[Wendigo]

Disclaimer: I have no problem with bonused AIs, I expect the AI in strategy games to be boosted if it has to put up a fight vs an experienced human player.

That said, I still insist the my experience doesn't match the one of the OP, the AI certainly fails at 'predicting' or being informed of my moves. Dunno if anything he does in his testing might tip his results (building local def?), but I have one to propose myself:

-Let the enemy AI siege one of your forts, let it build up the sieging force while you round up a massive flying relief force a couple provinces away (or a boosted SC flying pretender). Attack the sieging force & waste them. If the AI knew that your uberpretender was coming, why would it keep its army there mantaining the siege?