When I looked at the results, Ermor was in the lead in both categories (most likely to win *and* most likely to be eliminated first).
Of course, this poll is unscientific: it just asks people their subjective impressions of which nations are most likely to win/be eliminated, and is not based on actual records of games played. People may remember incorrectly.
Also, it compares games played with different game settings, maps, and sets of nations participating, and as we all know, Dom 2 has a significant luck element (and I'm not just talking about the scale).