[Thermodyne]

Saddam’s army is finished; without air support they can not maneuver. Just today they tried to move several companies of mounted infantry, perhaps a brigade. Two BUFF’s and some F-18’s utterly destroyed them, highway of death revisited. This leaves Iraq with a hard choice to make. Do they pull out all of the stops and use Gas and VX? Or do they begin to position themselves for what happens after Baghdad falls?

Guerrilla warfare might cause the US to increase the amount of troops that are in country, and they might prevent the countryside from being fully under allied control. But they can not take on armored unit’s head to head, and they will not prevent Baghdad from falling to the Allies. The lead Allied units are setting up a classic armor battle, one where you have to maneuver or be killed in place. The Guards will have to make a decision in a day or two as to how they will fight. Doctrine would advise closing on the Americans so that the air power would be removed from the battle. Problem with this is that it is very hard to close on an Abrams with a T-72. So given that problem, the doctrine would advise falling back into an urban area. But if that area is not Baghdad, then your forces run the risk of being isolated and bypassed. And a run for Baghdad at this point in time would make the retreat from Kuwait look like a minor skirmish. So, do they go all out? Or position themselves for a diplomatic solution? I don’t have a clue what is in the mind of that madman, but if they use WMD, then there will be no settlement of any type.

Personally, I think that Saddam thinks his four divisions of RG’s can take the one American infantry division out first and then wheel on the Marines, inflicting severe casualties that will force the US to negotiate a settlement. Or, that the slaughter of his troops will be so horrific that the world will force the US and Britain to back off and negotiate. The wildcard here is the Republican Guards they hold the key. If one or two of the four division turn on Saddam, then we have a whole new ball game, and a bunch of staff officers will have just made a place for themselves in the new Iraqi government. This corp of officers has tried to take Saddam out on several past occasions. Also, for them the plan is self-serving, the best of all possible outcomes. The Americans are re-supplying for the drive on Baghdad, and should push off very soon, I think the first big engagement will determine what happens within the RG leadership. A lot could happen this weekend.