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blazejos February 25th, 2022 01:51 PM

SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
We can start to thinking about third instalment of game in the series lets call this SPWWIII if after all of this people will still have computers and electricity and civilisation will exist meaby they will play such game. So how starts to describe all of that what happens on Ukraine now comes to my mind words of Pope Francis from 2014 "piecemeal World War III" https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29190890


So lets start far from Ukraine in Grozny 25.02.2022
Chechen dictator Kadyrov units goes today on front to Ukraine to help Russian army. They are called Praetorians of Putin.
https://twitter.com/cbatuhan36/statu...oORa0awc-zr3og
We can called this outscoring of military services:D
https://twitter.com/ButtersCol/statu...oORa0awc-zr3og
https://twitter.com/Yellow34950210/s...bKQDXSTI7mPTKw

How looks real aircraft attack on cars on roads from perspective of a driver this is midday 25.02.2022
https://twitter.com/iamrezya/status/...oORa0awc-zr3og

Here from Kamenec-Podolsky western Ukraine also 25 Feb how Police catch V-Column group in old Lada civilian car.
https://twitter.com/bodsadman/status...oORa0awc-zr3og

Strange markers put by V-column in various places
https://twitter.com/NPU_GOV_UA/statu...P4ouBCRDp88Ntg
also on roofs of buildings
https://twitter.com/762project/statu...oORa0awc-zr3og

Early morning 25 Feb after an air-raid in Kiev an apartment blocks
https://twitter.com/NPU_GOV_UA/statu...95291400601605

This looks like attack on marked hospital palpably a war crime
https://twitter.com/_G_derun/status/...oORa0awc-zr3og

Here from 24 Feb indiscriminate attack on civilian villas district of the city (probably Kiev) don't know but is possible that home was chosen by random and attack by MiG-29 with probably unguided S-5 rockets. If someone was in home nearby is already dead now. On this movie you can see how much for reaction/cover you have with modern jets attack!
https://twitter.com/eypakdm/status/1...oORa0awc-zr3og

24 Feb Snake Island on Black Sea all this Border Guards are already death now they chosen this fate instead of surrender this outpost.
https://twitter.com/AlexKhrebet/stat...sPS5rM6Jxi-Djg
And here their conversation with Russian warship before shelling (for me some sound similar last words of Emperor Guard commander on Waterloo)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/vi...g-killed-audio

blazejos February 26th, 2022 04:39 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Third day of the war during night like usually apartments block destroyed by glider bomb in Kyev. No one died because peoples were in bomb shelters instead in their apartments.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...uhVGauSC1wgFjw

If you are curious how looks like attack of this bomb here someone who was in bomb shelter left inside his home a internet camera and saw when bomb stuck his apartment live.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...uhVGauSC1wgFjw

Rescue action today morning 26.02.2022 (probably noone was inside during night)
https://twitter.com/LauraKwoczala/st...alny-w-kijowie

MarkSheppard February 26th, 2022 07:29 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
I've been away due to work (being so tired from one day that I went straight to sleep and slept through the opening of the war; and then being at work for two straight days due to an ice storm for the first two days of the war).

https://i.imgur.com/8m5IEhF.png

Looks like the Russians/Belarusians used the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone to pass through for their western pincer on Kiev.

So far with this war we have:
  • Battle of Chernobyl in the Exclusion Zone
  • Failed VDV air assault at Hostomel Airport -- VDV landed in helicopters and were wiped out after 8 hours.
  • Failed VDV airborne landings at Vasylkiv Airport, two IL-76s were shot down (claimed by US officials).

Russian casualties claimed by the Ukrainians for the first 36 hours (I think) are:

100+ tanks
500+ "Armoured Combat Vehicles"
17+ aircraft (helos and jets)
3000~ troops.

I would have downgraded the Ukrainian estimates to 1000~ killed; since after all, you can count burned out wrecks on the battlefield and be sure of vehicle losses; but human losses are hard.

But after the Vasylkiv assault with two IL-76s shot down, I'm inclined now to increase it to 2000~ killed.

blazejos February 26th, 2022 06:19 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Nice graphic of military situation for 26 of February 2022

https://kresy.pl/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/1-24.png

As for now Wikipedia is one of best sources about battles which are fought on Ukraine

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ion_of_Ukraine
And official Ukrainians comunicates about war and military equipment which they recive
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato

I also d'like to add info about other nations involved in this war

Belorusia
Dictator Lukaszenka denied any involment of Belorusia in this war but are some movies which shows that rockets are lanuched from Belorusians vilages against Ukraine. Secoundly On 24 February, State Border Guard Service of Ukraine reported about Russian troops trying to break through the Belarus-Ukraine border at Vilcha border crossing, and a helicopter without identification marks attacking a bridge near Slavutych. So that is confirmed belorusian involvment in this war
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belaru...ion_of_Ukraine

Chechen
They are on both sides so for them that is an civil war.
From one side are https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dzhokh...ayev_Battalion they fight already on Ukrainian side in battle of Kyiv https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyiv_offensive_(2022) and they fight Russia since first Chechen war in 1994. They support indenpendent Chechen Republic of Ichkeria emigree goverment in London. From the secound side are Kadyrovtsy who also fights against Russia in 1994 first chechen war but alies with them in 1999 since there Kadyrov father and now son is a sole dictator of Chechen Republic which is part of Russia Federal Republic.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kadyrovtsy

Georgian
Georgian Legion of volounters often veterans of Georgian-Russia war of 2008 fight on Ukrainian side since 2014 and also in this war in 2022.

Crimean Tatar
They have Crimean Tatar "Noman Çelebicihan Battalion" which fight on Ukraininan side since 2015 and support Ukrainian Crimea. Is also supported by Turkey. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noman_...ihan_Battalion. In Ukrainian war of 2022 they are part of Odessa defenders.

Moldova
They are not involveed now but their army is mobilised now because the have fear that their teritory will be used by Russians to agression on Ukraine. Since 1992 after https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_War there existing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria semi soviet state not recognised by anyone and now they may also sign indenpedece. In this part of Moldova stationed Russian troops which may be also used to attack on Odessa. So looks like Moldovians are traing to not allow using their teritory for invasion of Ukraine and secoundly not allow Transistria to declare indenpedence with help of Russia.

blazejos February 28th, 2022 09:43 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
And now map for 28 of February the frontline https://www.map.army/?ShareID=100914...pe=RO-uE2BzdFd

Wdll February 28th, 2022 09:51 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
I have to say I am disappointed. Glad, but disappointed the Russians suck so much in this war. Ukraine still has remnants of its already tiny airforce, artillery too and air defense. The Russians have supply issues and I am very very weirded out about some of their tactics.
I am glad they are not doing better and I hope so much that they fail completely.
Still, it looks like they have become kind of a joke. I mean, if not for their nuclear weapons I don't think they could successfully invade even a small to medium size country which has normal size armed forces.
As for tougher opponents...yeah.

Let's hope this ends soon and Putler one way or another gets out of the picture.

MarkSheppard February 28th, 2022 09:58 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
You can find battle locations using NASA fire sensing satellites

https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov...;@32.8,50.0,8z

Set your static background to Topographic and set your timeline to 7 days and you can find battles.

==================

KHARKOV last 7 days:

https://i.imgur.com/RzOhi3h.png

==================

KIEV last 24 hours:

https://i.imgur.com/Yxr3Edj.png

MarkSheppard February 28th, 2022 10:01 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
There are some issues with this.

1.) I don't know what criteria NASA uses to consider a FIRS "cell" on fire.

2.) Artillery/air strike generated fires may be more likely to trip FIRS than tank battles or burning AFV.

But, it's a good way to get "ground truth"; since where big fires are = lots of artillery = battle be there.

blazejos February 28th, 2022 10:56 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Manuals for Kyiv defenders from https://twitter.com/DefenceU

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMrEOfxX...g&name=360x360
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMrEIF5X...g&name=360x360
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMrELS6X...g&name=360x360
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMrES1hX...g&name=360x360

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMtLcumX...g&name=360x360
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMtLcvVX...g&name=360x360

And here identification of radio device from Russian military column destroyed in Charkiv yesterday you can buy this on Aliexpress :doh: !!!
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1498472478552776705

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMunvozV...jpg&name=small

jivemi March 1st, 2022 09:07 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Greetings fellow wargamers. At the risk of antagonizing anyone with a somewhat discordant point of view here is a cold-blooded, in-depth presentation---which considers things you're unlikely to see on Western media these days---of why Russia invaded Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE&t=4s

Aeraaa March 1st, 2022 11:46 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wdll (Post 851605)
I have to say I am disappointed. Glad, but disappointed the Russians suck so much in this war. Ukraine still has remnants of its already tiny airforce, artillery too and air defense. The Russians have supply issues and I am very very weirded out about some of their tactics.
I am glad they are not doing better and I hope so much that they fail completely.
Still, it looks like they have become kind of a joke. I mean, if not for their nuclear weapons I don't think they could successfully invade even a small to medium size country which has normal size armed forces.
As for tougher opponents...yeah.

Let's hope this ends soon and Putler one way or another gets out of the picture.


I have to say I strongly disagree with you Wdll. I don’t see anything that tells me that Russian offensive is stalled and that they’re about to lose. They are well on schedule and their setbacks are not catastrophic.
I think we are spoiled by US invasions with minimal losses that we lose the big picture. One, Ukraine is not Iraq and the force disparity is not as great as it was with USA vs. Iraq. Two, US operational tempo is slower than the Russian one. American way of war is to bomb and shell enemy forces for days, or even weeks before any ground operation begins. Russian ground operations began at day 1. Also, no US commander would think that an assault like the one in Hostomel airfield is a good idea. Reason for that is that it is too risky for the airborne troops participating. Russians do these stuff because they see the big picture: the operational level. If you accomplish objectives fast, then that more than justifies any tactical setbacks you’ve suffered along the way.
In addition to that, there’s nothing to suggest that they do not follow their own doctrine, which is more or less known to the west by now. CRPs/Forward detachments probe forward. If they find resistance, they try to find another route. Advance is swift and dangerous for supply trucks (hence the problems with logistics). The goal is to not get bogged down in urban fighting but keep moving in the Ukrainian interior lines, either isolating strongpoints or forcing the Ukrainians to use their reserves. When the latter are committed/ identified, then the Russian follow-up forces will get into the fray. So far we’ve seen T72B3s, BMP2s, MTLB and so on. These are fairly old equipment which begs the question where are the good stuff? Where are the T90s, BMP3s and so on? Well, these are waiting in Operational Maneuver Groups, waiting for the moment to finish the Ukrainians off.
Ukrainians have won the PR war, especially in the Western media, but this can lead us to have wrong assumptions about the reality on the ground. Posting a video of 3 Russian wrecks of the CRP is good for morale, but that’s about it. Not to mention the huge amount of fake stuff that is being posted everywhere.
I’m sorry if I sound pessimistic, I really hope the Ukrainians pull this off. But that does not change the fact that they are in a really tough spot. Could they win this? I mean, maybe. There are no sure things in war. Just as the Iraqis could beat the Americans theoretically. But in both cases, the odds were not in them.

DRG March 1st, 2022 12:02 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
All I can say is........yep.

There are many ways for this to go depending on random factors nobody could foresee but 200 Spartans went down in history for an against-all-odds defence against overwhelming odds that eventually overwhelmed them.

The Russians have not even begun to hit as hard as they are capable of which has many puzzled but it may be part of the plan......why use more force than needed when you have at your disposal WAY more force than could possibly be needed?

Here's an even more pessimistic prediction....... all those weapons being sent from the west will end up in Russian warehouses to be sold to whoever has the money to pay for them.

zovs66 March 1st, 2022 12:24 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
To give the Russians credit they have restrained themselves. This is a low intensity operation and I think the Russians are purposely keeping civilian casualties and property damage down by intent. I am sure if they wanted too, the Russians could have made ruin piles of those cities with several hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Personally I think the West in particular the jackass Biden administration is responsible for pushing Russia to war. I think that the Canadian Dictator is a puppet (as well as Biden the jack ***) and the Democrats want a war with Russia because they are blood thirsty power mongers. The Left Wing 'State sponsored' media is fueling this stuff.

DRG March 1st, 2022 12:50 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Like most things......" it's complicated". Bidens son and perhaps Joe as well have deep business interests in Ukraine that could all evaporate.

Plus ( IMHO ) there is not a lot of "quality" leadership in the "Woke West". Zelensky looks positively Churchillian in comparison and he's an actor and comedian best known for playing the part of President! The clown running things here taught English and Drama when he wasn't going to parties in blackface and living well off a trust fun and now he and his deputy PM give pronouncements...on policy...in short sentences... like they are... speaking to... a class... of kindergarden... children.... who are ...a little ..."slow".:mad:

A comment passed on to me from Andy who picked it up online

Quote:

The thing we should be worried about is the fact that Russia has been building hypersonic missiles and the US has been building gender-neutral bathrooms"!
....a simplification but still....... The ONLY innocents in all this are the children being killed (as always)

blazejos March 1st, 2022 03:34 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Look at that are instruction for parents of that childerns were are safe spots in apartment building home to sleep. Secound tiny wall my save life during fights inside city. source https://twitter.com/rnbo_gov_ua/stat...59462109929479

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMxO1fEX...g&name=900x900

jivemi March 1st, 2022 08:12 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DRG (Post 851616)
Like most things......" it's complicated". Bidens son and perhaps Joe as well have deep business interests in Ukraine that could all evaporate.

Plus ( IMHO ) there is not a lot of "quality" leadership in the "Woke West". Zelensky looks positively Churchillian in comparison and he's an actor and comedian best known for playing the part of President! The clown running things here taught English and Drama when he wasn't going to parties in blackface and living well off a trust fun and now he and his deputy PM give pronouncements...on policy...in short sentences... like they are... speaking to... a class... of kindergarden... children.... who are ...a little ..."slow".:mad:

A comment passed on to me from Andy who picked it up online

Quote:

The thing we should be worried about is the fact that Russia has been building hypersonic missiles and the US has been building gender-neutral bathrooms"!
....a simplification but still....... The ONLY innocents in all this are the children being killed (as always)

Indeed. IMHO Putin has read Western weakness and degeneration to a T. They say he's crazy but it may be more a projection of Western Woke insanity onto a hardball leader of a country which still respects its heritage and honors its heroes, instead of trashing them in a relentless hunt for "racist, sexist, homophobic" postmodern witches. For some of us conservatives the tyranny of Moscow looks more amenable than the tyranny of Woke. North America as we knew it hardly exists anymore. A sad commentary on current affairs.

BTW getting back to military concerns has anyone heard anything about relatively warm weather in Ukraine turning offroad terrain to mud, thus restricting most Russian vehicles to paved roads? Despite this (if true) a 40-mile-long Russian armored convoy seems to have proceeded practically unscathed towards Kiev. Whatever happens one hopes this situation ends with minimal loss of civilian life and destruction.

DRG March 1st, 2022 11:01 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jivemi (Post 851611)
Greetings fellow wargamers. At the risk of antagonizing anyone with a somewhat discordant point of view here is a cold-blooded, in-depth presentation---which considers things you're unlikely to see on Western media these days---of why Russia invaded Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If61baWF4GE&t=4s


I HIGHLY recommend watching this

Thanks Jon

blazejos March 2nd, 2022 03:41 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Something also happens in Russia https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...aina-sie-broni too this is info about childern's which takes part in Russian protests probably together with their parents and now when parents will go to the work camp? (who now meaby they will see a white Bear's from window of special orphanage) :(

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/sta...JOkx19-ZxM_o0Q
https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova?r...aina-sie-broni

BTW. That must be very brave when you have around 10 years

Update in case of Belorusians
This is an info about Belorusians on Ukrainian side and their mesage to Lukaszenko Army https://twitter.com/HannaLiubakova/s...q5N6pdCuCVkO5g

blazejos March 3rd, 2022 06:05 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Official Ukrainian statement that they start to repair captured equipment from battlefields.

This is the SBRM "Tiger". Almost new, low mileage, engine, box and running goals. There are traces of burning and small residues of organic.
The car will serve Ukraine well.;)

https://scontent.fpoz4-1.fna.fbcdn.n...UQ&oe=6225A860

So we can assume that during this war on Ukrainian side captured vehicles and tanks even if are a little bit "scratched" can go back to the front against former owners by technical cannibalism simple they build one from two. Probably the same happens with vehicles stolen by farmers :confused:

On Russian side we heard in first days that they used captured vehicles to equipping V-column in Ukrainians uniforms which rushed inside Kyev city under false flag.

25 February Oblon district
https://twitter.com/i/status/1497123672196276229

https://ocdn.eu/pulscms-transforms/1...M0B2YKhMAWhMQE

Wdll March 3rd, 2022 08:14 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Aeraaa (Post 851612)
Quote:

Originally Posted by Wdll (Post 851605)
I have to say I am disappointed. Glad, but disappointed the Russians suck so much in this war. Ukraine still has remnants of its already tiny airforce, artillery too and air defense. The Russians have supply issues and I am very very weirded out about some of their tactics.
I am glad they are not doing better and I hope so much that they fail completely.
Still, it looks like they have become kind of a joke. I mean, if not for their nuclear weapons I don't think they could successfully invade even a small to medium size country which has normal size armed forces.
As for tougher opponents...yeah.

Let's hope this ends soon and Putler one way or another gets out of the picture.


I have to say I strongly disagree with you Wdll. I don’t see anything that tells me that Russian offensive is stalled and that they’re about to lose. They are well on schedule and their setbacks are not catastrophic.
I think we are spoiled by US invasions with minimal losses that we lose the big picture. One, Ukraine is not Iraq and the force disparity is not as great as it was with USA vs. Iraq. Two, US operational tempo is slower than the Russian one. American way of war is to bomb and shell enemy forces for days, or even weeks before any ground operation begins. Russian ground operations began at day 1. Also, no US commander would think that an assault like the one in Hostomel airfield is a good idea. Reason for that is that it is too risky for the airborne troops participating. Russians do these stuff because they see the big picture: the operational level. If you accomplish objectives fast, then that more than justifies any tactical setbacks you’ve suffered along the way.
In addition to that, there’s nothing to suggest that they do not follow their own doctrine, which is more or less known to the west by now. CRPs/Forward detachments probe forward. If they find resistance, they try to find another route. Advance is swift and dangerous for supply trucks (hence the problems with logistics). The goal is to not get bogged down in urban fighting but keep moving in the Ukrainian interior lines, either isolating strongpoints or forcing the Ukrainians to use their reserves. When the latter are committed/ identified, then the Russian follow-up forces will get into the fray. So far we’ve seen T72B3s, BMP2s, MTLB and so on. These are fairly old equipment which begs the question where are the good stuff? Where are the T90s, BMP3s and so on? Well, these are waiting in Operational Maneuver Groups, waiting for the moment to finish the Ukrainians off.
Ukrainians have won the PR war, especially in the Western media, but this can lead us to have wrong assumptions about the reality on the ground. Posting a video of 3 Russian wrecks of the CRP is good for morale, but that’s about it. Not to mention the huge amount of fake stuff that is being posted everywhere.
I’m sorry if I sound pessimistic, I really hope the Ukrainians pull this off. But that does not change the fact that they are in a really tough spot. Could they win this? I mean, maybe. There are no sure things in war. Just as the Iraqis could beat the Americans theoretically. But in both cases, the odds were not in them.

Am I missing something? When did I say the Russians are going to lose?
I said I hope they are going to lose. Unfortunately for my bank account, what I wish for and what I get is not the same thing.

I am neither really optimistic or pessimistic about this war, having in mind that I do want Ukraine to not lose.
I do believe the game is not lost, as long as the people of Ukraine keep on fighting even if Russia manages to capture all major cities. Russia doesn't have the army, the economy or the stomach for a prolonged war of attrition against a country and people as large as Ukraine.
Russia still has the advantage, but as far as I am concerned it is not a done deal.

And I know most people would call me crazy about this, but I strongly am in favor of military intervention from NATO. IF Russia wins and wins relatively soon, it will not only have another 40 or so million people under their boots, Russia will not stop knowing the West is not willing to actively stop them. They will continue. Perhaps Moldavia, perhaps Georgia or more...optimistic.
Russia will not use nuclear weapons in the case of NATO intervention for Ukraine.

Putler and Co are not crazy, they act crazy because they know it sells.

zovs66 March 4th, 2022 06:38 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
I am strongly in favor of not getting NATO involved it’s none of there business and would only escalate things much worse than it already is.

DRG March 4th, 2022 06:47 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Agreed but they are already hip-deep in this publically sending arms to Ukraine. The whole thing is a mess but totally flips what must have been seen to the Russians as unacceptable that Ukraine might join the EU which would be the stepping stone to NATO and now potentially puts Russia's armed forces on the border with the EU.

jivemi March 4th, 2022 11:29 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DRG (Post 851676)
Agreed but they are already hip-deep in this publically sending arms to Ukraine. The whole thing is a mess but totally flips what must have been seen to the Russians as unacceptable that Ukraine might join the EU which would be the stepping stone to NATO and now potentially puts Russia's armed forces on the border with the EU.

Latvia and Estonia already border Russia directly. Poland and Lithuania border it sort of indirectly with Kaliningrad (separated from Russia like Alaska and Hawaii are from US and Cabinda from Angola). Main differences are eastern Ukraine used to be part of Russian Empire as well as Soviet Union and Kievan Rus is claimed by Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as their cultural ancestor.

My guess is Russia will gobble eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River while installing a Russian puppet in Kiev and western Ukraine. NATO will not intervene; now Ukrainian President calls the West "weak and insecure." Which IMHO describes Zelensky himself. He deliberately provoked Russia by publicly expressing a desire to join NATO, thinking it would bail him out. All Ukraine suffers for his ill-advised gamble.

Wdll March 5th, 2022 05:09 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by jivemi (Post 851682)
Quote:

Originally Posted by DRG (Post 851676)
Agreed but they are already hip-deep in this publically sending arms to Ukraine. The whole thing is a mess but totally flips what must have been seen to the Russians as unacceptable that Ukraine might join the EU which would be the stepping stone to NATO and now potentially puts Russia's armed forces on the border with the EU.

Latvia and Estonia already border Russia directly. Poland and Lithuania border it sort of indirectly with Kaliningrad (separated from Russia like Alaska and Hawaii are from US and Cabinda from Angola). Main differences are eastern Ukraine used to be part of Russian Empire as well Soviet Union and Kievan Rus is claimed by Russia, Belarus and Ukraine as their cultural ancestor.

My guess is Russia will gobble eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River while installing a Russian puppet in Kiev and western Ukraine. NATO will not intervene; now Ukrainian President calls the West "weak and insecure." Which IMHO describes Zelensky himself. He deliberately provoked Russia by publicly expressing a desire to join NATO, thinking it would bail him out. All Ukraine suffers for his ill-advised gamble.


That's like blaming a rape victim for their clothes.
Disgusting.

That's it, keep finding excuses to support or ignore Putin. Because if one thing is for certain is that appeasement works.
If Putin succeeds, let's all wait and see who the next target will be, directly (Putin), or indirectly (inspired by Putin).

Let's hope decades later people won't be wondering how the West didn't see this coming, how and why they didn't intervene when there was still time.

I will tell you one thing though, it certainly has given me a new way of looking at the appeasement of Hitler.

It will also be interesting to see how the proliferation of nuclear weapons will proceed.

Meh.

jivemi March 5th, 2022 07:49 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
He asked for it. Whatever an echo-chamber West says it's "weak and insecure" as a flummoxed Zelensky complained. Taking out Putin will not change the fact that Russia will not tolerate Ukraine as a NATO member. Neither will feel-good virtue-signaling. Any Western intervention now will risk WW III. Period.

Incidentally how many countries not remotely on USA's border have been invaded or intervened in during the past half century with perfect impunity? A training film from the 60's informed us "Joe Trainees" that America was justified in its global projection. "Not 'might makes right' quoth the narrator, 'power RESERVES the right.'" And so it goes. Welcome to the human condition.

DRG March 5th, 2022 08:56 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
As I have said before "It's complicated". That's the reason there are differing POV as above

The ONLY innocents are the children and there are false narratives being spread on both sides but it does appear that a Zelensky leaning Ukraine toward the EU and perhaps as a "future" NATO member is viewed in Russia no differently than Russian missiles in Cuba were viewed by the US nearly 60 years ago.

i.e. "intolerable"

That would, as I have already stated in another post, put a NATO nation border less than 300 km from the Volga. If I were Russian I would be a little more than just "concerned" about that.

DRG March 5th, 2022 09:30 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
A continuance of above .. perhaps a reminder...why we are at where we are at today

These are all the nations that have joined NATO in the past 23 years ( I think I have them all )

Hungary (1999)
Czech Republic (1999)
Poland (1999)
Estonia (2004)
Latvia (2004)
Lithuania (2004)

Slovakia (2004)
Romania (2004)
Slovenia (2004)
Bulgaria (2004)
Albania (2009)

Montenegro (2017)
North Macedonia (2020)

The ones in dark red were all Warsaw pact members or part of the Soviet Union and the first WP member state to "Join" NATO was "East" Germany when it and "West" Germany rejoined in 1990 and The Warsaw Pact dissolved a year later


Every one but Russia are now NATO nations.

Wdll March 5th, 2022 12:17 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DRG (Post 851687)
A continuance of above .. perhaps a reminder...why we are at where we are at today

These are all the nations that have joined NATO in the past 23 years ( I think I have them all )

Hungary (1999)
Czech Republic (1999)
Poland (1999)
Estonia (2004)
Latvia (2004)
Lithuania (2004)

Slovakia (2004)
Romania (2004)
Slovenia (2004)
Bulgaria (2004)
Albania (2009)

Montenegro (2017)
North Macedonia (2020)

The ones in dark red were all Warsaw pact members or part of the Soviet Union and the first WP member state to "Join" NATO was "East" Germany when it and "West" Germany rejoined in 1990 and The Warsaw Pact dissolved a year later


Every one but Russia are now NATO nations.


Yugoslavia was never a part of WP. Albania left WP in the 60s.
How many of the Warsaw Pact members willingly joined WP and how many had no choice?
From all the former Warsaw Pact members who joined NATO, how many of them did it on their own because of how much they were worried/hated USSR/Russia?

NATO was always a defensive organization, still is (as long as it's not about Turkey threatening Greece) and the countries mentioned above all despised the USSR/Russia and yes the WP.

If NATO approached countries and forced them to join NATO yes that would be an issue, but that's not what happened.

Regardless, nothing is actually relevant with the current invasion and war of Ukraine. Not WP, not Cuba, not Antarctica. It's just an excuse as clearly was shown with the 8000 word speech given by Putin about the invasion when NOT ONCE was NATO mentioned. Instead he tried and still tries to ignore the mere existence of a country of 40 million because he wants to swallow it into Russia.

I don't know how some people find excuses for this war. Disgusting.

DRG March 5th, 2022 01:19 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
A west leaning Ukraine is obviously and geographically seen as a threat to Russia by the Russians.

There are a number of ways to defuse conflict and threats that do not involve armed force. Putin choose to ignore those alternatives and go straight to war which puts this all on him and his advisors.

The "potential threat" does not justify the actions that have been taken which among other things is a total violation of the Budapest Memorandum to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine when Ukraine transferred its inherited Soviet nuclear weapons to Russia for decommissioning.

However, the threat that a potential NATO Ukraine would appear to be in Russia should not be ignored when pointing fingers. It is not an excuse for the war though it appears to be a factor that is being ignored as it seems to be at least one of the reasons we are in this mess

Karagin March 5th, 2022 02:20 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by DRG (Post 851689)
A west leaning Ukraine is obviously and geographically seen as a threat to Russia by the Russians.

No different than the US seeing any country in Central or South America leading towards the East (aka Russia/China) as a threat...been that way since the 60s to the current day.

DRG March 5th, 2022 03:31 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by Karagin (Post 851693)
Quote:

Originally Posted by DRG (Post 851689)
A west leaning Ukraine is obviously and geographically seen as a threat to Russia by the Russians.

No different than the US seeing any country in Central or South America leading towards the East (aka Russia/China) as a threat...been that way since the 60s to the current day.

.......and that will never likely ever change. At least not in the foreseeable future

blazejos March 5th, 2022 07:14 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
I understand your explanation about politics in that sense that Soviet Union -> Russia during last 40/30 years lost their area of influence and that is why Russia (Putin as someone like Tsar) try to reverse rebuild that sphere. But if we talking about that issue roots are far away in history predating even Soviet Union and communism ideology inside old tsarist Russia. In last 500 years Russia build whole ideology concept of Russkiy Mir https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_world. Problem is that many part's of today area which Russians consider as their own civilisation in Eastern Europe belongs in that time not to Russia but to Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth which was strange unions of today modern nations Polish, Lithuanians, Belarusians, Ukrainians, Latvian, Moldavian, Estonian. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polish...n_Commonwealth. Why this country was strange for its times because when in Europe rules absolute Kings. This country by it's citizens was called Rzeczpospolita (Most Serene Republic). In that country King was elected like president in modern democracies by around 10% of whole population by szlachta (Nobleman). And during his Regin was dependant in his decisions from Sejm (parliament). Many peoples who lived there during this 300 hundred years developed (quite modern for its times) concept of "Złota wolność" Golden Liberty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Liberty i some way similar to modern democracy modern concept of citizens rights. Because this Republican system country was finally not resistant to political corruption by external powers this country fall divided by the empires Prussia, Austria, Russia in 18th century but before final collapse created constitution very modern for its time which granted citizens rights and freedom Constitution of 3 May 1791 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consti..._of_3_May_1791. So after that in XIX century the myth of modern democracy defeated by absolutist King, Tsar and Emperor was still living. In XX century Totalitarian states again rules in that area and peoples told stories about Democracy, Freedom and Prosperity in good old times when none heard about such concepts in Western Europe and USA even not existed. So finally this spirit of Old Most Serene Republic is responsible of falling of communism in Eastern Europe and I think that this yearning for freedom and Democracy now is responsible for Ukrainians morale. They simple desire to build normal modern country and don't want belongs to Russkiy Mir anymore.

Beautifully song about Commonwealth Republic by Mila Kiriewska in Belorusian
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i--bB93hKKE

"Gaude, Mater Polonia" — Anthem of Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IVV0ofJR6l8

Oi Šermukšnio - Lithuanian song about Husaria most famous soldiers of Commonwealth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gSsoAvLzz1s

DRG March 5th, 2022 08:07 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Yes, I agree. Absolutely.

It does not change the fact the Russians have obviously not given up on Russkiy Mir and that (partially) explains why the situation has developed as it has.

It points out, as I have said and you supported in your comments, that IT'S COMPLICATED and the nuances of the situation are not fully understood outside of Eastern Europe

How can Russian think that way some may say

How can it not given its history

Does it excuse the invasion?

NO

Does it at least partially explain WHY it happened?

Yes.

Understanding even a little bit as to why this happened does not excuse the invasion or make excuses for it but it leads to understanding why nations/ leaders do what they do.

Understanding how we got to where we are DOES NOT equal Condoning

blazejos March 5th, 2022 09:44 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Meaby also that song explain why we are on brink of WWIII now. Is from 2018 and peoples said that Putin reaction to that song was quite positive even if that was an pastiche for EuroVision 2018. But now is not funny now is realistic. Also some people said that this song better explain that's all than long documentaries.

Vladimir Putin - Putin, Putout https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t-wFKNy0MZQ

best verse "Niet I won't stop until I wiiiiiiiiiin"

MarkSheppard March 6th, 2022 08:09 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
https://i.imgur.com/6HPNlOR.jpg

Threw it into my OCR program, which since it was made in Moscow, Russia; can recognize Belarusian:

Apologies if my OCR ****ed up, I'm working on a poor quality image tilted:

Quote:

МНІСГЭРСТВ,\ ЛБЛРОНЫ РЭСПУБЛІКІ БЕЛАРУСЬ
МКННСТЕРСТВО ОБОРОНЫ РЕСПУБЛНКН БЕЛАРУСЬ
гМннск
Уважасмый Вмктор Гсннадьсвнч!
В нсполнсннс Вашсго прнказа относнтсльно формнровання ударных батальонных групп вынужден доложнть слсдуюшее: в связн с массовым отказом прнннмать участнс в босвых дсйствнях лкчного состава воннскмх частсй, которыс должны былм быть задсйствованы для укомплсктовання вышсуказанных батальонных групп, у Вооруженных снл Бсларусн нет возможностм укомплсктовать нн одну батальонную группу.
Проведсннс разьясннтельных работ с командмрамм воннскмх частей не дало результата. Пмею смелость предположнть, что провсдснме замсны команднров данных воннсквх частсй, которые нс смоглн органнзовать формнрованме групп на местах, нс даст нужного нам рсзультатз.
В внду вышеужазанного прошу Вашсго решсння относнгельно прннятня чосй отставкл.

Начальннк Гснсралыіого нігаба - Лсрвый замсстнтсль Мнннстра обороны Рсспублмкн Бсларусь генсрал-майор /jA-e
Гулевнч В.В.
Google translate gives me:

Quote:

MNISGERSTV, LBLRONS OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

MINISTRY OF DEFENSE OF THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS

gmnsk

Dear Vmktor Gsnnadisvnch!

In the absence of your order regarding the formation of shock battalion groups, I have to report the following: in connection with the massive refusal to take part in the military operations of the military personnel of the military units, which should have been assigned to equip the above battalion groups, the Armed Snl Blarusn does not have the ability to .

Carrying out explanatory work with the commanders of the military units did not give any result. I have the audacity to assume that the military data commanders of the military units, who were not able to organize the formation of teams in the field, will not give us the result we need.

In view of the above, I ask for your decision regarding your resignation.

Chief of the Gsnsralyiogo nigaba - First Deputy of the Ministry of Defense of the Rsspublmkn Blarus General Major

Gulevnch V.V.

Karagin March 6th, 2022 12:07 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Something I have noticed in the game, and it could be how I fight the battles, but most of the time the Western vs Russia fights are either Draws or Marginal victories. Mostly draws though. Does this reflect reality? Based on what we have seen in Ukraine, the Russians aren't rushing in with blitzkrieg style pincher movements or direct drives on anyone one target, it's more akin to how the battles and fighting happened in the 1700s-1800s, move to engagement and then a set pace fight, break off and try again.


Now given that while I was in the military, the focus went from peer vs peer or near-peer to counterinsurgency fighting. Then it swung back to the former. Starting in 2016 all things retro aka older ideas of organization and fighting tactics were reintroduced in the Army. I joked then and now, that Retro is New Again.

I wonder if that is what we are seeing across the whole world, older ideas given new life and light, regardless of what we expect to happen?

MarkSheppard March 6th, 2022 07:33 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
You've all heard about the Russians cutting their internet off from the world?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500553480548892679

Quote:

No later than March 11, all servers and domains must be transferred to the #Russian zone. In addition, detailed data on the network infrastructure of the sites is being collected.
I'm just wondering if this is a precursor to an opening cyberattack on the West? Remember that the Russians view the sanctions on them as an act of war.

Everyone might be best served by disconnecting their main PC with irreplaceable stuff on it from the internet; and using disposable PCs (laptops) or phones to do internet stuff.

Karagin March 6th, 2022 08:06 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by MarkSheppard (Post 851714)
You've all heard about the Russians cutting their internet off from the world?

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1500553480548892679

Quote:

No later than March 11, all servers and domains must be transferred to the #Russian zone. In addition, detailed data on the network infrastructure of the sites is being collected.
I'm just wondering if this is a precursor to an opening cyberattack on the West? Remember that the Russians view the sanctions on them as an act of war.

Everyone might be best served by disconnecting their main PC with irreplaceable stuff on it from the internet; and using disposable PCs (laptops) or phones to do internet stuff.

Given the number of computer issues I have had over the last three years, I have been backing up stuff monthly. Three different externals just in case kind of thing.

jivemi March 6th, 2022 08:36 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
It seems that Russian forces have been dogged by a host of factors which prevent them from ending this war quickly. These include the "rasputitsa," or muddy season, which restricts practically all vehicles to roads; low morale and poor training among some of their troops; poor planning and logistics; unexpected resistance from both Ukrainian soldiers and civilians; and more. Here's a viddy which enumerates these and provides a link to another site which details vehicular and air losses on both sides: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVD-nBvSBkw

DRG March 6th, 2022 09:06 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
What caught my eye in that video was the shots of Helicopters dropping paras.

blazejos March 20th, 2022 03:55 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
For all actually map of front-line Ukraine 20th March

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/st...2Ft6rYnP-Q7%2F

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOUICh9W...jpg&name=small

And here wreckage of An-225 Miryja
https://twitter.com/i/status/1499640900020051969

How Stugna-P ATGM view his target
https://twitter.com/i/status/1505616311472304132

blazejos March 20th, 2022 06:05 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Question about Belarusian involvement in war is raising again.
From one side Łukaszenka 2x times in this 25 days declared that Belorussia will join Russians in "special operation" but two times that didn't happens some sources claim that army said "no" ordinary soldiers but also some commanders. Today third time Belarusian army will be involved or that is "maskirovka" who now here today video with Belarusian tanks marked with red square in Slonim transported somewhere?
https://twitter.com/i/status/1505628126449221636

Or what is also possible his regime is now only because Russian bayonets? There is some information how ordinary Belarusians "sabotage" military operation on Belarusians State Railways https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russ.../31761964.html

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOS3vJXW...jpg&name=small

Here Ukrainian's women's from army calls to Belarusians [English subtitles]
https://twitter.com/ArmedForcesUkr/s...2FVgMBP31z-%2F

Here statement from Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya [English]
https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/st...2FRL7q1GusV%2F

And here video of Belarusian soldiers related to opposition who fight on Ukrainian side in Kiev defence (direct relation to 1863 January Upraising in whole ex Rzeczpospolita against tsarist Russia on photo)
https://twitter.com/i/status/1501571907296104456

From Russian side they plan to send on front boys as young as 16-18y from YunArmiya (military supported scouts organisation with children from 8 to 18)
https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/s...2FUvCoh74eT%2F

Here their official uniforms
https://cdn-legacy.defence24.pl/defe...myuniform2.jpg

blazejos March 21st, 2022 05:17 AM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Here KalinowskiForum
where public and live in [English] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifvikmxPXHo today 21 of March opposition is discussing about situation in Belarus and how change their country into democracy.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FOWYZX0W...jpg&name=small

Here you can see a glimpse into old Rzeczpospolita spirit. Belarusians opposition leaders commemorate old hero of 1863 January Upraising Kastus Kalinouski in Vilnus consider a hero by Belarusian, Lithuanian, Polish.
https://twitter.com/Tsihanouskaya/st...86326837972993

DRG March 21st, 2022 05:19 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Something perhaps of interest to some of you

https://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&...armies&f=false

blazejos April 12th, 2022 08:28 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Just d'like to add that also some Russians are against war and also similarly to emigre Chechens and Belarusian opposition created their own unit "Freedom of Russia" Legion from POW who voluntary join their captors side.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BJ61bjLhhww

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%22Fre...ssia%22_Legion

They use flag which is related to old Novgorod Republic https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novgorod_Republic

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...022%29.svg.png

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White-blue-white_flag

blazejos August 5th, 2022 03:32 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Probably that will be main news in not so long time


North Korea is planing to send 100 000 "volunteers" to Donbas Ukraine

Official on Russian TV that this proposition is considered by Russia
https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/russia...100000-troops/

that comes to my mind Supreme Leader which said "Uncle Vova, we're with you!" :sick:
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/s...03842889932801

https://cdn.theatlantic.com/thumbor/...1/original.jpg

blazejos April 16th, 2023 07:29 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Song which is very popular in Poland since the begining of full scale war in Ukraine: Give Ukraine A Helping Hand

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rGT9bg2hBkc

In Poland also 13th commemorations Smolensk air disaster were today
https://tvpworld.com/69221113/commem...ome-to-a-close

georgesedlak April 26th, 2023 03:35 PM

Re: SPWWIII next edition of games series?
 
Good video, found out some new things on this sometimes confused conflict. As for Moscow knowing that it would loose an all out war with NATO. I think Napoleon, Hitler, Charles XII, and a host of others might disagree with you, cheers.


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