Thermodyne:
I don't know what the TV networks are reporting, but the 'special coverage' from NPR has definitely mentioned that Rumsfeld had a fantasy war plan that Iraq would crumble when our troops marched in. He wanted to send less than ONE division and rely on air power to handle any resistance. Think of what a disaster this would have been if the actual military men hadn't known better and fought for more troops. As it turned out, Turkey did us a favor by refusing access to the one heavy armored division we were going to send. Now they are going around and will re-inforce the invasion from the south much faster than a division could have been moved all the way from the US. It's still gonna be close to two weeks before they can arrive. Can you imagine how exhausted those Marines and Mechanized Infantry will be in another week or two?
The northern front can be handled by the air-borne and special forces being dropped in.
Wardad:
Saddam will not committ suicide until and unless he has no remaining options. He's been trying to rouse the 'Arab nation' to serve him for decades. The war on Iran was as much a ploy to do this as to grab some territory and gain better access to the sea. Most Americans don't realize that Iranians are
not Arabs, and there is a long-standing ethnic hatred between the Arabs and the Persians (i.e. Iranians). This is one reason that Iran is more-or-less standing aside and not interfering in the US invasion of Iraq. (Militias possibly excepted?)
Saddam's current strategy is still geared towards that same goal of rousing Pan-Arabism -- under
his leadership of course. The 'Fedayin' and other irregulars cannot defeat US troops, and he knows it. He is sending people out to get slaughtered, on purpose, so he can have stories and pictures of the awful slaughter broadcast around the world. This would be why the civilians trying to leave the cities are killed, too. There must NOT be pictures of Iraqi civilians greeting US troops gladly or being aided by them in large numbers. Only pictures of battle and slaughter. So refugees have to be killed before they get in range of the western media cameras. Thanks to the Arabs having their own network this time around, his long-time desire might actually be realized. The resentment is building up fast, and I don't see how this war can possibly be ended in 'a few weeks' as Rumsfeld was fantasizing.
I suspect that the only way Saddam is likely to use WMD is if he can find some way to blame US forces for it. He must realize that he would destroy most of his 'moral advantage' even with other Arabs if he actually used the weapons he claimed he does not have. The mass slaughter is going well, anyway. Lots of bodies, in civilian clothes, are available for the Al Jazeera cameras every day. I wouldn't put it past him to have purposely bombed some neighborhoods in Bagdad in order to create photo-ops, either.
[ March 29, 2003, 20:40: Message edited by: Baron Munchausen ]