Personally, I think the issue will really revolve around whether there is anything of value there to somebody. Take for instance, Antarctica. There is a plot of land down there that no one's fighting over. In fact, there is a joint effort science establishment there. And IIRC, there are treaties in place saying something similar to those about the moon. Why? 'Cause there's not much there anyone wants EXCEPT the scientific community.
So until we can economically get that He3 molecule (or whatever that post was describing about Helium) or find huge reserves of gold or other precious substances, the moon isn't worth it for anyone to fight over...except of course the con men...
