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Whats your take on the garage game independant scene?
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You are right. With the hardcore games anyway. You can find tons of arcade style games from independents, but the companies like Malfador are an increasingly rare breed (and Malfador doesn't even exist anymore). We find it very hard to find games we think are worth publishing.
And most of the developers that are out there have expectations that are way beyond the reality of what is possible in the PC Strategy Game Industry. We get requests all the time from companies that want us to fund -- usually to the tune of 6 figures their strategy game (and not the whole game, just the last six months or so of development). A game that has that kind of overhead, won't make money -- the developer or the publisher, not even at retail.
When I was developing wargames for the retail market, this could happen although not very often. Back then a strategy title had about a one in twenty chance of making money at retail with a budget of around $500,000. Now, I bet it is one in 50 and the budget would need to be half that amount. There is a reason why the mainstream publishers are sticking with frnachises or going after movie themed products. They stand a chance, but even then the chance is probably no better than one in twenty.
So the outlook is grim, to say the least, for independent strategy companies. Still it can be done. Illwinter (Dominions Series) is on there way up the ladder -- at a stage that Malfador was at with SEII - really ahead of them, because I think they "get it" and have a plan that is working. Another good example is Digital Eel, they are growing.
But, those developers that think that going into retail with hardcore stratgy is going to make them money -- well that is very rare. Just watch what happens with SEV. If they use retail as their major avenue, it will be in the bargain bins within a month or so, and if not, well then we will have to see. Very few companies can make the retail market work, one that is doing so (but I still think there main income is from web sales) is Stardock. But they have a franchise product in Gal Civ.
I spent too many years at retail and know what that is like. Thus our philosophy at Shrapnel. I only hope that the devs that are out there, making strategy titles, can figure this whole thing out. Or there will be even fewer independents in the next several years.