[Taqwus]

One can see a few possibly intended effects.

The first is psychological shock. Apparently, quite a few citizens were unaware of the possibility of foreign terrorism hitting U.S. soil (by which I mean Stateside; embassies are nominally U.S. sovereign territory and have been hit before). This shock is undoubtably going to cause some to wonder whether the U.S. should revise its foreign policy by, say, pulling out of the Middle East -- withdrawing support for, say, Saudi Arabia and Israel, for instance, in the name of peace. With this president and this foreign policy staff, this seems, er, unlikely to actually happen, but if there is a seemingly endless series of incidents against which the three-letter-agencies seem helpless the penduluum *could* swing.

Another effect is going to be unwarranted rage against American Arabs, and anybody that seemingly *looks* like an Arab -- e.g. Sikhs with their turbans. Some footage of anti-Arab riots, perhaps some mosques on fire or a few shootings, and that's new material for recruitment videos. Likewise, if the military response, assuming it occurs, appears ineffective or even incompetent, *especially* with collateral damage, that's also golden for Al Qaeda and friends.

To a lesser extent, there may be improvements in immigration security / border controls, but these could also cause resentment among non-Americans, especially if they are seen to be more restrictive towards Middle Easterners. Can we say, "racial profiling"?

Then, there are going to be attempts at increasing security with less regard for civil liberties -- restrictions on encryption technology, for instance, have already been demanded and are much more likely to get Congressional / Presidential approval in this climate, methinks. Taken too far, these measures may increase anti-government sentiment among some.

A potentially very dangerous effect is the sudden focus on airport / airline security. Assume that these attacks were part of a coordinated plan, and that there may already be other cells already located stateside just in case *all* international travel was locked down. Locking down airports more is an obvious response, so there are at least three major options regarding next target. The first would be that civillian aircraft make fine missiles, but it's worth waiting until the current frenzy dies down -- perhaps in a few months, the country will be less vigilant.

The second approach is that the psychological impact will be increased if the FAA and other Federal entities declare that it's safe to fly, and then to strike again at the height of alleged security -- thus suggesting that the security organizations are still impotent and that the actors can strike whenever they choose.

A third approach is to use an entirely different vector; while the country scrutizines airport safety; to examine completely different approaches such as tampering with water supplies; mining harbors used by huge cruise ships; perhaps spreading anthrax or other agents among the rescue volunteers (many of whom came from across the country; and most of whom will return, thus increasing dispersal); or even noticing that the President came, in person, to one site, and therefore planning an ambush with explosives or a rifleman (who presumably would not mind being cut to pieces by return fire from the Secret Service).

It'll help to be careful at an airport, but folks should remember that those *aren't* the only possible targets.


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-- The thing that goes bump in the night