I redid the test.
But first it may be worthwhile to state the conditions under which I made the original test.
1) The original test was meant to just give some idea on the hits and misses. Getting definitive data was not a priority.
2) My original thoughts/calculations were that I should have 50% hits at point blank range (See original post).
3) At point blank range, it is extremely difficult to accurately count the number of hits and misses.
4) I did know I wasn't getting 50% and the 1 sector distance does account for 10%.
5) The number of hits are based on chance, so just like you can have a coin toss and out of 100 tosses get 30 heads, so too can you get 20 or 30 weapon hits out of a hundred. Since it is chance, on the next test you can get 70 heads out of a hundred coin tosses, and 50 or 60 weapon hits out of a hundred. But statistically, out of all the coin tosses we should get 50 heads and in my case 40 weapon hits out of a 100 weapon firings at point blank range.
6) Complicating matters immensely was my inability to actually count the number of hits and misses at point blank range. It happens so fast.
So, how to test this and get accurate data for you guys.
It suddenly hit me that I do not have to count the number of hits at point blank range. Counting the hits at range two or three would be much easier, as the delay between firings would be greater.
With some messing about, I finally got my ships to shoot first at 3 combat sectors distance.
Counted the number of hits (twice)...11.
Counted the number of shots (twice)...55
Percentage hits...20%, right on the money with 50% - 30% = 20% probability.
If I tested it again, I may get a higer percentage of hits than probability. Or maybe a lower one. But in the long run, I feel cofident that I will get the required number of hits in accordance with the calculations.
