![]() |
Fortune teller
Simple question really- Do the effects of multiple fortune tellers stack?
|
Re: Fortune teller
yes.
|
Re: Fortune teller
It depends what you mean by stack. The chances aren't added but each one gets a chance of stopping each bad event.
|
Re: Fortune teller
Yes, in the sense that each fortune teller checks separately for prevention. No, as in their abilities are not additive.
|
Re: Fortune teller
Interesting! Thanks for the responses!
It's been wayyyy too long since high school statistics... How would this look statistically? |
Re: Fortune teller
its better than adding.
2 5% chances > 1 10% chance, as you have the small possibility of cancelling two events. Well, I meant "is better" by the > sign. I grant that the math has been elegantly presented and is right. However, I wonder if there is a way to test this. I raise the question for the following reasons: If you mod 5 10% chances of a dominions magic random - they get summed into 1 50% chance. (Try it). I wonder if that same approach hasn't been done to fortune tellers. The second reason I wonder is because around 20 fortune tellers, I don't seem to ever get bad random events. If I get industrious.. I'll run a test on that. |
Re: Fortune teller
Quote:
0.05^3 + 3 * 0.05^2 * 0.95 + 3 * 0.05 * 0.95^2 = 14.2625% Or, if you prefer the easy way, its: 1 - (1 - 0.05)^3 K. |
Re: Fortune teller
Quote:
|
Re: Fortune teller
If an event attempts to get past fortune tellers, then 20 fortune tellers with 5% will have ~64% of stopping that event.
The formula goes: 1-(1-P)^n, P is the probability of stopping an event (0.05 in this case), and n is the number of fortune tellers (20 in this case). Explanation: The chance for a fortune teller to prevent the event is P, so the chance of the event getting past that fortune teller is (1-P), so the chance for getting past all of the fortune tellers is (1-P)^n, so if we want to see what the chance of the event not getting past all of the fortune tellers we get 1-(1-P)^n. (Feel free to correct me if I'm mistaken http://forum.shrapnelgames.com/image...ies/tongue.gif) |
Re: Fortune teller
You're mistaken.
The goat is actually behind door number 4, the door you came in through. |
All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:23 PM. |
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.1
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright ©1999 - 2025, Shrapnel Games, Inc. - All Rights Reserved.