[Pocus]

Awesome work Sunray, we can draw some probabilities from what you have done.

To sum up :
- Order 0 & Luck 0 = 36 events in 82 turns. 20 good events (I've been lucky) but 5 disasters.
- Order-3 & Luck +3 = 88 events in 82 turns. 61 good events (including the 1500 gold, for a total of 3245 gp bonuses). But still 7 big disasters!
- Order+3 & Luck-3 = 6 events in 123 turns. Only minor effects.

Did it:
Order 0 and Luck +3 = 43 events / 80 turns, 9 bad (1 flood) and 34 good events (1500 gold event among others).
Order +3 and Luck 0 = 8 events / 80 turns, 3 bad (still 1 flood !) and 5 good (1 hero even with luck 0).
Any thought ?

Order O and Luck -3 = 39 events / 82 turns, 28 bad events (6 disasters) and still 11 good events.

what we knows from IW : probability of good event at luck 0 : 50%. Adjustment from luck : +-10%

what we deduce from your tests :

probability of drawing an event (max 2) at order 0 : 50%
probability of drawing an event at order 3 : 10%

=> I would say that order modify event probability by +- 13% - 15%

Taking your figures, and computing the theorical numbers now that would give:

order 0 : 36 events / 82 turns
theorically would give 41 events, not far.

order -3 : 88 events events / 82 turns
theorically would give 82 events, not far.

order 3 : 6 events / 123 turns
theorically would give 6 events, perfect fit!
etc.

Common Race designs :

In order we believe :
with Order 3 Luck -3 you have 5% chance of getting an event, with 80% of it being bad.

Lady Luck:
With Order -3 Luck +3, you have one event a turn in average, with 80% of being good.

On the safe side:
With Order 0 Luck +1, you have 50% of having an event, with 60% chances of it being good. (People generally takes that for national heroes too).