[PvK]

Yes, Illwinter has posted a few times that the events only occur if certain conditions exist in the target province.

A tweak or two may still be in order. For instance, I think it'd be reasonable that if you have positive Luck scale in a province, it should be impossible or extremely unlikely to suffer from random catastrophes that kill more than say 5% of the population. Then if you took luck and kept your dominion strong in your home province, you wouldn't have to worry about getting bLasted by a bad event if you took a positive Luck scale, and that would be a good reason to get points for taking a negative Luck scale.

PvK