[Thermodyne]

Why would aliens bother to contact us? The cost would be huge and the returns few. IMHO we would be nothing more than an academic exorcize for them. They would study us without contact. Contact would ruin their results. As for us finding earth like planets and colonizing space, that’s not likely either. If they were afraid of us, then they could just drop a big rock on us, end of story. But, if they wanted this world for their own use, then they just need to wait a few more decades and they can just occupy it when we exhaust the resources. But probably they will just study us as it is unlikely that they could live here without reengineering themselves. We can barely deal with small changes in the life that exists on this world. Influenza being an example. What would happen if we set foot on a planet that had a whole biosphere that was unknown to our immune systems? And as to mining and manufacturing, who would be able to afford the products and resources. We can’t make use of many of the resources that we have now because of the recovery and transportation costs. And unless two things happen very soon, we are probably at our high water mark for this society. We need a new source of energy and a reduction in population growth. And we need both very soon.

World demand for oil is greater than production today, and demand will continue to outpace supply for the foreseeable future. There is probably one more big production kick left in world reserves, but at current use levels we will burn through that in less than 50 years. Now I can hear many of you thinking that new technology will take care of this. But this has yet to be the case. The only thing that is ready to go now is nuclear power generation. And we all know the pros and cons of this, so I will skip the discussion. Fusion, hydrogen, and natural sources such as wind and water current all will need a technical breakthrough to be feasible. The only promising new technology at this time is magnetic flux, which is in its infancy. We will need a new source of cheap energy to continue or current rate of development. You can add to that the need for it to be clean energy.

The second problem is the success we have had as a species. If population growth continues at the current rate, we will soon be little more than locusts. We will strip the planet bare. Our current system for feeding the masses relies on cheap energy. Take away the cheap food and people would be starving now. Add this to the effect we are having on the environment and the problem just gets worse. The results of this are already being seen across the world. Although very few people are will to publicly address this issue.

We have already seeing the first conflicts for control of energy reserves. The deal just inked between Iran and China almost guarantees that Japan will have to secure reserves else ware. And to add to their problems, I doubt that Alaskan oil will continue to be shipped to Asia much beyond the end of the current contracts. At $50 dollars a barrel it becomes economical to ship it to the lower 48. This will rekindle the competition for the oil known to be in the South China Sea. And, if Saudi reserves prove to be vapor, as it is beginning to appear, then the problem arrives much sooner.

As a society, we are probably a real good case study. And if there are advanced beings out there, they would probably spend some resources to document our rise and fall. A society that fell victim to our own biological success. In a way, it would be like us studying the fall of the Roman Empire, or contemplating the demise that ended the great societies that once thrived in SE Asia and Africa. Now perhaps the aliens could announce themselves and offer us the technology to produce cheap renewable energy. Give us access to the stars. But I doubt it. I fail to see how that could be in their best interests. At our current level of evolution, I can imagine what we would end up doing with such technology. And perhaps it is not just an issue of evolution. Perhaps it is our very success as a species that would prevent them from doing so. Should we be able to adapt to living on alien worlds, how long would it take us to out grow our welcome? A long time by our measure, but perhaps only a blink of an eye to the way a superior society viewed time.