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Old December 27th, 2003, 11:37 PM
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Kamog Kamog is offline
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Default Re: OT: Home Sick for the Holidays, or Probability and Yahtzee

Since Excel can't handle 1000 events in the calculations, I have settled for something less ambitious.
I calculated the probability for each of the results for the 100 dice rolls for David and Claude.

The numbers are cumulative, so for example the first entry means that there's a 80% chance of getting 14 or more 6's out of 100 dice rolls.

code:
David	Probability	Odds		        Claude	Probability	Odds
14 0.7999947521 1 in 1.25 34 0.0000190716 1 in 52434
12 0.9222807788 1 in 1.1 32 0.0001238040 1 in 8077
17 0.5058410243 1 in 2.0 35 0.0000070251 1 in 142347
20 0.2197498431 1 in 4.6 37 0.0000008412 1 in 1188738
17 0.5058410243 1 in 2.0 28 0.0031013887 1 in 322
16 0.6123424483 1 in 1.6 31 0.0002957849 1 in 3381
21 0.1518878479 1 in 6.6 36 0.0000024818 1 in 402926
32 0.0001238040 1 in 8077 27 0.0062087189 1 in 161
18 0.4005925583 1 in 2.5 33 0.0000496373 1 in 20146
15 0.7125790826 1 in 1.4 33 0.0000496373 1 in 20146

From this, it appears that what Claude did is very, very, improbable!
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