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Old January 14th, 2005, 07:06 AM

Zooko Zooko is offline
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Default Re: Question about statistics

The thing about probability is that it only applies to unknowns, e.g. to the future.

The chance that you got five Mystics in a row with 3-stacks is 1 out of 1. It's what happened!

That might sound flippant, but it is a common mistake to attempt to apply probability reasoning to selected events from the recent past. Note the "selected" part.

Also, in a truly random sequence, patterns will appear. What's the chance that people summoning a string of mystics will see something unusual about the pattern, like never getting any fire magic, or every mystic having at least one air magic, or something. The odds are pretty high!
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