Enemy estimates correct?
 

Sorry, wondering if this is a bug. Playing Marignon and have the map covered in spies. I am getting information as to the number of enemy troops in those provinces which have been steadily and consistently double the real amount, or slightly more. I know this because of the battles that take place, in this game between two rivals (c'tis and the japanese one). I can see, for instance, that in the last 20 battles or so, a side has had about 40 units, and I am told that approximately 90 are there.

Is this a bug or just a statistical anomoly? or something else?
Thank you

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

It's WAD. As far as I know it is designed that way to represent the errors that can be reported from just a simple scouting act. As if you think about it, one guy hiding out in a province is very unlikely to be able to report back with exact enemy troop numbers. The best he can do is give a rough estimate of numbers and unit types.

Sometimes it will be reported that there is more troops than there really are, sometimes less. Can't say I know for sure what the exact error distribution is, but I'd guess anywhere upto 100% for small numbers of troops (and getting less variable percentage wise for large numbers).

If you want precise troop numbers, you need to use magic spells, such as Astral Window. Although spy units (which you say you are using) should provide more accurate info than simple scouts.

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

Thank you.
I had noticed before this discrepancy, but this time, it's different. This time, it is a consistent 200% estimate. I have not had any reports where the spy has given a report by which the number of troops were underestimated, or an accurate report. I have now seen about 90 reports.

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

Scouting reports give a number that is from 50% to 200% of the actual number of enemies. The reported number can stay the same for a fair while, but can vary from turn to turn.

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

Those errors are actually made by spies? or you have the indy scout
spies are more accurate.
Some units have the spy ability, its an eye inside a triangle icon in the "taskbar" of unit abilities.

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

If you really think that this is a bug then you should upload some turn files so that others may check and confirm if it is indeed a bug or just normal game operations. Like said earlier, the "spy" units are pretty accurate, "scout" units aren't that accurate. Plus, PD might get added to any units stationed in a province if there's a fight, too.

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

- It's Marignon spies. Not scouts, spies.
- With spies, I can see the PD value; there is no confusion there. In fact, the PD values average around 6, not that much more.
- The current state of the game only has 2 battles in it, I will try to wait for a turn in which 5 or 6 are in, you can clearly see the number of overestimates.
Thank you.

Re: Enemy estimates correct?
 

If it's early in the game then the opponent AI might be producing units like crazy in those provinces. You won't be able to see those with your spies in the turn before because they're in the recruitment queue, but they'll be available when a fight happens.