Yes, so you have to either go with the chance that you will stabilize your economy for the 75% 3k-8k provinces with the 25% 10k+ as you take them with Cold 3, Growth 1 or give you an across the board -3% loss including your capital.

Or you can take Cold 2 and have 75% 3k-8k, 25% 10k+ provinces giving you 3% Less while your capital gives you 3% more.

Like I said, it's all in your playstyle and what you are willing to accept as a variable. People don't take Misfortune 2 because of the chances of a variable happening, while others do.

In this particular case the one thing almost guarenteed is that your capital will be losing -5% income (or -3% with Growth) which is a factor, like I said, for me as I place more value on initial effects that impact the game than longstanding ones. Especially with how important gold is.