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Old August 28th, 2003, 10:07 AM
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Default Re: OT:US don\'t qualify for EU membership, don\'t spank children, WW2 history.

It is my duty to make sure this thread stay completely out of topic.
So, here is the following article about....Saudia Arabia.



STRATFOR'S GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE REPORT
http://www.stratfor.com
27 August 2003

Saudi Arabia: The Fracture Widens

Summary

Saudi Arabia is scrambling to save collapsing relations with Britain and the United States. However, Riyadh's unwillingness or inability to dismantle the financial networks supporting al Qaeda will limit chances for saving these alliances.

Analysis

The United States and Britain are giving Saudi Arabia the cold shoulder, prompting a high-level aide to Crown Prince Abdullah, Adel al Jubair, to go on the diplomatic offensive. Jubair recently told The Associated Press that Saudis were not crossing the border into Iraq -- days after U.S. officials blamed Riyadh for not securing the border in efforts to prevent terrorism. Last week, the senior Saudi spokesman gave another interview to BBC Radio 4, trying to counter bad publicity in connection with the six British citizens recently deported from the kingdom. The citizens had been imprisoned there since 2000 in connection with a bombing campaign against Westerners in Riyadh.

London and Washington now are pressing the Saudis both to prevent militants from crossing the border into Iraq and to close the financial networks funding al Qaeda. Riyadh apparently is doing neither. Because targeting al Qaeda's Saudi backers undermines the kingdom's economic and political structure, Riyadh can neither ignore the demands from Washington and London nor comply. This means the quandary will further erode the kingdom's relations with Britain and the United States.

A cornerstone of the House of Saud's stability has been its relationship with London and Washington -- and with Houston. However, the Sept. 11 attacks fundamentally changed Riyadh's alliance with Britain and the United States. Since then, the government of de facto ruler Crown Prince Abdullah has scrambled to develop a cohesive strategy for regaining U.S.-British confidence. Squelching al Qaeda in the kingdom, sharing intelligence about the militant network's global operations and cooperating with the U.S. invasion of Iraq all have been intended to revive the deteriorating relations.

The strategy hasn't worked. U.S. officials have claimed that Saudi fighters are crossing the border into Iraq to wage war against the U.S. military. The Saudi government denies this, but it is logical to conclude that some militants in the kingdom might move into Iraq to escape Riyadh's crackdown. Riyadh is quite happy to push the militants into Iraq and complicate the U.S. military occupation, and the situation has intensified the the diplomatic problem.

Saudi Arabia's approach is a public relations offensive combined with a ride-the-storm-out attitude. Jubair's press offensive is meant to stake out a Saudi position of innocence, while the government sets up a joint task force with FBI, IRS and U.S. Treasury officials to investigate the financial networks connected to the May 12 suicide bombings in Riyadh. The task force's mandate will mean little unless Riyadh follows the investigation by seizing the assets of al Qaeda's supporters.

Riyadh has taken a few tentative steps toward gaining control of alleged or suspected al Qaeda financial networks. For instance, the commercial Saudi American Bank (SAMBA) closed the account of Jeddah-based businessman Khaled bin Salim bin Mahfouz, the London-based al Sharq al Awsat daily reported Aug. 25. The wealthy Saudi businessman is the former owner of the National Commercial Bank in Saudi Arabia and also is named as a defendant in the lawsuit brought by the families of those who died in the Sept. 11 attacks.

The decision to close the account likely originated in Riyadh, since the report said the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency was aware of the decision but that bin Mahfouz knew nothing of the closure until SAMBA notified him. However, the move will do little to satisfy Washington, since SAMBA returned to bin Mahfouz the entire value of his deposit. U.S. intelligence and government officials are looking for substantive measures, and failure to seize Mahfouz's assets -- or those of any alleged financier -- will not build confidence in Washington.

Al Qaeda's financial backers in the kingdom pose a clear and present danger to the ruling House of Saud. Exiled Osama bin Laden's primary goal is the establishment of an Islamic caliphate in the Arabian Peninsula. He denies the legitimacy of the House of Saud and has encouraged its downfall. The al Qaeda presence in the kingdom, the enouncements of the kingdom's leaders and its ties with the U.S. military all are intended to lead to the House of Saud being overthrown -- to be replaced by a radical Wahabbi Islamist government that is friendly to bin Laden. The men who provide the network with money are vital to al Qaeda's ability to continue operations inside the kingdom and around the globe.

Given this, it is startling that Riyadh isn't eager to seize the assets of alleged or suspected al Qaeda backers. However, Riyadh is trapped in a nightmarish catch-22. At its core, the House of Saud might be intimately intertwined with the Saudi businessmen and merchants, religious leaders, tribal chieftains, public officials and philanthropists funding al Qaeda. For instance, behind every major business leader in Saudi Arabia is a prince from the House of Saud.

The relationship is profitable for both Groups and critical to the Saudi economy. Without the business relationship, many princes could not maintain their wealthy lifestyles -- and without the princes' influence, many businessmen would not win the government contracts that fuel the economy's growth.

Despite the establishment of the joint task force, there are few indications that Riyadh is ready to redraw the country's economic and political landscape, which is exactly what tackling the moneymen would entail.

However, both the United States and Britain are growing impatient. The guerrilla war in Iraq is making things worse, but it is the fundamental dispute over al Qaeda's finances that is causing the rift. Until Riyadh takes serious steps to stop the cash flow, the kingdom's relations with Britain and the United States will continue to disintegrate.

[ August 28, 2003, 13:27: Message edited by: Unknown_Enemy ]
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