[kevin]

Oh Boy!!! We are really hitting all my favorite topics this week. My Bachelors Degree is in Chinese and Japanese history. Where do I begin?

I don't think the US Military fears China. It makes a good Hollywood story line to portray warmongering Generals playing up fear to get more budget money. I am the type of nerd who watches Congressional Briefings, and China has rarely come up in the last ten years. Generally the concern is:
1. Development of Long-Range, hypersonic, huge anti-ship missiles (practical only for sinking US Super Carriers or Oil SuperTankers)
2. Weapons proliferation, which China has cut back on since 9/11

The Chinese and the Russians are very different people, whether they are communist or not. Calling China communist today is a joke, since they are selling the last of there state-run industries. I think the Chinese Leadership is not so fatalistic as to be cavalier with nuclear weapons. They do have the attitude that the Chinese people are "peasants" who serve them, and I don't think they want to loose that power.

China does not have the power to invade Tiawan. They do not have enough amphibious capability. They can launch a large Air and Sea battle (astride the world's most busy shipping lane) and China can beat Tiawan do to sheer mass. But, to what end? They have the WTO, world acceptance and they need oil.

The Chinese power structure is somewhat unique. So far, the emerging middle and wealthy classes have not demanded a seat at the leadership table, as has happened with every other Western nation when a middle class arises. Chinese culture, emphasizing the family over the individual, and harmony over agitation, may allow an open market economy exist in a totalitarian political system. (I wrote a paper on this very subject.) Admission into the WTO, (undeserved in my opinion, but we needed them not to Veto and Enduring Freedom UN resolutions) has solidified the ruling faction's grip on power. This is the faction that wants engagement and commerece with the West.

The final thing worth noting is what I call the "Walmart effect." After 5 years the US / Chinese economies are now so thoroughly linked that trade sanctions and threats are not practical. China is growing by manufacturing dinky little things that Americans scoop up for cheap. So in the end, it is still American dollars and most Americans understand this. (ok no they don't, but those are the dumba**es that don't vote anyways) There is no need to fear the big Red Chinese Machine.

I think you will see China make a slow, very slow transition to democracy, an "Asian Democracy" much like Japan, different in form and style, just as the US and Europe practice Democracy in different ways.