may well be aiming to usurp the USA as the major power, do they have a plan for this?
Military spending means people take them seriosly.
Heavy spending of recent on tech esp stuff that addresses resources are running dry means they want to be at the forefront of replacement techs, plus the voice might mean they get a share of whats left.
On the political front I believe a huge chunk of USAs national debt is owed to guess who, not talking billions here keep going. This could be used as leverage or suppose they say give it back you have 10 years to repay.
Response we can't do it fine we now own a good part of the USA & can really get on with trading with the world.
Don't see how anyone can take Americas side they owe the money so if China says we will have the West coast at current land prices what happens exactly.
Why bother with Taiwan they need the space
Last time I looked USA was 1st China 2nd when it comes to GDP the diffrence is China has a huge profit while USA owes over 10 trillion or most of its GDP.
As a foot note I lived in Hong Kong when British ruled it & if China copies its economic model they are on a winner.
I could never figure out where all the money came from.
Tax free port for trade
Very good pay
Very low taxes you had to be a millionare to pay British basic tax rate perhaps because of this there are lots of them.
Still managed to pay millions to Britain.
Quality of life streets ahead of the UK.
Some people will say what about the poverty, not nearly as bad as you think & sorry if offend anyone but Chinese prefer to live in what we would call cramped conditions.
Whole families multi generation under one roof & they saved the pennies.
The modern Chinese has adopted Western trends more space & spends so Hong Kong has the highest percentage of luxury stuff like Rolls Royce in the world & your average Joe drives a Merc because they prefer them to BMWs.
To give you an idea project I was on had to relocate a poor village goverment gave each family a shop & each male got a BIG flat, all females got 1/2 a flat. They promptly sold them all exept the one the family moved into.
I was in goverment flats as working for my master bedroom was well over 16' square with 2 verandas & I used to start most days by swimming in the pool that serviced 16 flats.

I just state these as examples because if Chinas economic model is based on Hong Kong the world had better start paying attention & maybe the military spending is there to make sure it does

Edit just realised what forum this is in

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Not true. Before the first world war there were many years of sped up armaments purchases and developments, there was a fast high speed cold war in progress in Europe. Huge (for then) espionage activities and interception of mail from one embassy to the other (the first time officialy for the UK, among others) The assasination was not mainly a catalyst, it was an excuse and the war would have taken place sooner or later anyway. Lots of arms, bad history, bad tempers, lots of mistrust = war.

Hitler wasn't the "catalyst". The peace treaty of the first world war was the ingredient that prepared the second world war.

Re: New chinese MBT
 

Has anyone actually taken a look at the state of the Chinese economy in the last few months? Its been hit pretty hard by the recent economic turmoil. It's investors, most of whom are Westerners, are starting to tighten their belts with a vengeance.

lets just see where this economic crisis leads us before we start dreaming up fantastical notions of Chinese supremacy.

Their economic growth, though very rapid, is still nowhere near high enough for them to overtake the West. The standard of living in China is still proportionately much lower than it is in Europe and America (isn't likely to improve either as the low maintenance associated with that is one of the key things that made the country so damn attractive to foreign investors in the first place). Salaries are lower across the board and Hong Kong, precisely because it was run by the British, is an exception rather than a rule. China would need many more years of virtually unimpeded growth to even begin to be on a par with the West in any of these aspects. This of course is no longer possible thanks to our little friend financial crisis.

China is almost entirely dependent on exports to other countries (mainly developed ones). As we are not exactly talking about specialist products or even crucial ones it makes things that much more fragile for their economy if things go wrong elsewhere. Why? Simple. The stuff they make anyone can and, if worse does indeed come to worst even the most arrogant Europeans and Americans will be willing to go back to making shirts and electrical appliances if it means rebuilding their own economies and securing better futures for themselves down the line. The fortunes of x million Chinese workers will be the last thing on their minds.

We might even see the end of the so called Global Economy if it turns out that the inter-dependence is what caused the damage to spread so far so fast. After all there are always two sides to every coin. We saw the benefits and now we are going to see the rest.

Bottom line is that China, like any of the Asian economies (save possibly Japan, Singapore and a couple of others) can only prosper when its customers are prospering. Its own population is in no position to what the West does for it at the moment.

China and the rest of these countries came too late to the party.