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-   -   Question for Luck Experts (http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/showthread.php?t=33935)

Xietor March 24th, 2007 04:19 PM

Question for Luck Experts
 
I typically take order and not luck. The friends I play with flat out refuse to set the game at anything other than random events "rare." Given that, would it be worth taking 3 luck if I also planned on taking 3 order?

We do play 300 province maps, so i typically have quite a few provinces by mid game. Pangaea does have good heroes, and my understanding is 3 luck would double my chance to get 1, even with random events on rare and order at 3?

Xietor March 24th, 2007 04:26 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
I assume that the higher dominion you can get the better as well. No need to pay increase your luck to 3 and have zero luck in squares next to your capitol.

Meglobob March 24th, 2007 04:38 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Well personally if random events were set to rare than I would take misfortune-3 everytime, its a no brainer. So my advice is under such conditions do not take luck, this does however mean, no heros.

A couple of months ago, a helpful chap ran tests on order-3(pt. cost 120) vs turmoil-3/luck-3(pt. cost 0) to see which was best. In the short term upto turn 30'ish order-3 was vastly better moneywise and of course very few nasty events. However, beyond turn 30 turmoil/luck seemed to draw level moneywise and was viewed a better option overall because of all the free gem events, free castle events, free lab events, free temple events, free soldiers events, free mages events and free magic item events.

So you pays your money and takes your choice!

Wauthan March 24th, 2007 04:42 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Yes, Luck 3 will greatly increase the chance for a hero unit regardless of the order/turmoil scale.

I don't think it's worth taking luck 3 for the sole purpose of attracting hero units though. Even with Turin's hero mod they are not worth 120 pretender points. It's far better to go for Turmoil 3/Luck 3, especially with Pangea, since this means you get lucky for "free" and your Panii will attract quite a lot of Maneads.

Hellboy March 24th, 2007 05:17 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Quote:

Xietor said:
I typically take order and not luck. The friends I play with flat out refuse to set the game at anything other than random events "rare."

How sad! (Says a T'ien Ch'i luck fan http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/smilies/wink.gif)

Teraswaerto March 24th, 2007 05:35 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
You get free commanders other than heroes too, and magic items. It can open up paths you'd otherwise have no access to. Still, with rare events I would not take luck.

Xietor March 24th, 2007 05:48 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
On big maps, even with events set on rare, i still seem to get a good number when i own 70 provinces, so it may be a chance per province.

Hellboy March 24th, 2007 06:13 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Quote:

Xietor said:
On big maps, even with events set on rare, i still seem to get a good number when i own 70 provinces, so it may be a chance per province.

I'm pretty sure that is correct.

FrankTrollman March 25th, 2007 04:51 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Deleted.

Sombre March 25th, 2007 07:57 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
I don't like to play with misfortune 3, regardless of order, because it means you never get any heroes. At least misfortune 2 allows you the very slim chance of getting one.

That's not a preference based on winning strat, it's just that I don't like to rule out a thematic and fun piece of my nation.

Sandman March 25th, 2007 08:02 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
In a recent game, I had two bad events in my capital on turn 2. Rather annoying.

Xietor March 25th, 2007 09:50 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
i never take any misfortune. too unpredictable. When i need points, i would rather take things i know what the effects are, like negative temperature or sloth.

Xietor March 25th, 2007 10:38 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
I am playing 300 province map, 3 order, 3 luck. I do not get a lot random events(rare game setting), but i have got 1 hero, and several boosts of gold and gems. I only own about 10 provinces, getting an event every other turn or so.

Methel March 25th, 2007 11:24 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Im running a game with misfortune 3, order 3 drain 2. seems thats not so good an idea. Getting barbarian attacks (lesser and major) almost every turn. Sometimes more than one http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...ies/tongue.gif

Xietor March 26th, 2007 01:42 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
I had 4 in one turn today, playing 3 order 3 luck events common(solo game). 2 of the events occurred in the same province. All 3 provinces were mine at the start and end of my turn, and i had gorgon.

DrPraetorious March 26th, 2007 07:44 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Even with rare events, I'd take misfortune 2 rather than misfortune 3.

AFACT, The "event is bad" modifier doesn't just make events more likely to be bad - it makes events *worse*.

In the controlled studies I ran, misfortune 3 was basically never worth it (vs misfortune 2), even at events rare. I would not take luck with rare events, however.

There is some sort of combined effect from fortune with other beneficial scales - order 3 / fortune 3 gets fewer events than turmoil 3 / fortune 3, but the events you get are more likely to produce money? I haven't run enough tests to say conclusively, but fortune 3 / productivity 3 and fortune 3 / growth 3 both seem to get more money than they "should".

Baalz March 26th, 2007 10:52 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Another thing to consider is that income from luck (as far as I know) doesn't show up on the score graphs. Taking order vs turmoil/luck will show you as having significantly stronger income on the charts (close to a 60% swing in apparent income). I've found in the MP games I play that this is a significant consideration because of the importance of diplomacy. Of course, appearing too weak is even worse than appearing too strong, so when I say worth considering that's exactly what I mean.

Xietor March 26th, 2007 01:33 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
What is this diplomacy that you speak of? There can be only one true god, and that be mine! hehe.

Ironhawk March 26th, 2007 07:36 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Quote:

Xietor said:
I had 4 in one turn today, playing 3 order 3 luck events common(solo game). 2 of the events occurred in the same province. All 3 provinces were mine at the start and end of my turn, and i had gorgon.

Order scale influences the number of events you get. So it is counterproductive to take Order and Luck at the same time. If you were really insistent on taking luck I would say take only Luck 1. Any more than that is a waste since Order 3 will reduce the overall number of events.

Xietor March 26th, 2007 07:47 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
On big maps i get plenty of events with 3 order and 3 luck. I got 4 in one turn!

Foodstamp March 26th, 2007 07:47 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
I have been testing order 3 with luck 3 lately. It yields interesting results. Turmoil 3 luck 3 used to yield a lot of unrest events for me. Choosing Order 3 Luck 3 seems to cut the total events I have received by a fraction, but the events I do receive are good more often than turmoil 3 luck 3. The only notable bad event I can think of recently in both games I am trying these scales is 2 units getting cursed. I like this scale layout, it yields great events without some of the more chaotic ones.

I need to test it more to decide if the reduction in events really makes it worthwhile, but both games I am running yielded 3 events last turn (one was the curse event) so It seems that they cancel each other to a point of making events still fairly common.

PS. I got a national hero on turn two with those scales!

Ironhawk March 26th, 2007 09:37 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Its possible that the luck statistics break down on larger maps. But I personally would not consider Order and Luck to be a good investment of design points.

Tichy March 26th, 2007 10:24 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
I too have noticed (I think) that Luck and Order interact. Fewer events overall, but even a smaller proportion of the events are bad than with luck/turmoil.

Come to think of it -- might it be that there are certain *kinds* of bad event, namely unrest/revolt events and maybe big barbarian hordes -- that order prevents?

DrPraetorious March 26th, 2007 11:00 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
That was certainly true in Dominions 2. Many of the more extreme events had a scale requirement - so the largest barbarian hordes *required* turmoil.

I have noticed that -
death/misfortune seems to get more plagues,
growth/luck seems to get more pop growth events,
productivity/luck seems to get more free improvements (temples, forts, defense rating, resource production, etc.).

I'm not sure if it's just that some events require scales (as seemed to be the case in dom 2) or if your other scales bias which events you get. It requires more testing.

Sombre March 26th, 2007 11:54 PM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
Good feature though, making events depend on more than just luck percentages.

Xietor April 2nd, 2007 01:30 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
In a recent game I am playing Man, rare events, 1 turmoil, 3 luck. I now own 38 provinces and am getting 2-3 events a turn. It is Cradles Map with Edi's fix.

Early in the game, when you just have a couple of provinces, the luck does not help too much, but you still average 1 event every 2 turns at the start.

And, you also avoid a horrific event at your capital early in the game. Luck is not something I use a ton, but it does add some fun to the game. In my present game, I received 3,000 gold 1 turn when i really needed it fighting 3 nations. Also got the blood magic item that gives you the never ending supply of imps, which i could not received without the luck.

But on big maps, the rare event setting is not a huge handicap. And getting mines that permanently add 60 gold to 3 provinces, made up for the hit of not taking 2order/no luck.

Xietor April 5th, 2007 11:35 AM

Re: Question for Luck Experts
 
New game, man same set up as above, 1 turmoil 3 luck, events rare, got Olegs alchemy thing on my 2nd turn at my capital, 100 gold a turn for the rest of the game. Also had 4 heroes by turn 20.


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