Never underestimate the AI
 

A lesson I just learned the hard way ...

I was in the first turn of besieging the Pythium capital (on turn 39) with a force of:

1 Gode (w/Shroud)
17 Jotun Woodsmen (bless effects from N9W9)
4 Vine Ogre

which had been more than strong enough to sweep away all the Pythium forces I'd faced on my march to their stronghold, when the Pythium pretender, a Daughter of the Land with 6F & 5A & 6W & 4S !!! comes sallying forth from her dank hole (dark citadel) with a newly-built force (must be new since I control all surrounding provinces and they weren't there when I arrived) of 6 other commanders and 51 assorted troops. Ouch. My valiant, outnumbered, and severely out-magicked troops put up one heck of a bloody fight, but in the end were all slaughtered, though they did manage to kill 41 of the 51 Pythium rabble (gladiators, velites, and vestals).

Re: Never underestimate the AI
 

Sometimes, more than enough just isn't enough, you know? It's like the old saying goes: Anything worth doing is worth doing with excessive force.

In your case, though, I'd recommend a line like "It is luck! I will get revenge!". Then remember above.