[chumbly]

InStar, valid points, but I think the probablites of siding with the rebellion increase with the attachment to the rebel
population. The model I was thinking of was
more the Yugoslav wars at the beginning of the 1990's. When Croatia rebelled, most croat troops in the JNA(yugoslav army) quickly deserted and went home. Yugoslav loyal troops(i.e Serb) in Croatia didn't go over to the Croatian government. They shelled the daylights out of the local population. Those troops in eventual untenable positions like the Zagreb JNA garrison government, shelled the locals for a while, then formed flying columns and ran for safer grounds, shooting up everything as they rode through the countryside.

I don't think it is an unsual model for civil
wars