I think a real test would be to control the entire world except for about 5 provinces (the same ones in each case) and let it run for about 30 or so turns.
Large numbers of provinces seem to dramatically increase the number of events.
The most positive thing about bad luck is that its worst effects are usually delayed until you are winning.
But not always. I've lost my lab in my home province on turn 6 or so if memory serves, and I've had that horrible flood event early on also.
I don't even want to think about ancient presence in the home province. I haven't had that one yet, and I wager it is linked to a positive magic scale, which I seem to seldom use. Drain isn't that hard to overcome if you put a bit of death magic on your pretender.
