[Peter Ebbesen]

Originally posted by The_Duke:

BUT, I have played several games with +3 Turmoil +3 Luck and other with +3 Order, and I just cant make up my mind what is better, monetary wise.

Does the positive events really make up for the –21% in income? (I know it is not exactly 21%, it depends on a lot of things). Yeah, the +1500 pesos every now ant then is great, but a loss of income for every province you own every turn.

The income difference is much, much, more than 21%. At +3 order you get +21% at -3 you get -21% for a span of 42%.

Assuming for a moment growth=0, production=0, the relative income factor between a +3 nation competing with a -3 nation is (1+.21)/(1-.21)~1.53, i.e. the +3 nation is earning, on a daily basis, 53% more than the -3 nation. This is the factor you will notice in the income-graph in the ledger.

Now, how does that compare with the extra income from luck? Well, for 42% of base income to exceed 1500g requires the base income to total 3571g. In other words, if your base income is, say, 500g, then you need a 1500g gift at least every 3571/500 ~7 days for the gifts to be worth more.

This is, of course, voodoo mathematics

I have not taken into account that +3 order costs 120 points while -3 order, +3 luck costs 0. Nor have I taken lesser gifts into account. Yet, even so, you can see that if gold is your yardstick then you need to earn a LOT of money from random events (by direct gold or gem events) in order for luck to be more profitable economically.

Going with the same 42% span as before and with the base income being the income at 0 order:

Daily base income 300g. Average daily luck-income needed 126g
Daily base income 500g. Average daily luck-income needed 210g
Daily base income 700g. Average daily luck-income needed 294g
Daily base income 1000g. Average daily luck-income needed 420g
Daily base income 1500g. Average daily luck-income needed 630g

Do YOU earn that kind of money on average from luck events - even if you alchemize all the gems? I sure do not.

[And remember, while you get a maximum of 3 random events per turn, your order/turmoil scale affects the income of each and every province]

You save on nation points and you get all sorts of interesting events, many good and many bad, and you gain an exceptional amount of gems if you also have a +3 magic environment, and you gain an occasional windfall of money but do not, for one single instance, believe that it pays off in the gold economy to go turmoil 3, luck 3.

It does not.

Go turmoil 3, luck 3 should probably be reserved for maenad-Pangaea, AE/SG Ermor, and Michtlan.

[Waiting for counterexamples ]