March 12th, 2004, 02:57 AM
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Second Lieutenant
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Join Date: Jan 2004
Posts: 510
Thanks: 24
Thanked 31 Times in 12 Posts
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Re: Are some randoms more random than others?
Quote:
Originally posted by tinkthank:
- If 1 out of 4 CMs gets at least 3 water, then isnt the chance also that 1 out of 4 CMs gets 2 Fire, Astral or Air? (Chance of getting +1 water = chance of getting +1 to anything else they already have, right?)
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Depends on how you phrase the question 
If you ask, what are the odds of a Celestial Master to get at least 2 Fire, it is indeed ~23.4% under the equal distribution hypothesis. [And likewise if you ask specifically about 2 Air or 2 Astral]
If you ask, what are the odds of a Celestial Master getting at least 2 Fire or at least 2 Air or at least 2 Astral, the odds are much, much, higher. Since the chance of getting NO extra fire, air, or astral would be 5/8*5/8 ~ 39.1%, you can expect 60.9% of Celestial Masters to have at least 2 picks in one of the minor default paths.
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