Wow, I would really like to read your thesis papers on this Kevin! I would never have hoped for such a specialist around!
Now you agree that China has no interest in attacking any neighbouring country without threat. They seem to have mastered quite well the tricks of 'economical warfare' and to be well beyond force shows.
Now everyone here says that agreeing that China and USSR are different, and gabbling about mad generals and so on... Should I recall that NO mad Russian general has made any silly attempt as described yet?
So, in the same way that many here play cold-war breakout scenarios without it ever having a fair chance to happen (and stay playable in this game, IIMSS), why not, in full gear paranoid gamer's imagination, consider a potential Taiwan conflict as a good scenario mining patch
Now whatever you say, Kevin, I remain quite frightened that there be a good level of political instability in China right now, external influence or not. Some people who also know China from first hand have raised this question, but I think the 'opportunity window' for any really chaotic political turnaround for China only will close quite soon.