April 1st, 2004, 05:04 AM
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Corporal
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Join Date: Nov 2003
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Re: On the effective early use of Pretenders in combat
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Using this comparative chart, we see that with the +3 advantage, the Wyrm has a 16.725% chance of surviving each duel, for a 1-(1-0.1675)^n risk of dying against n duelists. For n=6 that is 66.7%, for n=10 the risk of the Wyrm dying is 84.0%.
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I assume you mean the wyrm has a 16.7% chance of *NOT* surviving each duel.
In any case 5 + 1d6 being less than 2 + 1d6 occurs for exactly 5 out of 36 possible cases ( 1 and 6, 1 and 5, 1 and 4, 2 and 6, 2 and 5 ). That's 13.8% not 16.7%.
P.S. are we sure a draw kills both of them ? That seems a rather odd result... |