[Baron Munchausen]

I'm not too sure that there isn't some plain old RANDOMNESS built into the AI reactions. Notice the "Propose Treaty Percent Chance Per Turn" setting in the AI_Politics files. So this is randomized even when under control of anger levels. There might be some random factors involving 'first impressions' and reactions to events, as well. I've been at "Moderate" with some AIs and had them declare war the very next turn even though I saw no events in the log about any conflict that could have set them off.