[Saber Cherry]

Mind Duel Death Rates.

Differential Rolls for Opposing 1d6 Closed:

-6 : 0.000%
-5 : 2.788%
-4 : 5.539%
-3 : 8.342%
-2 : 11.119%
-1 : 13.866%
0 : 16.628%
1 : 13.862%
2 : 11.131%
3 : 8.323%
4 : 5.595%
5 : 2.807%
6 : 0.000%

Cumulative Death Probability:

-6 :100.000%
-5 :100.000%
-4 : 97.212%
-3 : 91.673%
-2 : 83.331%
-1 : 72.212%
0 : 58.346%
1 : 41.718%
2 : 27.856%
3 : 16.725%
4 : 8.402%
5 : 2.807%
6 : 0.000%

The minor asymmetry is due to small sampling size (2,000,000) so it seems to be good to 2.5 figures.

Those are rolls for opposing 1d6. The "Cumulative" figures give a mages chance of death in a mind duel with the listed skill (ignore the plus signs). In other words, if a mage's skill is 5 lower, he always dies; 4 lower, he dies 97.2% of the time... at equal levels, each mage has a 58.3% chance of death. +5 gives you a 100% chance of killing the opponent (but you still die 2.8% of the time) and you have to be 6 levels above or higher to always win and never die.

Note that communion-induced magic levels are not displayed on the screen.

-Cherry

P.S. Alexti: Thanks for codifying your algorithm! I have not translated it to Java yet (laziness) but I probably will soon=)