SurvivalistMerc, only if the AI was cheating
and programmed to think about those things while cheating, which seems even more far-fetched than what's been suggested here.
Whismerhill, I think you're probably getting paranoid - no offense!
I haven't seen anything that made me think the AI might be moving based on my moves. Quite the contrary. I've seen plenty of cases where the AI has seemed to "guess wrong" (or, not even considering) about where I was going to move, and as others have pointed out, the AI itself seems slightly overly-predictable about always moving its armies around, usually inside its own territory, so that a very strong province surrounded by empty or weak provinces, will probably be weak the next turn (assuming it has commanders to lead the men away). Often, though, the AI has multiple armies marching around, and unless you have scouts behind their lines, you may not see the army that is about to march into a province.
As for catching spies, I think the mechanic has changed since Doms I - I've caught many AI spies and assassins without having any patrols or units in my provinces - just some defense. That's just a sensible change in the game mechanics for both sides, and has nothing to do with AI. (Unless I'm wrong about the cause of more captures on both sides compared to Doms I, in which case the AI is just uses more spies and defense, which would just be an AI quality improvement.)
PvK
[ November 21, 2003, 18:04: Message edited by: PvK ]