Weapons accuracy
 

A small question that is a bit long:

Weapon A has an accuracy of 30 with a range of 2000 meters. Unit X with this weapon has 80% experience, country training is on. Said unit has a clear LOS to target, is not under suppression or pinned. Moved one hex (yes, I use the hex grid) target is roughly 6 hexes away. Enemy unit is an M48 tank.

Unit X fires and hits with the first two weapons, then the third weapon fires, the bar at the top of the screen says it has a 73% chance of hitting the M48. Somehow the misses by hit one full hex over and to the left.

So what all goes into the to-hit probability equation? I just quit a battle because no matter what my side fired, regardless of moving or sitting still out of three weapons fired average for each unit, 1 might hit and then it was lucky to kill the target, computer though, damn it was like they could not miss.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Germany VS USA in North Africa 1942 My PZ-IVH kept missing his M3 Stuarts but the M3 Stuarts kept hitting AND getting special damage over and over. Of course this was SPWW2 not SPMBT.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

There will always be times in any game, especially one with chance in its fundamental design, where things will go wrong for one side or well for another. That is the nature of random numbers. Sometimes you make bank from the casino - but mainly the casino gains from you.

Oddly enough, though every so often some frustrated player will pop up with something like your post, hardly ever does anyone do the opposite and say it's too easy. Though everyone will have thier tale of zipping some tank over a hill and firing off a Hail Mary shot at a ridiculous range - and connecting.

The firing routines are composed of many functions that call many subordinate functions - not a simple odds-shift table as in tabletop wargames. Nor can any details other than what is in the Mobhack help file be let out due to the NDA.

But the AI fires according to exactly the same rules as you. The only time it will gain an advantage might be in a scenario where the designer assigned a few Wittmans to oppose you. Experience is a major player in to-hit rolls and failure (or not) of the various fumbles that can happen in the code - as is suppression, and EXP helps deal with that as well.

But if truly frustrated, you could always exit and return to a previous save and try again and see if the laws of randomness were with you this time. The random number seed is not saved with each savegame.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Thanks for the info Mobhack, I would not be complaining per se if for two turns no matter what I did the computer always seemed to get first shot hits or kills and I was lucky if one out four units firing hit anything.

It was annoying enough to perk my interest as to why it was happening, normally I see the opposite, where both myself and the computer are not hitting for anything till we are like three hexes away. Again thanks for trying to explain things and I will head back in and see what happens.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Right. From personal experience battle results even out over time. Sometimes it seems your stationary guys can't hit anything, then one tank moves full MP, takes a single shot at 600 meters and scores a kill. Call it the uncertainty of war. Improbable things happen.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

If you have time ( and who doesn't ATM......) try an experiment.

Save after every turn and if you get a situation like you describe go back and restart the turn and play it out. Try that a couple of times and keep that original save then shut down the game and play that turn again.... then reboot your computer and play that turn again and I think you will see that things do not happen the same way twice.

I know it can be frustrating and at least once a year someone brings it up and it's always a variation on " the AI can hit a hummingbird but I can't hit the broad side of a barn"....... and I have been there too where it seems like the AI is superman but IT IS AS ANDY SAID........ the AI gets no to-hit bonus and it's the random number generator that has kept this game going long after games with more predictable results have faded away.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

As an only me against the AI player, it's an advantage (As Don just mentioned.) I strongly feel the AI should have.

I say this because it has it's own set of disadvantages we don't have, namely near the top of that list is resupply for starters and fully "independent thought" and all the other things (Including myself.) players have brought up over the years.

That AI advantage is a small price to pay, given all ours.

Finally yes I've "scratched my head" many times out here over that issue, but I've seen it happen in my favor as well over the years where it seems the only way a unit(s) didn't get a hit was because it was immobilized or destroyed. That happens just as rarely as well.

I still feel strongly that the AI does an excellent job as modeled currently with some enhancements that were made over the last few years especially.

The more you put limitations on yourself with the expectation (Whatever that is besides...) of winning the battle, the more challenging you'll find the AI.

Regards,
Pat
:capt:

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Pat....... we both said there is no AI advantage and there is no AI advantage or special code only the AI uses. The "rules" built into the code apply to both human and AI equally. It gets "bad days" too just nobody complains about those much unless it's the AI pushing units one after another into a kill zone which it will do from time to time but it's a tactic that works if the human player is having a "bad day" or moving and firing or using troops with borderline experience/morale

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

As Don says the random factors are what make the game as you have to adjust your strategy to compensate for the surprises. It all evens out in the end but produces some tense moments or lucky openings.

Fortunately the game guide gives clear info on what units are capable of, the different systems (range finder etc), effects of movement, suppression etc.
Along with the likely effect the weapon will have on the target.

After a while you get a feel of what your & the enemies forces are capable of so you can predict the likely outcome of an exchange & play to your units strengths & weaknesses.
Most of the time things go pretty much as expected & its the ones that don't that make it interesting.
The game catches the fact that while you can predict the outcome there is no certainty in war.

My best moment from the last battle was an ATGM team that I thought was lost doing a full rally gaining its movement points & shots back & taking out the tank that fired at it. Next turn I was able to capitalise on this surprise outcome.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

I've seen this as well over the years. A unit has moderate to high suppression to the point they can barley return fire and not move but they have a shot and take it and that causes enemy casualties which boosts morale and reduces suppression and they are back in the fight with their MP back........... a " heroic rally" moment.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

One I get caught on reasonably often is using to few units to herd & shoot up routing units as they are an easy kill. 2 squads & a MG can comfortably keep the suppression on a dozen routed units.
However if one suddenly decides its had enough and rallies things can get interesting, my squads are often close & fast moving to keep up so they might kill one of my men & suddenly there is a domino effect as more go enough & now I am in trouble.
When doing this I have learned do not let a nearby high value unit go bang that seems to restore their fighting spirit.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

So I am building a 1987 Polish CG. In the first scenario both sides of air power (its a battalion sized CG). A few turns in much to my surprise (as the scenario designer/editor, I gave the AI a flight of WG fighters, but did not plot any moves, I set them to reinforce and gave them a reaction turn and wanted to see how the AI handled them), well they AI handled them pretty well. In fact in both my turn and the AI turn we both had mistaken air attacks.

The good news is that the AI correctly assessed the 'threat' and put his Fighters to good use, well at least one caused some havoc on my closing in Poles. The AI's other fighter bombed and strafed one of his own. I thought so gleefully, until my Polish pilot attacked my Polish FO Vehicle, lol.

Good great fun!

Here is turn screenshots.

This is the area where the AI sent his two fighters. Note that the VH is where one of the AI's fighter strafed and the section where the D0-PL is where the other AI's fighter bombed.
https://i.imgur.com/Cv2jSz9.png

This is where I did not want my Polish fighter to attack (was suppose to go after some Milan puffs of smoke).
https://i.imgur.com/Y3RzvZX.png

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Generally speaking I've found that if there's a friendly unit within about 1000m (20 hexes) of an enemy one the friendly target will get hit about as often as the enemy.

I ASSUME this has to do with visibility. Since an aircraft may not "see" the enemy unit and just attacks the one closest to it's designated target that it can "see".

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

I have not ( yet ) found a definition for Danger Close ( air ) but how much ya wanna bet it's 1000m ?:D


We have had brief discussions in the past regarding penalties for blue on blue but it would be a PITA to code

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

The search radius for planes is 20 hexes - 1000 metres in other words.

Pilots are not that good at Identification Friend or Foe.

(The Operational Research guys found one halftrack positioned on a hill in the post falaise investigation, so it stood out somewhat. It had been strafed from multiple different directions with strikes from rockets, bombs, 20mm, 50 cal etc found all around it. The OR guys determined that one knocked out halftrack had probably been claimed as a "kill" by at least a dozen pilots, if not more)

They do tend to attack an identified enemy if there is an observer with eyes on to an enemy in that zone, but if they have to search for themselves, everything is fair game to the Air Farce...

Hence, not a good idea to have planes overfly your side on the way to the intended target as then it may pick one of your units as its target for tonight.

So planes should only be vectored onto targets well away from friends, unless you have a dedicated observer with eyes on the target at arrival. And they should not overfly friendlies near the target on approach if you can avoid that.

"Close" air support is relative - it means attacks on things at least a click away from friendlies, preferably more.

In Normandy the UK used "pink" strikes as one way to deconflict air from friends - artillery fired red smoke in a belt 2-3 km deep, planes were allowed to kill any vehicle in one direction and not to attempt strikes whatsovever on the friendly side of the pink line...

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

During Gulf I there were many tanks with multiple hits from coalition air, and undoubtedly reported as a confirmed kill each and every time.

I don't really blame the pilots for this, as Mobhack said, it's hard to be sure of anything from 20,000 ft at 600 MPH.

The USMC relies HEAVILY on air strikes and with an observer the "rule of thumb" is 1 yd per lb. So a 500# bomb within 500yds, a 2000# no closer 2000yds. But unlike the vast majority of pilots those of the USMC do little but ground support. I'm sure USAF A-10 pilots are just as accurate.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

1 yd per lb.is a good rule of thumb to remember in situations like that though taken to extremes it does not apply. Standing a yard away from an M67 will not brighten your day in a good way

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The Gulf War actually demonstrated modern guided weapons work brilliantly versus known targets but are not much use if you cannot find your target.
We all saw targeting a window on a building is easy however spotting a dug in camouflaged tank is still very hard hence the one that is poorly concealed gets hit several times.
Translates in game do not move your vehicles if an attack is incoming seek cover the turn before.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Or if you suspect air is coming, run some sacrificial trucks around in high speed circles as bait. Might work, if you are into gamey tactics..

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In reality (I don't know about crunchies, i.e. grunts or the infantryman), but us tankers hated and feared jets, we could not shoot at them, and if they came over our ao we would go like mad into trees to hide from them (this was versus our own air in exercises in Germany with MILES equipment on).

Once in the desert we were doing maintenance ('cat napping') on our tank and an Warthog buzzed over the top of us (about 10 feet about us) and I think we all had to change our under garments, you can't hear those things until they are right on top of you, thank God they were on our side, I still can hear the Bbbbburrrpp and know that is 1k or so rounds ripping something to shreds.

Once our Earth Pig (FOO in a modified M113) called in a 'Shake and Bake' and they dropped 2k iron bombs on some Iraqi bunkers and followed that up with gas bombs (we could not use napalm).

Choppers you can shoot, with your 50 cal, but when they are hovering over your tank about 15 to 20 feet up your sure glad they are on your side as they are sending out their rockets of death.

Pretty crazy stuff.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

The OR guys analysing air strikes after Normandy found that the main effect on armoured units was the sheer panic disorganisation that the strike would cause to the march column. The tankers would charge full speed offroad into the bushes or simply bail from the tanks and take cover in roadside ditches - where they were in more danger from the strafing, really.

Intuitively they knew that if they stayed buttoned up then they were likely to survive, but enough of them had seen or knew of someone who talked about having seen what a (rare) direct bomb or rocket hit did. So they were not willing to take any chances and saw evasion as the key. Basic human psycology at work.

It took a fair amount of time post strike to get the rabbits back in thier hutches and all pointed in the same direction. Plus rapid turns off-road would throw tracks or have tanks falling into roadside ditches etc, and some injuries to be dealt with from the avoidance - add a few casualties from flying bits of metal on tankies cowering in the ditches or behind roadside walls etc.

The real "killing" effect of air strikes on armour were when the logistics train got brewed up, then the clockwork mice eventually stopped running without the loggies around.

They found some tanks post-Falaise gap air strikes (and/or massed arty) that had been left abandoned with motors idling in the bocage high-sided lanes as they were completely surrounded by a wire tangle of mangled trucks and howitzers, dead horsed transports etc which the tanks simply could not actually cross. (Piano wire used in Italian vineyards was also a surprising tank-sticker. It wrapped round the sprockets like an old rope does for a boat's propellor.)

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Another case of things just going your way getting this unit out of there before the arty comes in.

WWII battle as USA 50/30cal MG section firing at dug in targets at near to max range for the 30cals -900 to 1200m

Turn X - kills half the crew of a 3.7cm Flak gun leaving a squad to finish it. Turns its attention to a Pak (ATG) & destroys it.

Next Turn - Fires at 2 more Pak guns destroying one routing the other.
My infantry have been busy scouting but not good enough another Pak opens up in the enemy turn & is dispatched with 2 reaction fire shots!

That's a mad 5 minutes for that unit 5 guns in 2 turns the advance is progressing far better than I expected because of it, cancelled my wasted arty plots.
Looked & no super unit 69 experience.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Sorry cannot edit range should have been 1800-2200

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

And I'll bet if you had the game saved from just before those two turns and you ran it again after shutting your computer down and re-booting you'd see different results.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

Pretty sure I would that is not going to happen twice.
Paid the price already sent in the planes as thought I had cleared the AA on that side. Both hit one shot down by Marder's on first run

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I have ran saves (for testing) twice without shutting down and it’s always different. Sometimes completely different in that P1 got the worse for wear than P2. Truely random.

Re: Weapons accuracy
 

As I said - we do not save the random seed in game saves to restore the pseudo-random sequence on a save game reload. Some games apparently do - the easy way to get around such games that do that sort of 'spoiler' tactic, is to do different things on reloading the save (fire units in different orders, move something differently etc).

I think we do one set to the clock variable on entry is all, from memory.