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Originally posted by Boron:
ok thnx . so you chose this formula
but i am unsure if you may only chose this formula or if you have to include something else .
because for 5+ of 1 path i think there should be 12 possible solutions :

AAAAAW , AAAAAE , AAAAAF , WWWWWA , WWWWWE , WWWWWF , EEEEEW , EEEEEA , EEEEEF , FFFFFA , FFFFFW , FFFFFE .

so 12 not 6 possible permutations right ?

i am unsure which formula(s) to use to get this outcome .
for 5+ it is easy to find it out because you can do the 12 permutations manually .
but for 3+ etc. you need a formula .

i forgot the permutations but i think you may not use your formula because this way you miss 6 possible permutations for 5+ example .

but i don't find a formula for this now so please tell me if i made a fault again or when you found a new one

This formula is ofr the permutaion once you have fixed your results ...

so, if you decide that you want a 5 Air 1 Everythnig but air, you (as you post in your first message) have a probability of 1/4 ^ 5 * 3/4.

But that result is without permutation becouse you can have 6 ways to get a AAAAAAR and that are

AAAAAAR AAAARA AAARAA AARAAA ARAAAA RAAAAA

of course if yiu are interessed in a generic (not specific) 5 level mage you have to multilply that possibility by four

To prove that that is true ... if you want a 5 Air 1 something else you have 3 (R = E,F,W) possibility for each of the 6 permutaions so are 18 possibility for a total of 4 ^ 6

18 / 4096 = 0.00439453125

that is exactly the same number you got form

1/4 ^ 5 * 3/4 * 6

good play
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