[Pocus]

Originally posted by Nagot Gick Fel:

quote:

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Originally posted by Pocus:
I dont have the figures, but I would like to know what is the probability to win a duel, as the defender, when you are at -2 and when you loose tie. Thats must be pretty low.

1/6 (17%) if the higher skilled mage initiates the duel, and 10/36 (28%) otherwise. But If the defender has 2 mages who take the risk to magic duel a single mage who's +2 in astral skill, the odds climb to 48%. With 3 mages, that's 61%. So even with winning ties, the risk for the attacker is real.

Would you risk your grand masters at 270 gp apiece, or Witch Hunter (less costly, but even more loosy in an astral duel), knowing that you are facing Arco or Pythium? I dont think so. A single mystic with skull cap and medaillion (to counter the ones Marignon would field) would fries them all.

The greatest threat comes from TPers/gaters, because you can't see them coming. But when that happens the defender has the benefit of the first shot. Look at the numbers above - 2 Witch Hunters cost only 300 gp, and have 48% chance to fry an Arch-Theurg which costs way more if they duel first. Things are not as desperate as you think.

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ok, I fired XL.

You have indeed 17% chance of winning a duel, if you are at -2 and loosing tie.

Your percentages pertaining to examples where the lower astral nation initiate a duel are exacts, but I dont think many people will have the guts to engage witch hunters in a counter battery of duel against Arco (WH cost nearly the same btw)

I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.