Re: Help my start
The main things I'd take issue with (at least on first glance) are the following:
your scales. I think Tuatha theme is better off with Order 2 and Sloth 1 or 2. You don't need a ton of resources especially with a fortress, since your best troops are Daoine Sidhe, and longbows. Order 2 will give you more money = more longbows early. Sloth will give you the points to put into a higher dominion, so you can churn out more than 4 Daoine Sidhe per turn.
your research. constr.2 then alt.3 then thaum.2 then constr. I always head straight to alt. 4 for wind guide - it makes a difference in how effective your longbows will be, and only costs 1 gem per cast. I can understand a side trip for owl quills, but Wind Guide would be a priority for me.
what you're building. If you're using Mercs (which is a great idea) I would spend build max possible longbows. Daoine Sidhe are great, but IMO they are for later, once you have taken the indie provinces. 40-50 wind-guided longbows can take on most any indie province, with just a small force of Mercs to soak up arrows.
of course Caelum and longbows isn't the best combo, unless you have a staff of storms, in which case it's ok, but not great, so that might change things.
I wouldn't waste my time with Sidhe Lords much beyond the first few turns - the Tuatha are that much more able to cast the spells you want, even though they cost a bit more. but even then, you get 3 more levels of magic for 110 gold.
The only other thing I'd say is that Caelum were breathing down my neck like that, I'd take them out. Caelum isn't that tough early game, you would probaby be more than a match for them.
As far as getting into trouble around turns 15-20 my question would be whether or not you are maintaining a force on your borders. Often a declaration of war can be averted by keeping a strong military presence on your border - which gives you time to build more troops etc.
hope some of that's helpful/thought-provoking.
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