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Ukraine 2021(?)
So, in case you've missed it all, there's a HUGE military buildup going on in the Ukraine and on Russia's borders near Ukraine.
According to a Ukrainian journalist, a naval order has been issued by Russia banning ships from foreign countries in the Kerch Strait heading for the Sea of Azov from April 24 due to military exercises. ... New: Current & former officials say there are no geographic restrictions on the deployment of the Javelin missiles Ukraine purchased from the U.S., and argue that Kyiv would be justified in moving the weapons to the frontlines amid Russia's buildup ... Russian Minister of Defence Shoigu: "two armies and three VDV formations were deployed to the western borders of Russia to carry out combat training tasks as part of a combat readiness test." (RIA) ... Ukraine's military intelligence (testimony to the parliament): Russia will complete its troop deployment at Ukraine's borders around 20 April, with up to 110 thousand troops. For context: it's almost half of active personnel in Ukraine's entire Armed Forces ... Signs are going up in the Russian camps that roughly translate to "Hard training makes the combat easy". ... The 559th Fighter Bomber Aviation Regiment, equipped with SU-34 jets, has been deployed to the Black Sea region. ... There's videos of everything being moved around -- there's an Ukrainian convoy near Mariupol on Youtube this morning with T-64B1Ms, BTR-3s, BTR-4 and MT-LB-ZU-23s in the convoy. People seem to think it's the Azov Regiment. I know there's no scenario here (yet), but it's a placeholder thread. I'll try to have something, but I am juggling a lot of plates now. :cold: |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
To give you an idea of the equippage of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), here's a few shots from a concert given for 1 AC (DPR) troops a few days ago:
https://denis-pushilin.ru/wp-content..._130421-17.jpg https://denis-pushilin.ru/wp-content..._130421-18.jpg https://denis-pushilin.ru/wp-content..._130421-21.jpg https://denis-pushilin.ru/wp-content..._130421-19.jpg https://denis-pushilin.ru/wp-content...t_130421-4.jpg Things to note: Others have noticed the lack of fancy optics (IR etc) for the BMPs, and lack of anti-RPG grates for the BMPs; giving you an idea of the level of tech quality Donetsk People's Republic troops have. |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
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This is a simple assault scenario. I haven't playtested it that throroughly; so don't invest too much of your time to it. If you're having difficulties; just quit and let me know if it's too hard or whatnot.
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For whatever reason I do not have victory locations displayed or placed in this scenario.
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I knew I was forgetting something. |
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The Ukrainian ATGMs are doing an amazing job of stopping the Russian's dead cold, three run-throughs, and three times I have lost more APC/Armor to Javelins, etc...than I think I have seen happen before. Also, the onboard artillery stays in a set fire pattern for several turns and doesn't show up in the bombardment artillery control window to allow me to adjust things forward or pick new areas for them. I have to move them to regain control. Snowdrifts are a ton of fun at stopping things as well since trying to keep the woods between the armor and the ATGM teams sounded like a grand idea...and then I meet snowdrifts. |
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Not sure about the need to reduce their numbers, the morale/experience side might be better to go with.
The Russian artillery...tricky, having them blast away is good, but not being able to adjust once you get close to the trenches and such, yeah I am not big on Friendly Fire. Maybe split the SP Arty into some onboard and some offboard with the offboard being the continuous firing set. |
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Funnily enough I had entirely opposite experience with Ukrainian ATGM teams when I started scenario as Ukrainians. They launched like a dozen Javelins in op-fires during Russian first turn and hit only three times. Killing two BMP-3s and lightly damaging another.
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Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
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Build a simple sceanrio. You have one tank, the AI gets 1 ATG or ATGM depending on the year Deploy the AT gun / ATGM team so that it has clear LOF to a roadway say about 6-8 hexes away from it with an ATG and maybe a bit further with the ATGM team. Place the tank on the road just out of LOS of the AT gun Save the scenario Start the scenario...... move your tank down that road. In a test I ran a few times, each time generated a different result
It would be very, very rare to replay a turn and have the same thing happen over and over. That was the way the game was designed from the start and we have reinforced that behaviour so two people doing the same thing getting different results is normal. |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
I think a scenario like this shows WHY the Russians went with the BMP-3's armament.
It seems all so crazy -- 100mm low pressure gun AND a 30mm autocannon for an IFV. But then you realize a T-90 only really has about 22 rounds ready; and if you're assaulting a dug in infantry position like in this scenario; those 22 rounds of 125mm run out fast, especially if you're reserving ammunition for anti-tank work. By contrast, the BMP-3 has about 40 rounds of 100mm and 500 rounds of 30mm; meaning that the BMP-3 can "escort" the T-90, with the T-90s going ahead to take the hits the BMP-3 can't, while the BMP-3 peppers the enemy positions with 100mm HE-FRAG (it doesn't have to be super accurate, just enough to keep their heads down and inflict some casualties). Oh, and you also need to fire at the enemy, even if you only have a 5% or 7% chance of a hit in-game. |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
I've recently recalled the conflict in Georgia in 2008. I now believe that Gerogia initiated the hostilities thinking NATO would back her militarily; due in large part to the Bucharest Declaration issued by NATO in 2008.
Here is part 23 of that declaration: "We agreed today that these countries will become members of NATO." However, Ukraine has not made the Georgian mistake, although NATO is committed to add Ukraine to NATO. Ukraine's geography is most important as well as the flow of natural gas through Ukraine. I think Russia intends to bleed Ukraine's economy; while pressuring the Ukrainian elites to accept what amounts to an oligarchical goverance along the lines in Russia; where industries, products, and services are allocated among the elites. I do not think Russia wants to invade Ukraine. The US headed by Cruz and many other senators are threatening to replace the Nordstream II pipeline with US shipped natural gas. The US may have recheted up the tensions between Ukraine and Russia since 2014. In other words why now? Could the case be that Putin is reacting to US threats to slash Nordstream II? Ukraine has deployed the bulk of her fighting force, nearly 120,000 troops to Eastern Ukraine; and it should be noted that with the close proximity of large formations a spark causing hostilities could smolder on winds from the East or West of Luhansk and Donetsk. <b> |
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Interestingly, Russia crushed Georgia in March of 2008. Today, is the 11th of February. I know this scenario is a what/if, and we know MarkSheppard has given us thoughtful scenarios; please allow me to say, I can't see Russian Naval Infantry (marines) taking on Ukrainian army units; Marines are light forces with "beer and ammo" for maybe 72 hours max. I'd buy the marines pushing aside border guards and other militia volunteers to permit an unhampered and rapid Russian heavy units follow through; with the marines protecting the flanks and rear of a regular army advance. Thanks for sharing; and, thanks for patience. <b> |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
It was August 2008* when the Ossetian war happened.
*(officially on the 8th, which was also when the Bejing Olympics of 2008 started, although hostilities started since August 1) |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
Personally, I do not think there will be an invasion. This IMHO is the west looking for a way to distract people from the Pandemic and Putin is happy to stir the pot. This "build-up" is all about Ukraine possibly joining NATO which is about as popular in Russia as it would have been in the US 50 years ago if Mexico talked about joining Warsaw pact. Even the Ukrainian President says all this speculation is not helping.
To put that into perspective, if Ukraine joined NATO that would put the eastern border of a NATO nation less than 250 km from what was Stalingrad. Think about that. EDIT......... WELL, I GUESS I WAS WRONG ABOUT THE INVASION....... |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
I agree with DRG, this is just another smoke and mirrors game run by a clown who stole an election (not the real laughing stock hiding in the office). While I can a test to the reality of Covid, its not a natural flu like sickness at all, its a man made bio-weapon created by the Chinese from the pocket books of the likes of Gates and his frontman Fauci. If you think otherwise, go ask some folks in Australia or Canada how much their governments really care about their people. Those two countries alone have the closest thing to the Nazi jackboots on the ground in their Polizei force.
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Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
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I created this scenario based off a twitter thread that identified vehicles of the 155th Naval Infantry Brigade on trains: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1481968626701934592 T-80BV MT-LB BMP-3 Some further work identified the main OOB of the 155th NIB as being: 155th Separate Naval Infantry Brigade ---59th Separate Naval Infantry Battalion ---84th Naval Infantry Separate tank battalion -- 4 companies of tanks plus 1 or 2 tanks for BN HQ. ---263rd Separate Artillery Battery (6 x 2S9 Nona?) ---1484th Separate Communications Battalion A Naval Infantry Battalion is: HHC Supply/Medical/Maint/Comms units 3 x Naval Infantry Companies 1 x Mortar Platoon 1 x AT Platoon I didn't have precise numbers on how the 155th's 59th NIB was equipped, so I gave them 1 x BMP-3 Co and 2 x MT-LB Co; because even in 2022; Russia has only 700 x BMP-3 in service; and a single BMP-3 company has 13 of them; ergo, Russia can only deploy about 50 companies of BMP-3s. EDIT: Looking at Wiki, my guess was right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Naval_Infantry Quote:
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Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
Actually there IS a scenario (I wrote it).
Reference : https://forum.shrapnelgames.com/show...&postcount=120 It's called "Battle in East Ukraine" and is winnable by either side (although clearly the Ukrainians have a harder time of it). Let me know what you think, Mr. Bill |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
It is has been reported Russian assault ships are on station in the Black Sea; however, I did not observe a flight deck on the Kaliningrad amphibious assault ship. That leads me to believe the naval infantry does not have organic air assault capability as contrasted with an American USMC MEU. And, it reveals that naval infantry units conducts assualts amphibiously; without rotary or fixed-wing aircraft to transport, provide air strike or logistical support.
Therefore, I would find interesting to know the real capabilities of the naval infantry given she does not have dedicated air assets for transport, air support, and logistics. Furthermore, Russia has only I aircraft carrier, meaning time on station per air sortie maybe drastically reduced from air operations conducted from an amphibious assault ship; certainly, rotary operations maybe restricted outright. If my assessments are accurate, Russian air support would have to be based at the airfield in Crimea; too far for rotary support, and at a distance to severely restrict ordinance loads of strike aircraft. In my thinking the port of Odessa is the big prize to squeeze Ukraine economically while restricting her military logistical support. I say the siezing of the port of Odessa is within the core doctrine of naval infantry (or should be). The Russians must rely on coordinating support for naval infantry from the air force and possibly the army if my assessments are accurate. But, as I have said in an earlier post, I do not subscribe to a Russian invasion. IMHO, The political solution has the Minks Agreements of 2014 as a foundation. Now that I've mentioned the USMC, where's Suhiir? <br> |
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Given everything that has gone on since 26th May 2021 and that she had pre-existing health issues it doesn't look good |
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She slapped me around a few times in the forum, but she was always firm, fair, and one hell of a gal. <br> |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
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It's a given that MBT in particular is a game of "what if" battles. That is pretty much why SP2 was created and why we developed SPMBT
A few years back I created a "Goldap" map for SPWW2. Goldap was the first East Prussian city that was captured by the Soviets and over the course of late 1944 it changed hands a few times and is now part of Poland That map is also in MBT ( map 416 ) I *may* update it for MBT with the city expanded to its current size depending on time available but at the time I built it I put the city in the centre and filled in the terrain around it to the max sized map allowed. I did not realize until I was mostly done that in a modern Context the "northern" border of that map is almost exactly the border between Poland and the Russian Kaliningrad oblast. It couldn't be closer if I had planned it that way but I didn't. That's just the way it worked out . https://forum.shrapnelgames.com/atta...1&d=1645717024 |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
I have made a few fairly realistic maps of UA-RU border regions for a fictional MBT campaign, a "what if" invasion of Ukraine taking place in 2023. It was based on a much less ambitious Russian invasion than the real thing taking place now. Essentially I envisioned a single drive on Kyiv using brute force but with no fancy stuff like deep airborne operations and also a Russian efforts at avoiding massive destruction to Ukrainian infrastructure in the wider country, outside the combat zone...
The real deal seems to be a much more complex and brutal operation. Guess I'll have to convert them to winter maps now... Some images of this fictional setup below (i.e. NOT what is taking place in reality now). Maybe the maps can be used for something else? It's possible that many of these locations fell without much fighting. One of these maps is based on the approaches to Hluchiv along the E38 and the Kleven river crossing at Zarutske. There is footage of about 15 Russian T-72s being zapped along a road, claimed to have been killed in the Hluchiv region by Javelin ATGMs... https://64.media.tumblr.com/65ed4805...009a6d322d.png https://64.media.tumblr.com/7b6a9afe...31d4427ec1.png https://64.media.tumblr.com/9df4a933...cb17f14dc1.png https://64.media.tumblr.com/3a012953...fa3ae9799c.png https://64.media.tumblr.com/b7db30c5...1fa090fea7.png https://64.media.tumblr.com/6ef6b6d4...bcebc78e98.png |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
I've been away due to work (being so tired from one day that I went straight to sleep and slept through the opening of the war; and then being at work for two straight days due to an ice storm for the first two days of the war).
https://i.imgur.com/8m5IEhF.png Looks like the Russians/Belarusians used the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to pass through for their western pincer on Kiev. So far with this war we have:
Russian casualties claimed by the Ukrainians for the first 36 hours (I think) are: 100+ tanks 500+ "Armoured Combat Vehicles" 17+ aircraft (helos and jets) 3000~ troops. I would have downgraded the Ukrainian estimates to 1000~ killed; since after all, you can count burned out wrecks on the battlefield and be sure of vehicle losses; but human losses are hard. But after the Vasylkiv assault with two IL-76s shot down, I'm inclined now to increase it to 2000~ killed. |
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If you would like those maps included in the next update forward them to me by mid March I have added " Citizens Militia" units and formations to the Ukrainian OOB |
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Relevant to the conversation but slightly off topic ( but only a bit ) I wanted to take a look at the region between the Chernobyl exclusion zone and Kiev
This is the Pripyat east of Chernobyl https://www.venhola.com/maps/geo.php#30.40,51.21,0 Imagine navigating a boat through that..... https://forum.shrapnelgames.com/atta...1&d=1645896379 |
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Or make duplicates (summer and winter versions)? What map slot should I start with? |
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"spring/winterish" works for me as a lot of the terrain I added suits that type of map but you can do whatever you like and I will put them into the game
The next open slot is 443 I wish there was an easy way to turn an existing map to another season but there isn't ( we tried when we added "keep contours") |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
https://www.newsletter.co.uk/news/de...zookas-3587105
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Also, the Netherlands seems to be donating 400 PZF-3 launchers as of now (Germany has allowed them to pass through, a change of stance) Just added to the Ukrainian OOB basically - there will be a lot of changes in the UKR OOB, (including possible ending...) Every day is a new day and we can only guess how events will develop |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
The 141st Akhmad Kadyrov Special Motorized Regiment of Russia’s National Guard (Rosgvardia) is one of two "Putin's Chechens" units currently in/near Ukraine.
Current story (so far) is that the Russians sent it to Hostomel Airfield as part of the fighting on/near it; and (stories differ): 1.) Ukrainian SBU Alfa Group ambushed one of their columns. or 2.) Ukrainians called in artillery on one of their columns. Either way, the CO of the 141st -- Magomed Tushayev -- is now dead. This makes me wonder how badly that unit was mauled; and whether that tied into Putin's decision to call up more Chechen troops from Groznyy for the Ukrainian War. |
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Andy had already mentioned the Stingers to me but I had not put them in yet. Thanks for the reminder. Until we know different I will assume the AT weapons are of the same type the Netherland donated
According to Wiki ( which is a better source than it used to be...... Quote:
Depending on how long this lasts ( not long probably but hey.... I thought this wasn't going to happen...) this will turn into a weapons testing ground |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
If anyone finds any info on which version of the Pz3 the Germans sent let us know. The Multi Charge version is a significant upgrade over the base version
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(Edit: some sources say Grom MANPADS. There is no clear confirmation so far. Piorun is a development of Grom, also known as Grom-M) |
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Ghost_of_Kyiv
Helicopters during first battle of Hostomel airport and some aircrafts also Il-76 in 26 of Feb were lost thanks to Ukrainians Mig-29. There is now an urban legend created during Kyiv sige that this is an one Pilot who alredy shot down 6 aircrafts and many helicopters. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_of_Kyiv |
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The geopolitical landscape is shifting rapidly, and there are signs you might have to do another flag update this year (besides Afghanistan). Belarus may be undergoing a slow motion revolution. Background in a series of tweets: ================ https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/st...Sg687GfjA&s=19 Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya (@Tsihanouskaya) Lukashenka committed treason – he made our country a participant in the invasion of Ukraine. So I declared myself as the national leader of Belarus to protect the sovereignty & independence of our country, represent it in security negotiations & crisis management in the region. Basically, Tsikhanouskaya is the only person who challenged Luka in the 2020 elections and she was forced into exile in Eastern Europe (Poland/Balt States) as a result. =========== https://twitter.com/Den_2042/status/1497649869909118976 Belsat (quoting multiple sources): Belarusian troops expect to be deployed to fight in Ukraine in a few days. =========== https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...gTHYaH6Lg&s=19 Lukashenko confirms missile strikes have been launched from Belarus against Ukraine because "Kyiv deployed 3-4 missile divisions near our border". ============== What's happening today is a vote on the 2022 Belarusian Constitutional Referendum (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_B...nal_referendum) that Basically gives Lukashenko Immunity for acts he commits/committed as president of Belarus Changes Article 18 of the Belarusian constitution that says "the Republic of Belarus aims at making its territory a nuclear-free zone", enabling Russia to deploy its nuclear weapons on Belarusian territory. ============== https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw Belarusians chanting "No to war" outside one of polling stations in Minsk right now. Via @MotolkoHelp =========== https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/st...rc=twsrc%5Etfw Given the level of repression, the only possible for Belarusians to gather in protest against the invasion was to turn out to vote in the referendum at the same time all across the country – today at 2PM local time. It seems to have worked! Videos coming from all over the country ============== https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...rc=twsrc%5Etfw Lukashenka's flag was removed from the #Belarusian embassy in #Vilnius and replaced with the national white-pass-white flag and the #Ukrainian flag. It is reported that the national flag was also noticed at the Belarusian embassy in #Paris. ===================== We may be seeing a slow motion coup/revolution inside Belarus, provoked by Lukashenko's actions. Right now, I think it all depends on what Luka does in the next 24 hours. The previous SRBM and airstrikes he had the Belarussian Air Force launch against Ukraine can be walked back, with some difficulty, but committing ground forces to Ukraine kind of can't. |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
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That said this is reported to be a wrecked Russian MT-LBM and it isn't exactly what you would call a top tier combat vehicle ( unless someone thought this was going to be a.......“We have only to kick in the door, and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down.”...... exercise) https://i.imgur.com/DCyYjw4.png |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
EDIT: Better ( I ASSUME).....transcript
https://www.joeydevilla.com/2022/02/...krainian-soil/ Woman: Who are you? Soldier: We have exercises here. Please go this way. Woman: What kind of exercises? Are you Russian? Soldier: Yes. Woman: So what the **** are you doing here? Soldier: Right now, our discussion will lead to nothing. Woman: You’re occupants, you’re fascists! What the **** are you doing on our land with all these guns? Take these seeds [sunflower seeds — the sunflower is Ukraine’s national flower] so at least sunflowers will grow when you all lie down here. Soldier: Right now, our discussion will lead nowhere [clearly, they’ve been given talking points]. Let’s not escalate this situation. Please. Woman: What situation? Guys, guys. Put sunflower seeds in your pockets, please. You will lie down here with the seeds. You come to my land. Do you understand? You are occupiers. You are enemies. Soldier: Yes. Woman: And from this moment, you are cursed. I’m telling you. Soldier: Now listen to me — Woman: I’ve heard you. Soldier: Let’s not escalate the situation. Please go this way. Woman: How can it be further escalated? You ****ing came here uninvited. Pieces of ****. |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
Announcement on Swedish TV now by the prime minster; Sweden is to ship 5000 light anti tank weapons to Ukraine. These are not Rb 57 (NLAW) or Grg (Carl Gustaf) however but Pansarskott 86 (usually called AT-4 internationally).
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Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
Weapon 81 in the Swede OOB I believe?
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Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
We are adding these things in and it's a "good thing"(tm) that nations are helping out....... the problem is they will only get into use if this conflict drags out and the longer this drags on........ well it isn't good ( for anyone )
The Ukrainians needed these in their hands from the very start but who knows maybe they will get to where they are needed but thinking..... probably not. |
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Maybe a few OOB066 Weapon 107..., don't know. Finland announced it intends to hand over 1500 "single shot anti tank weapons" - I guess that means M72 LAW or APILAS. |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
We've put a few of the reported weapons in and built units to use them along with Citizen Militia units and a vehicle but for now that going to be it. To many variables and too much is happening too fast to try to keep up or we'll end up with an abbreviated version of the USA OOB when we had to take out all the "future weapons systems" that never happened and we ( I ) had to tear the OOB apart and rebuild it to reflect "reality".
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Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
I can understand that. I'm happy they get the stuff but OOB work is going to be major headache if Ukraine gets flooded with all kinds of kit.
Norway pledges 2000 M72 LAWs too. Not sure if it brings anything much different to the table compared to what is already in the OOB but the math is interesting. Say only one in four of these foreign supplied weapons hits a target that would still be a considerable number of damaged or killed vehicles... |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
Lot's of photos of wrecks but no way to confirm who's they are unless there are subtle hints I have not been able to decipher but there has been a cornucopia of high quality photos of T-72's published lately.... some working.. some never likely to again
AT4/Pansarskott 86 is just a more capable M72. If you had the choose one pick the AT4..... if all you have is an M72 it will do the job for most things you'd need it for IF it can get it to where it would do the most good |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
Even Mig-29 and Su-25 will be send to Ukraine :angel
https://twitter.com/verkhovna_rada/s...-slowacja.html https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...-jets-00012560 And about Swedish AT4 here what we have hope that they will include this funny fake IKEA style manuals https://i.redd.it/y3c0rm1z1jk81.jpg |
Re: Ukraine 2021(?)
As a tie in with the post I made the other day
The quality of the equipment seems really sub par and " well used" . LINK Recalling the comment made in the movie Kelly's Heros by Moriarty when they "acquired" the Tiger Quote:
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