Doing the math
 

Hi guys;

I am playing an opponent who:
-has battleships
-ECM3
-stealth armor3
-scattering armor3
-racial defensive characteristics of at least 120% and probably 125%
-fleet experience 120%
-ship experience 120%

I have battlecruisers with
-Sensors3
-aggressive racial trait of only 100%
-ship experience 120%
-fleet experience 120%

Doing the initial math...

ECM3...........................+60%
Steath Armor3..................+15%
Scattering Armor3..............+15%
Ship experience................+20%
Fleet experience...............+20%
Defensiveness trait............+25%
Total.........................+155%

Combat sensors3.................65%
Ship Experience.................20%
Fleet Experience................20%
Total..........................105%

Doing the final math with a 100% base chance to hit (100-155+105) means I should have a 50% chance of hitting him at point blank range (the adjacent sector to his).

Yet my tests show I am hitting his ships at far less than 50% of the time.

It could be that I am making some assumptions which are wrong in that I am assuming:
1) The base chance to hit is 100% before calculating in any adjustments.
2) A ship in the adjacent sector does not suffer from a 10% penalty. (10% for each sector from the defender).

Guys, have any clues on this? http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/confused.gif

[ May 18, 2003, 18:03: Message edited by: tbontob ]

Re: Doing the math
 

One square away is another -10 penalty to hit.

Does he have any racial technology areas?

What are your and their Culture types?

Is it possible his ships/fleets have more combat experience after they were trained to 20?

PvK

Re: Doing the math
 

Thanks PvK.

Wondered about that one sector. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

So realistically, where there are no adjustments, the best one can hope for is a 90% chance as it is impossible to be in the same combat sector.

But that still doesn't account for the discrepancy as I am hitting less than a third of the time...probably even less than a quarter.

We are both scientists and he is Deeply Religious which shouldn't affect it.

In the test, I set the Fleet/Ship Experience at 20%.

EDIT: We are both using Shield Depleters and Anti-Proton Beams.

[ May 18, 2003, 20:31: Message edited by: tbontob ]

Re: Doing the math
 

What percentage of the time are you hitting?

Re: Doing the math
 

Less than a third.

Probably 15% to 20%.

Re: Doing the math
 

"So realistically, where there are no adjustments, the best one can hope for is a 90% chance as it is impossible to be in the same combat sector."

If he has ECM and you have sensors of the same level, the best you can hope for is 95%. If he has stealth/scattering, the best you can hope for is 65%.

This presumes racial and ship experience are the same, -and- that you aren't using Incinerator Beams (10% bonus) or Wave-Motion Guns (30% bonus)

Re: Doing the math
 

Ohhhh !
That guy must be really naughty.

http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Re: Doing the math
 

Forgive my total newbiness shining here http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

With some many spending in components which add to + attack roll, just to be able to get -50% malus to the to hit, why not reverting to missiles and fighters equipped with torpedoes?

Also, does ramming has a chance of missing if you get into his square? if not drones should be nasty with their to hit malus and good staying power?

I suppose the best to do is having the 3 kinds of weapons, to saturate his PD (which he has perhaps not in number btw).

Re: Doing the math
 

Yes, missiles never miss and fighters have large aditional attack and defense bonuses but they are very vulnerable to point defense cannons, often getting destroyed before they can hit even once.

Re: Doing the math
 

Unfortunately, PDC almost never misses (+70 to hit http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif ) and does huge amounts of damage (something like 3.5 dmg/kT/turn), and so just a few per BB can nullify your fighter/missile/drone strategy fairly easy. And, 1 BB is a lot cheaper to build (taking much much less time) than 1 carrier filled with fighters, and even cheaper than a drone carrier filled with drones.

1 SYS and some repair ships can allow you to add a few extra PDCs to all your ships out in deep space in a short amount of time (1 turn). So, as soon as your enemy fights some missile/fighter/drone fleets, he can (if he is prepared) react immediately and neutralize your forces.

[ May 19, 2003, 01:10: Message edited by: Imperator Fyron ]

Re: Doing the math
 

Sorry to wade in here since I'm not so up on this stuff. Boy, though, Asmala can rip those formulas right off his head.

Other than the items mentioned below:

Are you fighting in a location receiving any combat adjustments by a religious facility?

If his ships have scored a lot of kills, I think each ship goes up by 1% for each kill, so that may account for a percentage difference.

Same goes for fleet but it seems fleet experience doesn't go up any more...well, at least for me... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Also, a comment on the range calculations (again, I admit to not doing proper research and that others here know these things like the back of their hand)...I thought firing from the adjacent sector had a base chance to hit of 99%.

Finally, you mentioned testing. If you did some testing in the simulator, forget it!

Re: Doing the math
 

Asmala didn't post in this thread. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/confused.gif

"Same goes for fleet but it seems fleet experience doesn't go up any more...well, at least for me... "

Yes it does. It just takes a lot of kills for it to go up.

"Also, a comment on the range calculations (again, I admit to not doing proper research and that others here know these things like the back of their hand)...I thought firing from the adjacent sector had a base chance to hit of 99%."

No. The base chance to hit is 100. It can be modified to be much higher given the right combination of bonuses (such as 150% to hit at range 0). Each square then lowers it by 10. With a base of 150, you get 99% to hit up to range 5. Range 6 has a 90% chance to hit.

[ May 19, 2003, 04:07: Message edited by: Imperator Fyron ]

Re: Doing the math
 

Which is a point, Fyron, that I'm not sure was mentioned (and I'm too lazy to read the thread again... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif )...

Is it a stock game or a mod?

Also, the combat-modifying religious facs might be a very real adjustment tbontob is experiencing.

Re: Doing the math
 

"Which is a point, Fyron, that I'm not sure was mentioned "

Huh? http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/confused.gif

Re: Doing the math
 

<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Just wondering if he was playing under a mod that has altered the basics of "distance" formulas that are in the stock game. 'Course, I could be completely off base... http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/rolleyes.gif

Re: Doing the math
 

Oh... I think he would have mentioned using a mod if he was using one. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Re: Doing the math
 

<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Yeah, well ( http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon12.gif ), it's probably true. But working in IT, I have learned to ask the obvious.

Re: Doing the math
 

I thought I remember reading a year ago, that the formular wasn't as easy as Base+Positives-Negatives.

From what my bad memory can remember, I thought it was something like Base + Combat Sensors - ECM = Total (Rounded down to 100% if over 100%) +/- Race Beinfits, etc.

Mind you, it was a long time ago, maybe even before Gold...

Re: Doing the math
 

to-hit formula didnt change AFAIK

Re: Doing the math
 

The formula was broken before so that some bonuses were applied after the rounding to 1 or 99 (as appropriate). I think they were bonuses on the weapon itself and mount bonuses. But, it was fixed, and is now as simple as adding all bonuses and penalties to the base (including range) and then rounding. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Re: Doing the math
 

<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">I've been watching this thread but I had nothing to say before this. What size the enemy ships were? If they were small ships (light cruisers or smaller) they have built-in defence bonus.

Religious facilities and higher ship/fleet experience has already mentioned. Fleets get experience pretty slow but ships has 30% after few battles. Btw I have had once in my PBW history legendary (+40%) fleet and ships and I can say it was a powerful combination http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

Re: Doing the math
 

<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">

Re: Doing the math
 

<font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif"></font><hr /></blockquote><font size="2" face="Verdana, Helvetica, sans-serif">Oops, I should have read more carefully.

tbontob, is it possible that there was a religious shrine?

[ May 19, 2003, 13:18: Message edited by: Asmala ]

Re: Doing the math
 

I don't think so, there should be no religious facilities involved, so no 15% combat bonus, and no 15% domage bonus.

But it could be a good explanation, as from 50% it would come to 35% to hit at point blank. Which is a huge pain.

But I am curious about tbontob's test, as it assume all weapons fire at point blank range, which is a non sense.

[ May 19, 2003, 13:31: Message edited by: Unknown_Enemy ]

Re: Doing the math
 

Hi guys

Leave for a couple of hours and the thread takes off like topsy. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Maybe an explanation is in order. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

My real opponent and I have yet to fight a battle. This is my first end game and I have come up against that (shudder) horrors-of-horrors, the talisman.

I read in a number of threads that the talisman is so threatening that most players do not want to face the talisman in the end game and will try to eliminate the Religious player early.

So I thought I’d test it and see what all the kafluffle was about. So, the stuff about my real opponent was and is just background. I know he is reading this thread and I am sure he is finding it interesting. Maybe we can both learn something about it. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Aware of the deficiencies of the simulator, I created a game to test it.

The test game is a standard, non-modded game.

The test parameters are as stipulated in the original post. The test opponent has only 120 fleet/ship experience. Whether, my real opponent has more is another question but it is not really relevant.

I groaned when it was mentioned that a Deeply Religious player may get additional in-system bonuses…as if my real adversary doesn’t have enough of an advantage. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif

But, I double checked my test game. Where the battle took place, and there were no in-system facilities which may give the Religious player a benefit.

Unknown enemy did mention, that it is unrealistic that all weapons will fire at point blank range and of course he is right. But with combat replay, it is possible to get an idea of the number of hits made by those ships which do fire at point blank range (i.e. the ships are adjacent to each other).

Re: Doing the math
 

How are you factoring into your simulations the training aspect? Or are you just assuming equal levels of training and so canceling that out? (I think I answered my own question. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif )

Re: Doing the math
 

Another question. Is it possible his shots are taking out your combat sensors early on and thus accounting for the greater then expected number of misses by your ships? Losing that 65% would make it very difficult to hit him. You should be able to confirm this in the simulator, but it will take a veery careful examination and checking each ship as it is damaged.

Geoschmo

Re: Doing the math
 

I redid the test. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

But first it may be worthwhile to state the conditions under which I made the original test. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

1) The original test was meant to just give some idea on the hits and misses. Getting definitive data was not a priority.
2) My original thoughts/calculations were that I should have 50% hits at point blank range (See original post).
3) At point blank range, it is extremely difficult to accurately count the number of hits and misses.
4) I did know I wasn't getting 50% and the 1 sector distance does account for 10%.
5) The number of hits are based on chance, so just like you can have a coin toss and out of 100 tosses get 30 heads, so too can you get 20 or 30 weapon hits out of a hundred. Since it is chance, on the next test you can get 70 heads out of a hundred coin tosses, and 50 or 60 weapon hits out of a hundred. But statistically, out of all the coin tosses we should get 50 heads and in my case 40 weapon hits out of a 100 weapon firings at point blank range.
6) Complicating matters immensely was my inability to actually count the number of hits and misses at point blank range. It happens so fast. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/shock.gif

So, how to test this and get accurate data for you guys. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...s/confused.gif

It suddenly hit me that I do not have to count the number of hits at point blank range. Counting the hits at range two or three would be much easier, as the delay between firings would be greater.

With some messing about, I finally got my ships to shoot first at 3 combat sectors distance.

Counted the number of hits (twice)...11.
Counted the number of shots (twice)...55

Percentage hits...20%, right on the money with 50% - 30% = 20% probability.

If I tested it again, I may get a higer percentage of hits than probability. Or maybe a lower one. But in the long run, I feel cofident that I will get the required number of hits in accordance with the calculations. http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/images/icons/icon10.gif