[Pocus]

Originally posted by Nagot Gick Fel:

quote:

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Originally posted by Pocus:
I prefer to point out that a single mystic, unenhanced has 69% of killing 2 WH in a row, and 57% to kill three.
Costly enough to warrant that the defender earn the tie IMO.

Costly enough because you're only considering the worst case: cheapest astral-3 initiating duel vs most expensive astral-1. Now do the same math with an Arch Theurg vs 4 or 5 Star Childs (assuming these fire first), and do a mean before giving figures.

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True in theory, false most of the time in practice, because of the thunder rod effect you have with magic duel, the same one you get when you Vengeance of the Dead somebody :

The highest astral level will be targeted. I wonder if somebody can really send 3/4 archtheurg in a gating party against a weak astral nation, without having at least one enhanced with starshine skull cap and/or astral medallion.

Where as I would not dare pretend that somebody is rich enough to give +1 astral items on astral 1 mages which are more or less in a province to counter a 'possible' gateway.

So in essence the situation you speak of is seldomly, if never encountered, in my humble opinion ( a mere +2 supremacy between an attacking party of a strong astral nation, versus a defensive and/or garrisoning party of a weak astral nation).

Well you can argue that it can happen. Sure. It can also happen to gate 75 summer lions with only one leader, loose the leader by a stray arrow, and have all your lions dissolve*. But I think you speak of situations which have a reasonable chance of happening between players somehow experimented.

* : happened to me in my first pbem, so the example is demonstrative of a newbie attitude

so when you spoke of doing a mean, I concur. But do a ponderated mean, with the associated probabilities that the events appear.

[ October 07, 2003, 13:39: Message edited by: Pocus ]