What if...
 

Here is some fodder for what if battles or campaigns. Hopefully this will stay as wargames... http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/03/...AEditors+Picks

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There's been a lot of talk of wargaming a Russia vs Sweden conflict lately since they are not part of NATO and would not invoke the Article 5 commitment. I know they work closely with NATO but iirc are not covered under the treaty itself.

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Stock scenarios#149, 150, 173, 174 and 175 by Ulf Lundstrom are cold war what if scenarios involving Soviet Union vs Sweden, although set 25 years before than the would be scenarios of timeline suggested by op, those prove that they can be very well designed if attention to detail is kept in mind as always with scenario design :up: :eye: :rus :swe

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It was rather sobering to read that Germany now has only 250 serviceable MBTs and that the US has only 2 combat brigades in Europe. Seems like Russia could overrun the Baltics or Ukraine anytime it chooses.

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Hmm... . As much as I enjoy yesterday's left-overs, I think re-heating the Cold War - something the liberal media etc have tried to do since 2012 or thereabouts - is a bit desperate to say the least.

If the Russians are smart - and I do believe their leaders are - they will leave the West - especially Western Europe - to its own devices - even if provoked.

We've screwed ourselves over enough - without any help from abroad - and it doesn't look like we'll be providing any leadership in the short term to deal with the problems we are facing in anything like "good time".

Hell, it is far more likely that large swathes of Europe will descend into a "Yugoslav" scenario long before the first Russian tanks start rolling westwards.

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I don't think ethnic tensions in most of Europe are near as high as they were in Yugoslavia. And keep in mind what happened between Quebec and the rest of Canada. There will ALWAYS be a few hotheads but most people don't think the situation is bad enough to start shooting at each other about.

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The EU is in a very weak position these days: The Euro zone is a total disaster and immigration policy (re economic migrants, rather than genuine refugees) a total mess up. Border policy a total mess. UK certainly should leave it, many other nations -including even France- now see its huge draw backs.

So sure EU might well break up (and not before time if you ask me).

The 'new cold war' is merely traditional Russian policy coming back again. I am not at all sure it is vital to western Europe to defend the Baltic States, even if -a very big if indeed- it is possible.

Meantime, aside from warfare resulting from who has the best invisible friend in the sky (sigh, in the 21st Century) China remains the real threat to the West, very heavily involved in Africa, rich, autocratic, expansionist, and building up her Navy with Aircraft Carriers, etc.

If European nations can defend their borders against a vast mass of mostly purely economic migrants, China, for my money remains the longer term and more serious threat...

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China is certainly a regional threat but it has quite a way to go before becoming a world threat (other then nuclear).
You don't build a fleet overnight, and you certainly don't get the training and experience needed to be anything but a 3rd rate one regardless of how technologically advanced your ships are in anything less then 15-20 years after you have enough ships built.
I don't care how big and advanced their army is if they can't get it anywhere and supply it once it's there it's not a major world threat.

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Logistics IS the key to everything related to military operations

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Operating, of course, on the principal that China's competitors at the very least maintain their current standards / readiness throughout this 20-30 year period.

If the over-all quality of Western Navies deteriorates in the mean time then the experience gap becomes much smaller and is therefore more readily obtainable within a shorter time period.

Navies are expensive to run at the best of times. Sailors don't stay in the service nearly as long as they once used to either and I'm pretty sure that demographic shifts will play more of a role regarding over-all recruit quality/performance as time goes by in the West as well.

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Big if!

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Didn't take too long with Yugoslavia either. It kicked off in the eighties after Tito died and was an all out shooting war by 1991. Some will say foreign powers had something to do with the rapidity of it. That is debateable. What makes anyone think that a fractured Europe would be immune from external manipulation? The EU is already hardly immune.

Believe me, Europe will not need ten years. The cracks are already visible.

The East does not agree with the West about how to deal with Europe's problems.

The North does not agree with the South.

No one is being fiscally responsible anymore - not even Germany.

All the other problems will become more apparent as time goes by and because there simply cannot be enough GDP to go around to pay for the 24hour / 365 day a year distractions that will be necessary to keep people ticking over, at some point something will give.

People will then do what they always do when this happens.

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While I agree that one cannot build a navy overnight( my son is joining the RN) China has in fact been building up her navy for some time now.
China is certainly a regional threat today to Japan, Australia and India for example and of course the US and even UK still have treaty obligations in that part of the world.

Also, as I said China is also very heavily involved in Africa, including helping to prop up such nasty leaders as Mugabe in Zimbabwe...

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You probably read this but some may not have

http://www.theguardian.com/world/201...el-peace-prize

China hits a new low.....

If the purpose of Chinas "aid" to Mugabe is to keep the country a perpetual basket case they are doing a wonderful job

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Probably why Japan has been rebuilding it's own navy, there is now a permanent USMC presence in Darwin, and the Philippines have been rearming.
I'm not downplaying China as a regional threat, it is. I'm just saying that on the world stage it's a paper tiger.
And as provocative as they are being locally I think it's a modern version of the Sudetenland/Austrian Annexation. The real question is ... how much will the rest of the world let them get away with before they say "ENOUGH!"

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I think we'll know within the year with China, when the International Court rules on the territorial issues concerning their man made islands in the South China Sea. They are actively pursuing an aggressive modernization of their Navy to include Carriers and "Nuc Boats" (Subs) and we've known about work with the Army and Air Force for awhile now. The "P.I." wants us back at least to Clark AFB as they have no real Air Force to speak of and we've been giving/or selling them decommissioned ASW class ships and as I'll post hopefully soon for instance modernized M113A2 tracks (~248) and as pointed out everyone from India (i.e. RAFALES etc.) "around the horn" to Japan (i.e. Poseidon ASW aircraft.) has increased their defense budgets. If theirs a "dust up" it could happen there, however I believe the economics involved will prevent it for quite some time it would appear that China's use of concrete (Worlds leading user more then Europe and U.S. combined last year.) to build the unpopulated cities could potentially make our mortgage crisis of 2008 look like a "burp" in comparison. 60 minutes (And others.) did an excellent story on this about 3yrs. ago- something creepy about an empty city built for 150,000 being completely empty and there were about seven of them at that time.

Russia is doing the same with their military and I know Sweden was a part of this conversation, to that issue I believe the "NORDIC ALLIANCE" (If you will.) agreement was signed last month or is very close to being signed. This was brought about by Russia's involvement in the Ukraine at the beginning of that crisis. The countries involved are Sweden, Finland and Norway. The obvious problem for Russia in attacking Sweden is the other two will respond, which legally could mean NATO by default could have to get involved as the other two are NATO members as you all know. Russia wouldn't risk it. We as in the U.S. are actually building and manning bases in the Baltic states and surrounding area such as Romania. Their only real land moves are and continue to be in the Ukraine for now though the Crimea certainly solidifies their position in regards to the Black Sea. Their Navy hasn't been this active with deployments in about 15-20yrs and their sphere influence is slowly expending, though Iran this week as now Iran flush with the released funds (And interest earned on them.) told Russia "We're not buying your T-90S tanks." they intend to develop a new one they say will be more advanced.

The next big war will either be economic or driven by economics/resources and I'll take that bet any day. For Europe it's easy for Russia they just turn off the spigot to the Natural Gas Europe depends upon so heavily. Russia just did that not that long ago and Merkel (Forgive my spelling.) of Germany threatened economic sanctions and Russia backed down quickly. Why? Because like the U.S. and China, Germany and Russia have deep economic ties that bind them together. If one fails it will hurt the other-again look at the news-things aren't great right now are they?

Weapons are tools-Economics drive the engine.

Though I hope during our visit in Oct. to Ireland the "engine" here will continue to run better than Europe's because right now the EURO is below the DOLLAR but the POUND could drop a little more before we get to ULSTER and maybe Scotland for a "quickie"! :p Yep another selfish American. :rolleyes:

Well time to watch the World News and see what's going on. I hope you all have a GREAT and PROSPEROUS (I'm such a stinker.) weekend!!!! :happy:

Regards,
Pat

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One thing is certain and that is uncertainty.

If you had told a British serviceman, or political type, in 1980 that over the next 35 years UK forces would see action in the Falkland Islands, the Balkans, Iraq (twice) West Africa and Afghanistan, and one or two other places, I think many would have doubted you...

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A supreme understatement..............