[Thermodyne]

I didn’t vote in the poll, it was much too leading as far as the available answers were concerned. My feelings are that the US military will always be very large, there are too many times when America has been called upon to prevent aggression in the far parts of the world. As for our foreign policy, it is poor, has always been poor, and will always be poor. We are just not very good at long term planning, and much too impatient when trying to work out difficulties. Our Constitution often ties our hands in situations dealing with human rights.

The lifestyle in the US is good, but it could be much better. We have a bad situation developing
in that we are about to have a large part of a generation entering adult life without the skills
needed to compete in the economy of the 21st century. The jobs that these people used to fill,
no longer exist here. Right now our economy is very stagnate, this is a result of many things,
such as the uncertain nature of the cost of energy, the low demand for borrowed money, and
the failure of several large corporations. Many of these companies were raided from within by
the management during the relaxed reporting rules of the Last administration. Also the attack on
the WTC has had a very negative effect on the recovery. It should be noted that this attack was
planed during the Last administration, and should be laid right at the feet of their budget and the
cuts in human intel that it caused. Now we are involved in a long campaign against terrorism
and the States that support it. Iraq will not be the Last battle in this war, America will aggressive seek out and kill it where ever we are able to track it down. When the war in Iraq is over, the price of oil will again decline, and should stabilize around 24 to 26 dollars a barrel. This reflects the production costs of the major exporters. In the short term it will hurt North American production, and actually shut down some production in the gulf area of America as well as the shale production in Canada. But in the past, the world economies have thrived at 26 dollars a barrel. And, if we really make the effort to build a stable federalist government in Iraq, one that invests the wealth of their oil revenues for the good of the people, then the Arab world will have an example of how to build a better life for their people.

As to our allies, America needs them and wants them. And they need us. What has happened
leading up to Iraq is diplomacy at it’s worst. Anyone with any military knowledge knew that we
were going to war. An Army of that size can not live in tent cities for any length of time. Once
they were deployed, we were at war. The Germans issues were political, and the Social Democrats are now beginning to soften their stance in the face of falling popularity. France on the other hand, was desperately trying to protect their economy. Their trade with Iraq when taken with what they were getting for banking the food for oil program was the strongest sector of their economy. If they loose it all, they will be in recession, and they have a history of political remakes during difficult economic times. Russia, well Russia is Russia. They have a lot
invested with Saddam, and Iraq will probably suggest that they collect it from him personally.
Plus, Russia is still the same country that stood opposite the US during the cold war, and they
see this as another public display of failed Soviet foreign policy, which was to control the majority of the world reserves this time. It is also a public display of failed American policy, we should have finished this the Last time we were there.

What does this do to future foreign policy in the world, I have no idea. It will make people take
a fresh look at American military strength. It will make the Islamic world hate us in the short
run, but that could change. And based on the Palestinian reaction, it could reduce their position in the negotiations that are soon to restart with Israel. At the UN, it will lessen the influence of the body as a whole. And it will decrease the influence of several security council members. I expect that two countries will soon embark on military build ups, and several others will look for ways to build down. One oil exporter will have to rethink their strategic plans, they will no longer control enough production to make inroads into controlling to world markets, and OPEC will have to decide how to proceed with a new government in Iraq. An Iraq that will care more about revenue in the short term than OPEC does.

With the war in Iraq all but over in less than a month, That short chubby guy in N. Korea will be
able to get some front page time now. But he may not really want it so bad after the showing
that his buddy Saddam just gave. His economy will demand that changes be made, and I doubt he will have much of a market for weapons in Iraq now, as well as reduced demand from the Arab states that privately feared Saddam. Also, the economic situation in Cuba is very bad, and is caused by a similar situation. Both Cuba and N. Korea would be good places for the UN to regain some of it’s lost prestige. But before that happens, I think some people will have to accept the fact that it is time for a shake up within the UN, and a return to it’s original mandate. Or, like its predecessor, it will die off as the world power brokers find other ways to debate their problems. It should be noted that the UN has almost always been unable to sway the super powers from their courses of action. And in the cases where it supported military action, the wars were already well under way. When the cold war ended, we went from having basically three teams. East vs. West, with the third world having to decide what was best for them. Now we have America, the second world and the third world. Also we have the remains of the Soviet client empire. They are not third world, and they are not second world. Their problems are some of the most severe in the world, and they are having the hardest time adapting to the new situation.

[ April 05, 2003, 06:26: Message edited by: Thermodyne ]