[Jasper]

Originally posted by johan osterman:
First of all I still think that the bad luck events are not that much of a problem, not compared with the income loss. The 66% income of turmoil 3 to order 3 dominates the effect of the badluck events themselves. So if order -3 luck +3 is less viable than order +3 luck -3 it is in my mind much more to the constant income loss rather than the effects of negative events. It is highly unlikely that bad events will come remotely close to having as much of a negative impact as the turmoil will.

Definitely the income lost is just too much, and way more of a factor than the bad events.

I hope this doesn't come out as sounding condescending, but I believe many dominions players tend to overestimate risk compared to predictable loss, many strategy players seem to be very averse to random factors and I think this is reflected in the negative press the badluck events get. The sense I get from much of the discussion is that players worry more about the hurricanes and floods than they do about the income loss from turmoil.

However, I partially disagree with this. The bad events really are worse than the good events on average in my experience, over and above players being risk adverse.

Bad events are always bad, suffer from increasing decrements, and are more likely to destroy something critical permanently than good events are to give a permanent increase.

Good events are often not usefull, sometimes even harmfull, have decreasing increments, and are likely to be minor things like gems or worthless troops. There are occasionally _very_ usefull things -- but these are rare.

Good events I usually see: Random worthless troops, small amounts of possibly usefull gems, usually unusefull items, laughable increases in province defense, etc. Hero, Gold and mine events also crop up, but are relatively rare. Very often "good" events don't actually improve my position.

Bad events I usually see: Gold lost through unrest, event, or province loss. Temple and lab destruction. Permanent income reduction. Theft of stuff I was planning on using. Bad events typically hurt my position.

I'm not really sure why, and perhaps my tests are just skewed, but the balance of possible good vs. bad events seems substantially different from Dom 1.